Bubbler86 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, paweather said: Yep was just going to mention heading east now. Not often we get to PBP 3 storms in a 240 run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not often we get to PBP 3 storms in a 240 run. Might as well catch up from all of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, paweather said: Might as well catch up from all of winter. Maybe this was one of your Ideas of March...more PBP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Maybe this was one of your Ideas of March...more PBP. Heck yeah could have been !!! LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Not often we get to PBP 3 storms in a 240 run. in March nonetheless 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 To these untrammeled eyes, each of the GFS, CMC, and Euro offer bountiful opportunities in the weeks ahead and either display multiple outright hits or are oh so close to very solid events for the forum. There is much to be ironed out but the potential is undoubtedly there. How can you be a weather enthusiast and not be at least a little excited by the pattern ahead. With the passing of every 12-hour shift, my intrigue grows. #WinterIsComing 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: To these untrammeled eyes, each of the GFS, CMC, and Euro offer bountiful opportunities in the weeks ahead and either display multiple outright hits or are oh so close to very solid events for the forum. There is much to be ironed out but the potential is undoubtedly there. How can you be a weather enthusiast and not be at least a little excited by the pattern ahead. With the passing of every 12-hour shift, my intrigue grows. #WinterIsComing Exactly though the highlighted word out did me today as to dictionary word of the day speak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: To these untrammeled eyes, each of the GFS, CMC, and Euro offer bountiful opportunities in the weeks ahead and either display multiple outright hits or are oh so close to very solid events for the forum. There is much to be ironed out but the potential is undoubtedly there. How can you be a weather enthusiast and not be at least a little excited by the pattern ahead. With the passing of every 12-hour shift, my intrigue grows. #WinterIsComing Steady as she goes - I've been excited for a few weeks now and it's awesome to see some threats that can pay off. Further, there might be something lurking that we haven't even seen modeled yet. #allaboardtheittlimited. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 CTP wants nothing to do with snow Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 29. Blustery, with a northwest wind 13 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 47. North wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. North wind 7 to 13 mph. Friday A chance of rain after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Night Rain. Low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Sunday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, paweather said: CTP wants nothing to do with snow Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 45. Breezy, with a northwest wind 18 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 29. Blustery, with a northwest wind 13 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 47. North wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. North wind 7 to 13 mph. Friday A chance of rain after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Night Rain. Low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Sunday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Monday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. All that matters is what MU says. FU or KU? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: All that matters is what MU says. FU or KU? or BO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 As if we didn't have enough reason to be excited, the 'ol NAVGEM has multiple good looks for us in the coming week! But seriously, is the Navy model just completely disregarded at this point? Didn't there used to be a handy adage about the NAV being the most progressive of the models? Feel free to hit me with a lifetime ban for even bringing this to the table haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: As if we didn't have enough reason to be excited, the 'ol NAVGEM has multiple good looks for us in the coming week! But seriously, is the Navy model just completely disregarded at this point? Didn't there used to be a handy adage about the NAV being the most progressive of the models? Feel free to hit me with a lifetime ban for even bringing this to the table haha. NAVGEM was the king of all kings for a good laugh back in the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: As if we didn't have enough reason to be excited, the 'ol NAVGEM has multiple good looks for us in the coming week! But seriously, is the Navy model just completely disregarded at this point? Didn't there used to be a handy adage about the NAV being the most progressive of the models? Feel free to hit me with a lifetime ban for even bringing this to the table haha. I am a model apologist, so I try to find the silver lining unless a bunch of people are inflating a model for no reason...and the NoGaps/Navgem seems more fitting for summer/'Cane season from what I have seen. I mentioned NoGaps because NavGem replaced it but not sure, winter weather wise, it has shed the NoGaps rep. Funny comment about the NavGem in this article. Even a "King Euro" mention. Did @paweather write this? https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2022/07/21/2022-hurricane-models-rankings-model-track-storm-season-florida-weathertiger/10113979002/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I am a model apologist, so I try to find the silver lining unless a bunch of people are inflating a model for no reason...and the NoGaps/Navgem seems more fitting for summer/'Cane season from what I have seen. I mentioned NoGaps because NavGem replaced it but not sure, winter weather wise, it has shed the NoGaps rep. Funny comment about the NavGem in this article. Even a "King Euro" mention. Did @paweather write this? https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2022/07/21/2022-hurricane-models-rankings-model-track-storm-season-florida-weathertiger/10113979002/ I'm pretty sure I did. