paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Map in question: (maybe more falls after this @paweather) I was looking at TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 That is part of the continued confusion...the WB almost always have more than the Pivotal maps. That and Kuch vs. 10-1 sometimes. They are pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, anthonyweather said: They are pretty close . That first map you posted showed 3-4" for most of Lanco...this one shows 1-2" most of the county. Not at all a big deal but the maps really vary with TT usually being the worst IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Positive here is it’s not 60 degrees going in to this one like the other day. Night time lows in the 20s, day time low 40’s.Should be a lot “whiter” on road surfaces . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 That first map you posted showed 3-4" for most of Lanco...this one shows 1-2" most of the county. Not at all a big deal but the maps really vary with TT usually being the worst IMO. Honestly, 10:1 can’t be used in March 99% of the time, I prefer kuch, but that’s even stretching it. Snow depth may be more in line here . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 Now we go into suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Euro and GFS diverge greatly as we go into next week. Some semblance of a trough remains over/near the NE US on the Euro. GFS has a county wide ridge across the midland. Much of this caused by the Euro bomb you woupld think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Okay...time to fess up and come clean...I was NOT in meetings this morning. A friend took this pic of me out on my morning walk: 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Okay...time to fess up and come clean...I was NOT in meetings this morning. A friend took this pic of me out on my morning walk: Nice Rust Jacket! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Okay...time to fess up and come clean...I was NOT in meetings this morning. A friend took this pic of me out on my morning walk: Nice dream! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Nice Rust Jacket! That was taken yesterday in town - in advance of the 5-7' coming starting tomorrow... Ski area is now making plans on possibly being the first U.S. ski resort to not close during a calendar year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 How much are bags over 50 pounds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That was taken yesterday in town - in advance of the 5-7' coming starting tomorrow... Ski area is now making plans on possibly being the first U.S. ski resort to not close during a calendar year. How much are bags over 50 pounds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 Round 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Out in 10 day land, storm forming in the SE with a slightly negative trough starts to climb toward PA where temps are in the single digits and teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Out in 10 day land, storm forming in the SE with a slightly negative trough starts to climb toward PA where temps are in the single digits and teens. Superstorm 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Superstorm 2? The ITT's are like Rocky...they just keep coming. (Except on the GFS). JMA shows ITT1 actually a little south of some other guidance but has ITT2 cutting instead of the sloppy mess passing by to our south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 For wave 2, the Icon, Euro and CMC all featured a low getting captured as it climbed the coast...with varying 500 forecast all of which are too far North for us to get a KU so something to watch for on the next runs as to seeing the trough hopefully scotting through the central MA instead of further north. The GFS was on its own in not capturing the system. The Euro depiction was a lot dryer that one would have thought it would be with a low climbing almost due north from the NC Coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Euro depiction was a lot dryer that one would have thought it would be with a low climbing almost due north from the NC Coast. I'm not sure that the Euro is right with this, but let's play along and say that it is - given the location, track, and intensity, it's really hard to believe we wouldn't have gotten more snow out of that solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 HH HRRR has the Friday snow starting in the western and central LSV at rush hour again and snowing through its entire run which stopped at 1PM. 1-3" type snows I would guess though extrapolating on that. Surface temps 35 or under, Low in a similar position as other meso's just a colder column. Nam slightly improved but still more rain than snow in the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 8, 2023 Author Share Posted March 8, 2023 2 minor events if lucky then suppression then who knows Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 GFS comes in slightly later than HRRR for storm one but it comes down harder and has some high totals for the areas where it does not flip. This is Kuch. Better for west LSV, slightly worse for North LSV and similar for SE LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: GFS comes in slightly later than HRRR for storm one but it comes down harder and has some high totals for the areas where it does not flip. This is Kuch. Better for west LSV, slightly worse for North LSV and similar for SE LSV. Ouch for most of Lancaster/York... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Ouch for most of Lancaster/York... Fairly similar to 12Z not that it makes it any better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Looking over column thermals on the models at 850 and 925mb, there’s really good consensus on a snow column for pretty much anywhere in here for most/all of this Friday/Fri Night event. 850s stay well below zero anywhere in PA other than far SW PA and 925mb 0 line touches the PA/MD line briefly on some guidance. 700mb temps cool below -10ºC as the event evolves and the 700mb low tracks over PA, which could aid in ratios in the snow growth department. I know there’s obviously been very little to show in the LSV but the last 2-3 events have featured a colder than advertised column on onset that has allowed it to put some snow to the ground in parts of the Sus Valley that it wasn’t really in the forecast prior. This has a much better setup. Even though dying primary tracks thru PA, forced secondary development well southeast and flat trajectory of the primary ensure warm advection aloft likely won’t be a big issue and 850s hold below zero. Basically I think everyone will see snow falling, but I see a few potential issues as limiting accum factors. They’re somewhat tied together but surface temps, rates, and overall QPF. Models can print out mid 30s in the LSV at the surface or whatever and depending on timing they might be there before the event starts but if snow comes in at good enough rates you’re coming down to near or below freezing regardless, which will allow accums. I think the initial WAA stuff that comes in will be sufficient in that department, though there’s likely to be at least some elevational component. The other thing is QPF, that’s where the low track comes into play in this setup. I don’t think this dislodges the snow supporting snow column, but NW-SE primary track thru PA as it transfers to VA Beach/northern OBX will put the best QPF just to the north/northeast of the low track. Right now it would seem northern half or so of PA in best position for the highest QPF and the LSV/southern tier could be in a bit of a weak spot after the initial WAA precip. But that’s dependent on ultimate track and transfer timing. It seems like there will be some precip shield lingering overnight Friday somewhere in PA, where lighter rates will have an easier time accumulating. Could be another brief flare up of heavier precip (snow) in eastern PA as the coastal gets going well offshore as well, like the 12z Euro really suggested. That could help the Lanco folks. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 I really like the look of the 18z 3k NAM for all of CTP. The run ends at 60 hours Friday evening, so there would a more for the eastern part of the region to follow before it ends early Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm not sure that the Euro is right with this, but let's play along and say that it is - given the location, track, and intensity, it's really hard to believe we wouldn't have gotten more snow out of that solution. I agree 100% with you! If we are initially cold enough for snow, I don’t believe that we change to rain with a slightly offshore low track that is intensifying as it tracks from NC to NJ. If anything, the precip shield should expand & the column should cool with that Euro look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted March 8, 2023 Share Posted March 8, 2023 Just watching weather report on 6:30 ABC News. They showed storm moving east and on Friday, their map had all of PA in white and the word HEAVY centered right above the NY state border and SNOW centered right below it on the PA border. Wunderground still says 1.5 for us here in Williamsport. NWS says about an inch. I took a look at Scranton out of curiosity and "light accumulation" for them in NEPA, too. So will things change between now and Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Here is a recap of the 12z snow maps from the 3 major globals for the combined totals for both events as of next Tuesday. This is by far the best consensus that we have seen this season at this range with 2 events on tap over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 0z HRRR looks good at the end of its 48 hour run by Friday evening, with a little more to go after the run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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