Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 35 minutes ago, canderson said: Today is the first post 6 p.m. sunset in HBG of the year. All that means is that the sun will still be melting our snowfall later and later in the day. That's the thing with March snow...in December and early January, unless it's a very warm day, snowmelt is ending by 4pm as the sun gets too low to do any damage. In mid March, it can be 32 at 6:00pm and it's still dripping away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: GFS is gradually making moves towards the EPS...all we can ask for at this point. The EPS is remaining steady and I was hoping that the GFS camp would blink first. Yea so far so good, both at 500 and surface components. A day or two ago there was no storm on the board. This AM a cutter on March 10th and 11th which has disappeared with the GFS focusing on a different piece of energy/different timing. Finally, at 12Z we are left with a Miller situation. I am greedy and would like both March 10th and 15/16 to work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea so far so good, both at 500 and surface components. A day or two ago there was no storm on the board. This AM a cutter on March 10th and 11th which has disappeared with the GFS focusing on a different piece of energy/different timing. Finally, at 12Z we are left with a Miller situation. I am greedy and would like both March 10th and 15/16 to work out. You're not greedy; you're just an extreme weather hound, like the rest of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea so far so good, both at 500 and surface components. A day or two ago there was no storm on the board. This AM a cutter on March 10th and 11th which has disappeared with the GFS focusing on a different piece of energy/different timing. Finally, at 12Z we are left with a Miller situation. I am greedy and would like both March 10th and 15/16 to work out. Wild swings in OP runs are not unusual...I think that becomes even more magnified in March. There is going to be a push of cold air - and the energy potential seems very high. We don't have a long window but with each day I become more and more convinced that there will be a big storm in the east. What that translates to in our area is still a long way off from being decided. This is the first time I've been excited in 2 years...but trust me, I know very well that you can't shovel potential. We're still going to need some luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: You're not greedy; you're just an extreme weather hound, like the rest of us And that's why I'm excited. In mid March I don't want 3" of taters that melt in 45 minutes. It's time for big game hunting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: And that's why I'm excited. In mid March I don't want 3" of taters that melt in 45 minutes. It's time for big game hunting. MMM, mashed taters. I am hungry, bro. Wait, you were not excited in December when some prognosticators said it was the best pattern in years? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: You're not greedy; you're just an extreme weather hound, like the rest of us And I love the step-by-step analysis/PBP of how we got there with an occasional forecast thrown on the board. LOL. I had the high number for the souls brave enough to enter the March snowfall contest so some of this is greed in wanting to be to most close to right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And I love the step-by-step analysis/PBP of how we got there with an occasional forecast thrown on the board. LOL. I had the high number for the souls brave enough to enter the March snowfall contest so some of this is greed in wanting to be to most close to right. What a maverick you are! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: All that means is that the sun will still be melting our snowfall later and later in the day. That's the thing with March snow...in December and early January, unless it's a very warm day, snowmelt is ending by 4pm as the sun gets too low to do any damage. In mid March, it can be 32 at 6:00pm and it's still dripping away... What is this “snow” you mention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, canderson said: What is this “snow” you mention? This should help you out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: What a maverick you are! Haha. If we do not get one of the these two potentials to score, I Harden have a chance to even get to the point where my snow is Melton due to sun angle. Let's see what the models between 7:30 and 10:30 tonight say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: This should help you out: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow He will have to take off his Spinganista shaded glasses to read that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 PSU talking 1958 in the MA thread... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: PSU talking 1958 in the MA thread... Good catch. It is somewhat hard to find with all the negative posts in between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Euro @ 150 is going to be much father north than the GFS with the March 9th/10th winter weather threat. Still looks disorganized to start. Temps not ideal either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 With limited blocking, the 9th/10th event cuts just west of PA. A light winter event for most of PA. Possibly the cut that sets the stage for Winter Storm ITT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Toast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 As of late March 10th, the 540 live drives down into the Gulf as cold air plunges into the middle of the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: As of late March 10th, the 540 live drives down into the Gulf as cold air plunges into the middle of the US. Yep definitely gets cold but then dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Yep definitely gets cold but then dry. Going to need the energy in the west to round the base of this trough as it is departing. This is not an avocado, it is a watermelon. The potential ITT is there in the breadbasket at 240 but this is so drastically different from the 0Z Euro, I do not feel it is worth digging into it too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Going to need the energy in the west to round the base of this trough as it is departing. This is not an avocado, it is a watermelon. The potential ITT is there in the breadbasket at 240 but this is so drastically different from the 0Z Euro, I do not feel it is worth digging into it too much. Definitely some of the coldest air of winter looks to be coming. You would think we would get lucky with this cold shot but this year obviously has not been good to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 15 minutes ago, paweather said: Definitely some of the coldest air of winter looks to be coming. You would think we would get lucky with this cold shot but this year obviously has not been good to us. The cold is blunted a bit by the time of the year but would expect teens in the LSV and singles in colder spots with that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Talk about not just relying on models when making forecasts - almost everything I looked at had me getting to the mid to upper 60s by 3pm today. At 4:15pm I'm at my high for the day thus far at 56... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Talk about not just relying on models when making forecasts - almost everything I looked at had me getting to the mid to upper 60s by 3pm today. At 4:15pm I'm at my high for the day thus far at 56... Damn models. They have been sticking it to @paweather all season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Love the high-quality maps being thrown up on the MA board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Love the high-quality maps being thrown up on the MA board. Randy's was priceless. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I'm just going to drop this here and then see my way out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 46 minutes ago, Voyager said: I'm just going to drop this here and then see my way out... The guys in this thread have an APB out for you. You stole winter from them, just like the grinch stole Christmas. But I have a feeling you'll return winter back to them when we're getting thoughts and visions of spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 While March is the month that Spring begins it still brings wintry weather. While we only average about 6" of snow here in Chester County during March, we have had some of the largest storms we have ever experienced during this month. Below is the top 25 storms as recorded at Coatesville. You will note the March 18-20, 1958 storm is at the top of the list at 19" but in reality that figure was one of the lowest snow totals. This had everything to do with the changes in elevation in the County. The observations in Coatesville were taken at an elevation around 350 feet above sea level. Every 100 feet or so in additional elevation made a huge difference in snow totals. The modest increase in elevation reduced the temps just enough to produce a very heavy wet snow accumulation. This was due to temperatures at just about freezing through the entire event. As you can see in the NWS snow total map they produced back in 1958 there was a large zone of 30" to 40" and more of snow across Northwest Chester County and Southeast Berks County. This is due to elevations across much of NW Chesco at between 600ft to as much as 900 feet above sea level. In fact just across the border from here in NW Chester County at Morgantown they recorded the greatest snowfall in the history of Southeast PA with an incredible 50" of snow. The greatest officially reported total in Chester County was the 49" at Devault. Other notable amounts included the 40" at West Grove and the 36" of snow in West Chester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Top 25 March Snowstorms for Western Chester County Pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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