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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023


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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm excited to see mood flakes tomorrow. Maybe even sticks on car rooftops that haven't been driven in a few hours. 

I'm honest. I haven't seen snowflakes but four or five times this year. Take the highlights. 

Yep I would rather see flakes coming down and melting then raindrops. 

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58 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

It eventually does pull in the cold air and drops like 8" on much of Lancaster County, but yeah, a very bizarre depiction.  A lot of changes yet with this one, me thinks. 

Just saw that - it will change many times but as depicted on THIS run we're on both the western and southern edge of decent snowfall. I'd love to see a thread-coverage win...at least for the entire LSV who has done nothing short of abysmal this year. 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Dumb question - what is the difference between a zone forecast and point and click? 

 

I picked downtown Harrisburg and the forecast on P&C is for less than a half inch. 

I think it is the same thing, here is what I see.  May not be afternoon updated.    I clicked right beside Harrisburg so a bit north of town. Capture.thumb.JPG.50fdb45fdd87b7fd662761443fd767be.JPG:

 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think it is the same thing, here is what I see.  May not be afternoon updated.    I clicked right beside Harrisburg so a bit north of town. Capture.thumb.JPG.50fdb45fdd87b7fd662761443fd767be.JPG:

 

 

 

Here's CTP's updated (noon today) snowfall forecast - everyone gets something except for...

 

you guessed it! Lancaster! :( 

 

Image

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(1/4) For snow-lovers in south-central PA, tomorrow's storm isn't it. There are just too many things "wrong" with the setup. First, surface temps tomorrow afternoon are going to be in the mid 30s N/W of I-81 to low 40s along the MD Line.. too high for much if any snow to stick..

 

(2/4) Next, a rain/snow mix will overspread the Lower Susquehanna Valley from southwest-to-northeast between ~7-11 AM before changing over to rain from south-to-north after midday. Here's the problem: precip prior to midday should generally be on the light side..

 

 

(3/4) Any AM light snow will struggle to overcome the strong March sun and high ground temps, making accumulation difficult if not impossible. Finally, the upper-level low (ULL) will track just to our north, and colder air/steadier precip are found north/east of a ULL's center..
 
(4/4) To sum it up, roadways will just be wet tomorrow.. great news for motorists! Areas S/E of I-76/Rt 15 will struggle to receive a coating of snow on non-paved surfaces, & 1-2" amounts farther N/W should be confined to higher terrain above 750 ft. Even that isn't a guarantee..
 
 
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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

CTP vs. Elliott - the showdown is hours away! 

LOL, I would not be calling for 2-4" near Harrisburg so quite surprising.  They even double down in their new AFD talking about 1-3 daytime tomorrow. 

Farther south, expecting rain to mix with snow for a few hours
Friday afternoon and evening, especially along and south of the
PA Turnpike. High temperatures pushing into the upper 30s to
near 40 should also lead to a bit more melting at the onset and
therefore slightly lower amounts - generally 1-3" with higher
amounts on ridgetops.

 

 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I'm excited to see mood flakes tomorrow. Maybe even sticks on car rooftops that haven't been driven in a few hours. 

I'm honest. I haven't seen snowflakes but four or five times this year. Take the highlights. 

dont look at the HH NAM.

You might wanna buy a snowglobe if you wanna see flakes flyin as you are now teetering on the r/s line.  Sauss n Blizz may be flaking while you are drinkin your sorrows away w/ white rain.

southern tier back to Adams county is out (save a few pitty flakes early on).  Mind you this is verbatim, but the north tick is not to be denied. 

Column is cool, but surface notsomuch. Precip rates/dews will help some overcome marginal surface, but not for all (like us southers)

nam3km_T2m_neus_27.png

nam3km_temp_adv_fgen_850_neus_28.png

 

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Ukie also has the Monday/Tuesday storm - looking at the maps for the Ukie, the first thing that comes to mind is the Boxing Day debacle about 10-12 years ago when I saw flurries, Philly received 8", and most of NJ had between 20-30".  (forecast for Lanco for that storm was for 6-12" and we were under a Winter Storm Warning the morning of the storm...but I saw nothing but a few scattered flakes) 

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19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Ukie also has the Monday/Tuesday storm - looking at the maps for the Ukie, the first thing that comes to mind is the Boxing Day debacle about 10-12 years ago when I saw flurries, Philly received 8", and most of NJ had between 20-30".  (forecast for Lanco for that storm was for 6-12" and we were under a Winter Storm Warning the morning of the storm...but I saw nothing but a few scattered flakes) 

That was a painful one.  I’d prefer not to repeat it!

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1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

That was a painful one.  I’d prefer not to repeat it!

 

Razor sharp western cutoff that was modeled to be 50-75 miles too far west. I filed that away for future reference - that was not the first time that happened in Lanco...I think it was March 2001 (?) we were forecast to receive up to 2 feet of snow...ended up with 2' of partly cloudy. 

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So im watching all the models on youtube these guys who do the weather stuff. one thing that really puzzles me they show models giving my area heavy snow for a few hours and mod snow for a few hours but we cant eek out a god darn inch? .9 for MDT? for tomorrow and this snow is said to go mostly over night tomorrow night?

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29 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Crazy. Shocked to see NWS calling for about 1" in Hagerstown.  A bit more in the higher elevations.

I was stuck behind one of the machines/trucks for a mile or so...4-5 white lines on the road.   Last time they did it, there was nothing though.   It will have to snow hard to lay on the road with the temps tomorrow.

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