paweather Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 hour ago, canderson said: CTP at tis time has removed any precip mentions. I never expected snow but no rain? That’d be a whole new level of fail! Here is what I have: Friday Night Rain likely before 1am, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, paweather said: Here is what I have: Friday Night Rain likely before 1am, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with Ah they added a chance of rain back overnight Friday. Probably just a computer data thing that had taken it out when I looked very early this am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Notable jump N on nooner NAM's for tonights event. From 18z yesterday to 12z that's about 75-100ish mile jump. Not surprised, and largely why I wasnt jacked up about it, as it never really looked good for us/true central (yes, true central likely sees some, but not much to get giddy about). Pawatch to Bradford/ county and points E should have a nice little event, but something to remember as this good period may be looming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Can't wait for next week to add another hour onto model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3K Nam now brings accumulating snow into Lanco over the next 24 hours...for the MJS car topper request this AM. FV3, HRRR and 3K all on board for Lanco to see something. Rgem not so much. The main band on the 3K is farther north than the other Meso's I looked at. This wave was a N PA mauler late week which folded to NY only system only to come back and now POTENTIALLY get snow into SE PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 12Z Icon forms a low (ITT1) off the Southern VA/ N NC coast this weekend but snow is confined to far East PA where the rates allow overcoming of warm boundary layers. Just read a tweet from JB who said this will/could be the 3rd coldest March ever and the coldest since 1960. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 33 minutes ago, paweather said: Can't wait for next week to add another hour onto model runs. I cant wait for the winter to end....and give mo nature a year to reset in hopes of a better than ratter for '23-24. Even though were getting the cold to come, the pattern just doesn't look conducive to anything big snow wise. Not saying that it cant happen whatsoever, but looking at the models/evolution just doesn't give me a tingly feeling. Hoping my feeling is wrong and you all are sittin on the train looking at perty white landscape, but I guess I'm just jaded, and from my view, it just isnt screamin potential that some here are seeing. Pattern appears to remain progressive enough that nothing big can bomb (view 500 ens loops and trough axis), but surely we may score some nickel/dimes in the coming cold. Thats where my head is at anyway, but mind you I have a shitton of congestion in it right now, so that may by whats clouding my view. I 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 12Z GFS spreads moderate snow through much of PA Friday afternoon into the evening. Much of the LSV and SE a bit warm and a mix or rain. Primary makes it too far North and West to hope for a big coastal development scenario for us with ITT1 as the low spins up off thr NJ coast. CMC was better than 0Z but both ITT1 and ITT2 start to spin up too far to our east as in both cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 LOL's. Believe whatever you want. Just posting what the map shows. I'll "enjoy my typical 7 snowflakes. Snow maps largely N of where they were at 18z yesterday. While i typically enjoy every snowflake I see, I'm about tired of being able to count them on my 4 appendages...and yes, on occasion I may need to use my 5th. Seems fiiting for this winter of getting the shaft. 18z from yesterday. 12z today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z GFS spreads moderate snow through much of PA Friday afternoon into the evening. Much of the LSV and SE a bit warm and a mix or rain. Primary makes it too far North and West to hope for a big coastal development scenario for us with ITT1 as the low spins up off thr NJ coast. CMC was better than 0Z but both ITT1 and ITT2 start to spin up too far to our east as in both cases. 995 Low North and East Yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Both the GFS and CMC were further south than their previous runs and pretty close to something decent for C-PA. Still awhile to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Both the GFS and CMC were further south than their previous runs and pretty close to something decent for C-PA. Still awhile to go. Yea, I agree improvements on both. The resulting low on this run of the GFS mauls Southern NE as it stalls/tucks. I think we need this displaced even further south for a big snow here...and to transfer earlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, paweather said: 995 Low North and East Yuck! 12z is an absolutely perfect depiction of a CTP screw job. Primary holds onto the lakes (jacks our thermals) and they primary pops off NJ coast (way too far N and E for us to get any coastal loving)...and we get shafted....dry shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Both the GFS and CMC were further south than their previous runs and pretty close to something decent for C-PA. Still awhile to go. Hope you guys are right but I have this blah feeling right now for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 This theory hasn’t worked all year, but I’m sticking with “I don’t want to be bullseyed 110 hours out”. In the past, there have been times that the block has forced adjustments in track further south on each subsequent model suite. I’m rolling with that for now! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Both the GFS and CMC were further south than their previous runs and pretty close to something decent for C-PA. Still awhile to go. That is the only way this storm evolution can give us a chance. Need primary further south and secondary pop further south as well. Yes, that can happen as the block may force it under, but verbatim todays nooners are nothing great. You need to see that trend continue in the next couple days. That's what I'll be watching for anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Hope you guys are right but I have this blah feeling right now for snow. If you have that feeling, then your gut is learning the game. Like I just stated, keep an eye on primary and potential shift south in coming runs. IF that happens, it's your block pressing the boundary further south, and that holds the keys to the doors on the snowtrain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: This theory hasn’t worked all year, but I’m sticking with “I don’t want to be bullseyed 110 hours out”. In the past, there have been times that the block has forced adjustments in track further south on each subsequent model suite. I’m rolling with that for now! Well said bud. We need this well below us...not on top of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: If you have that feeling, then your gut is learning the game. Like I just stated, keep an eye on primary and potential shift south in coming runs. IF that happens, it's your block pressing the boundary further south, and that holds the keys to the doors on the snowtrain. Yeah as much as I want to feel it right now it is like nothing is changing other than we are / will get colder for a period of time. But otherwise, nothing else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 ITT2 has no real way to climb later in the GFS run. It really tries after it goes over Florida and sits off the SE coast for several panels. Mixed news for the spring flingers as the suppression is generally caused by a cold dome of high pressure/quite broad trough in the NE corner of the US. The trough is initially positively tilted which is not good for big storm chances of course. By the time it goes neutral it is to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 14 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Well said bud. We need this well below us...not on top of us. If that’s a reference to Bud Bundy you win today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: ITT2 has no real way to climb later in the GFS run. It really tries after it goes over Florida and sits off the SE coast for several panels. Mixed news for the spring flingers as the suppression is generally caused by a cold dome of high/quite broad trough of the NE corner of the US. The trough is initially positively tilted which is not good for big storm chances of course. By the time it goes neutral it is to our east. My fear in rooting for ITT2 is that one could be easily squashed by ITT1. The spacing is pretty bad. Based on the season so far, we’ll figure out a way to whiff on both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 29 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 12z is an absolutely perfect depiction of a CTP screw job. Primary holds onto the lakes (jacks our thermals) and they primary pops off NJ coast (way too far N and E for us to get any coastal loving)...and we get shafted....dry shafted. It really is. All you can do is laugh. Luckily still some more time for things to "resolve". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Through 282 the gulf with another Low heading East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 I am choosing to lock in the Ukie at range. Sue me. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: It really is. All you can do is laugh. Luckily still some more time for things to "resolve". Yeah there is, but if one looks at the 500's as i suggested a bit ago, there is a rather progressive look to the trough axix, so one needs to factor that in when thinking of what may/may not happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 13 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: My fear in rooting for ITT2 is that one could be easily squashed by ITT1. The spacing is pretty bad. Based on the season so far, we’ll figure out a way to whiff on both. Yep, they are really close together. To hope for two potential phases in that short of time is not likely so they both go other places than we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 50 and sunny at 12:25. Wish I could go for a walk but too busy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: I am choosing to lock in the Ukie at range. Sue me. I'm all in after looking at the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 If this were 75-100 miles further south it would be very very good. Typically not a lot to ask for 100+ out but we all know the drill this year: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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