Bubbler86 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 30 this AM with winds gusting into the 30's already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 28 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Looks like it's going to get into the 60's on the 16th and 17th. I was expecting it to be a lot colder this month but honestly it isn't really looking that different than normal now besides the next couple days being 5-10 below normal Funny thing about it is you bring this to someone's attention and either they glaze over the facts they claim something else or they say you're just being a weather weenie and yet fail to actually cast blame on everyone calling for code or snow and it never happens. I love snow as much as you guys do but sometimes you got to look in the mirror and realize hey you know it is in our ear models have been wrong with the cold for a couple of years they always push it back and we get like one or two days when it was supposed to be for a week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: After that cutter you referenced above, it looks quite cold as of now. Fair to question anything on the longer range though. Actually no on my forecast it still says it'll be in the upper 40s after the 17th 18th time frame our normal high is 45 that's still a few degrees above normal and even if the temperature will be colder shortly after they show that forecast date it was supposed to be the 14th and 15 I got colder before that it was a 10th now it's the 16th through 18th to see what's happening the cold air is getting pushed further and further back and then we're sitting here March 25th all the cold weather is a couple days away and it's got to be April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ruin said: Actually no on my forecast it still says it'll be in the upper 40s after the 17th 18th time frame our normal high is 45 that's still a few degrees above normal and even if the temperature will be colder shortly after they show that forecast date it was supposed to be the 14th and 15 I got colder before that it was a 10th now it's the 16th through 18th to see what's happening the cold air is getting pushed further and further back and then we're sitting here March 25th all the cold weather is a couple days away and it's got to be April The models show colder temperatures. Could they be wrong? Sure. The temps are forecast to be warmer for 2-3 days due to a low cutting to our west. Over this winter, LSV actual temps have pretty consistently been going above models temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 A few light flurries in Marysville this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The models show colder temperatures. Could they be wrong? Sure. The temps are forecast to be warmer for 2-3 days due to a low cutting to our west. Over this winter, LSV actual temps have pretty consistently been going above models temps. normally when temp guidance shows warmer or cold the local forecast normally almost follows that fore forecasts. can you give a explanation why they dont? Ive been watching temps on the 7 day the last 6 days and they keep showing at normal or above and then they did a about face this morning the same time frame yesterday was mid 40s now they are mid 50s. tho on the temp guidance its trying to push 30s into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ruin said: normally when temp guidance shows warmer or cold the local forecast normally almost follows that fore forecasts. can you give a explanation why they dont? Ive been watching temps on the 7 day the last 6 days and they keep showing at normal or above and then they did a about face this morning the same time frame yesterday was mid 40s now they are mid 50s. tho on the temp guidance its trying to push 30s into the area. From what I have seen, the normal NWS Zone forecast very much follow modeled temps. I think it is rare that an NWS met deviates much from modeled temps outside 24-36 hours in advance when some meso/local forecasting skill is shown. Right now, your local NWS forecast shows near 50 for the 16th and near 60 for the 17th because most models are showing a system cutting to the west. Prior to that it is below or near normal. A few days ago, my zone said snow for tomorrow, now it says rain...models changed their depiction of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 The 6z GFS & NAM both give many of us some light snow tomorrow night into early Monday. Lol, I will take some table scraps at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 That system was pretty much an under achiever. Nothing really laid on road surfaces. Some snow on the grass, but not much. Was raining at 10:00 pm last night. Currently 33 degrees with some wind. On to the next system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 5 minutes ago, pawatch said: That system was pretty much an under achiever. Nothing really laid on road surfaces. Some snow on the grass, but not much. Was raining at 10:00 pm last night. Currently 33 degrees with some wind. On to the next system. Did it do anything further NE out of PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Ruin said: Actually no on my forecast it still says it'll be in the upper 40s after the 17th 18th time frame our normal high is 45 that's still a few degrees above normal and even if the temperature will be colder shortly after they show that forecast date it was supposed to be the 14th and 15 I got colder before that it was a 10th now it's the 16th through 18th to see what's happening the cold air is getting pushed further and further back and then we're sitting here March 25th all the cold weather is a couple days away and it's got to be April Actually no your average high temperature on March 17 is 51.3 so upper 40s is below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Actually no your average high temperature on March 17 is 51.3 so upper 40s is below normal. LOL, I took his post as being right. I should have checked. I see the normal today for MDT is 49 (rounded). That means the forecast and modeled high temps at MDT are well BN every day over the next 5. Speaking of normal, it is not right now here. Wind chill of 18 and downright miserable out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 It’s a shame that this can’t be “simple” storm that tracks from this position in Tennessee to off of the coast of the DelMarVa to bring us a run of the mill 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 type of event. Instead, we have a complicated pattern that ends up mostly not working out for most of PA. Frustrating considering where we stood on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week when most of the models had us looking at 2 solid Advisory level events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Who's up for a snownado??? Pretty cool video of one here... https://fb.watch/jcianfrWmb/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, canderson said: Did it do anything further NE out of PA? Not really sure, some of them northern places don’t actually post snow information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 11, 2023 Author Share Posted March 11, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s a shame that this can’t be “simple” storm that tracks from this position in Tennessee to off of the coast of the DelMarVa to bring us a run of the mill 3 to 6 or 4 to 8 type of event. Instead, we have a complicated pattern that ends up mostly not working out for most of PA. Frustrating considering where we stood on Tuesday or Wednesday of this week when most of the models had us looking at 2 solid Advisory level events. This whole winter has been frustrating. I agree Blizz can’t get a Simple winter storm this year. Looks like we have to now wait for 23-24 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 18 minutes ago, paweather said: This whole winter has been frustrating. I agree Blizz can’t get a Simple winter storm this year. Looks like we have to now wait for 23-24 winter. We still have a couple of weeks of chances. The snow this week has hit northern PA, so it is getting closer than recent months. The pattern the next couple of weeks should give us chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Lac kawanna County... Vandling 0.1 NNE 4.1 in 0700 AM 03/11 COCORAHS 1 W Vandling 4.1 in 0855 AM 03/11 Trained Spotter Sterling - 22 3.5 in 0700 AM 03/11 COCORAHS I got about 3.5" up here in Clarks Green. I am at 1400' so that helped last night. Still light snow and 33. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 38 and windy. Feels colder out than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 There is snow cover this morning on the top half of the ridges on both sides of Marysville. It’s nice to see a rare Wintry scene from my yard for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Please…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 51 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Please…. We need to pass a collection plate around for Old Man Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 17 minutes ago, canderson said: We need to pass a collection plate around for Old Man Winter. Yes, I’d be good with a couple of inches of snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Actually no your average high temperature on March 17 is 51.3 so upper 40s is below normal. Actually saw the average high temps on local weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ruin said: Actually saw the average high temps on local weather Actually they would be wrong if that's what they said for those dates. Average high today is 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ruin said: Actually saw the average high temps on local weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 16 minutes ago, Ruin said: Actually saw the average high temps on local weather I challenged you to find something positive to share. Obviously that was too much to ask. If you can't find it in yourself to be positive, at least provide accurate information. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I challenged you to find something positive to share. Obviously that was too much to ask. If you can't find it in yourself to be positive, at least provide accurate information. Glass half empty on bad info is just bad all around. That chart I just posted....in 1900 the temp did not go above 20 on March 17th. Talk about "throw another log on the fire". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 High of 38 here today. Looks like MDT got to 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 50 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I challenged you to find something positive to share. Obviously that was too much to ask. If you can't find it in yourself to be positive, at least provide accurate information. ok positive to share it will now be 65 a day next week you can go for a nice drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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