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Long range meso wise, the 18Z Rgem moved toward the Nam with bringing Wave one in a bit north for the LSV but snow for much of PA otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 I hurts me that people are now grasping at storms 2 to almost 3 weeks out. we all want snow but sadly it isnt the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ruin said: I hurts me that people are now grasping at storms 2 to almost 3 weeks out. we all want snow but sadly it isnt the year We are talking about potential snows 3-5 days away (2 snows). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We are talking about potential snows 3-5 days away (2 snows). im talking about what im seeing overall like 13 16 and i think the early 20s time frame not really here. but like last nights storm we were never in the snow but i dont even think we got rain. the ground wasnt even damp when i got up at 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ruin said: im talking about what im seeing overall like 13 16 and i think the early 20s time frame not really here. but like last nights storm we were never in the snow but i dont even think we got rain. the ground wasnt even damp when i got up at 6 Your ruining my passion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Elliott just shared some thoughts - I'd say he picked some nice dates for his timeframe: (1/4) Mother Nature's version of #MarchMadness in the eastern U.S. begins today. A big pattern change.. featuring a pronounced west-based -NAO (Jet Stream blocking centered southwest of Greenland) and a progression toward western US ridging.. is underway.. (2/4) .. and will reach maturity between March 10-20. The high-latitude blocking suppresses the Jet Stream farther south into the mid-latitudes, and the subtle ridge in the West forces storm systems to track underneath the block instead of cutting into the Great Lakes.. (3/4) Add to this a highly-amplified Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave running wild through phases 8 and 1, and we have a recipe for below-normal temps and at least a couple opportunities for snow in southeastern PA and northern MD over the next two weeks.. (4/4) With that being said, snow-lovers need to root for the upper-level low responsible for the Fri/Sat storm to track farther south. If it doesn't, we'll have a "nuisance" event with a rain/snow mix and 1-3 inch snowfall amounts (at best) on grass.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 21 minutes ago, Ruin said: I hurts me that people are now grasping at storms 2 to almost 3 weeks out. we all want snow but sadly it isnt the year I'm challenging you to make a positive post about the weather. You got this... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ruin said: im talking about what im seeing overall like 13 16 and i think the early 20s time frame not really here. but like last nights storm we were never in the snow but i dont even think we got rain. the ground wasnt even damp when i got up at 6 Sometimes it is just luck. Parts of York had a ground whitener this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Elliott just shared some thoughts - I'd say he picked some nice dates for his timeframe: (1/4) Mother Nature's version of #MarchMadness in the eastern U.S. begins today. A big pattern change.. featuring a pronounced west-based -NAO (Jet Stream blocking centered southwest of Greenland) and a progression toward western US ridging.. is underway.. (2/4) .. and will reach maturity between March 10-20. The high-latitude blocking suppresses the Jet Stream farther south into the mid-latitudes, and the subtle ridge in the West forces storm systems to track underneath the block instead of cutting into the Great Lakes.. (3/4) Add to this a highly-amplified Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave running wild through phases 8 and 1, and we have a recipe for below-normal temps and at least a couple opportunities for snow in southeastern PA and northern MD over the next two weeks.. (4/4) With that being said, snow-lovers need to root for the upper-level low responsible for the Fri/Sat storm to track farther south. If it doesn't, we'll have a "nuisance" event with a rain/snow mix and 1-3 inch snowfall amounts (at best) on grass.. The GFS and Meso's need to get with the program and follow advice #4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The GFS and Meso's need to get with the program and follow advice #4. I think anything from wave #1 is a big time bonus at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I think anything from wave #1 is a big time bonus at this point. Maybe but I want it all. :-). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Some drastic changes in how the energy comes out for ITT3/ITT4 on the GFS. Going to end up bombastic or a heartbreaker vs. the common progression before. Edit-MA/LSV Special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 51 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Elliott just shared some thoughts - I'd say he picked some nice dates for his timeframe: (4/4) With that being said, snow-lovers need to root for the upper-level low responsible for the Fri/Sat storm to track farther south. If it doesn't, we'll have a "nuisance" event with a rain/snow mix and 1-3 inch snowfall amounts (at best) on grass.. They have all been rain snow mixes this season. Not great for cleaning up but at least some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS cooking up a whopper for ITT5 though the H is not positioned as good as we would want. #300+hourmodelissues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Saw two trash cans floating down the river. It’s damn windy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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