pawatch Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 7 hours ago, MAG5035 said: It might not matter for most in here but that Monday night event is intriguing, especially for the IPT folks and maybe atomix. Only the Euro really took the snow swath thru the heart C-PA up until the last few runs where other guidance is focusing northern third to half of PA after mainly being PA/NY border and north. Low tracks just south of PA but cold is marginal. Best QPF swath will run along a thin ribbon of F-gen forcing, wherever that may set up. Best bet is probably above I-80 and maybe dropping under that some in eastern PA but if the boundary trends south a bit this could get places like UNV and middle Sus between MDT and IPT more involved. Would be a quick hitter but could be some good rates (and respectable ratios) within that F-gen forcing induced band. Guidance is putting up some pretty significant snow totals. I dunno about widespread warning amounts in northern PA but most non Euro guidance in fact has just that. NAM and new GFS op have a swath of 10”+. Certainly a swath of advisories look to be a pretty good likelihood. I see that they upped that overnight. Was snow but no accumulation Thanks Mag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 A cold frosty 24 this morning. What happened to our weekend storm, NWS has nothing in their forecast this weekend. Should we just throw in the towel? Side note a lot of the migrating birds have returned. I see the Robin's are back. And yesterday I seen the phoebe has returned. Also the peepers were singing yesterday afternoon. So spring is basically here, according to our feathered friends. Also the dogs had their 1st groundhog kill last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 The 0z Euro & Canadian both now are keying in on the second wave idea next Monday as the more significant Winter storm chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Winter Weather Advisory for us tonight in Williamsport. Wasn't expecting this until I just read this page a few minutes ago, then checked out local weather. We are supposed to hit 48 at 4:00. Description ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST TUESDAY... WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations averaging between 2 and 4 inches in the valleys and to the south of Interstate 80, with locally as much as 6 inches across the higher terrain between Interstate 80 and Route 6 in the Northern Tier counties of Pennsylvania. WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Tuesday. IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute. ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The snow will initially be wet with accumulations prior to dusk being highly elevation dependent since temperatures at the onset of snow will be in the 30s to around 40 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Frosty 25 this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Frosty 25 this AM. Frosty 30 here in Maytown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Still time to hop onboard the ITT winter storm window, which opens on Friday and runs through March 20th. Looks like multiple chances to score beginning over the weekend with chances increasing early to mid next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z Euro & Canadian both now are keying in on the second wave idea next Monday as the more significant Winter storm chance. "The wave behind the wave". Pattern aligns better with this - colder air is more established than wave #1 so we just need the precip to attack it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: "The wave behind the wave". Pattern aligns better with this - colder air is more established than wave #1 so we just need the precip to attack it. Maybe we can get lucky & score some with both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Maybe we can get lucky & score some with both? Be thrilled to get something from one of them - we could be too warm for wave #1 and wave #2 could very well be suppressed/off the coast if there's not enough spacing for it move up. Pattern still looks great to me - I mean, we're going to be seeing multiple chances over the next 2 weeks but there's a path to heartache. Potential can't be shoveled and we go on the clock soon...and it'll be a running clock with no timeouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Be thrilled to get something from one of them - we could be too warm for wave #1 and wave #2 could very well be suppressed/off the coast if there's not enough spacing for it move up. Pattern still looks great to me - I mean, we're going to be seeing multiple chances over the next 2 weeks but there's a path to heartache. Potential can't be shoveled and we go on the clock soon...and it'll be a running clock with no timeouts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Be thrilled to get something from one of them - we could be too warm for wave #1 and wave #2 could very well be suppressed/off the coast if there's not enough spacing for it move up. Pattern still looks great to me - I mean, we're going to be seeing multiple chances over the next 2 weeks but there's a path to heartache. Potential can't be shoveled and we go on the clock soon...and it'll be a running clock with no timeouts. My concern all winter long we had a couple of good patterns only to lay an egg. I hope this isn't another. If so, Happy Easter! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Be thrilled to get something from one of them - we could be too warm for wave #1 and wave #2 could very well be suppressed/off the coast if there's not enough spacing for it move up. Pattern still looks great to me - I mean, we're going to be seeing multiple chances over the next 2 weeks but there's a path to heartache. Potential can't be shoveled and we go on the clock soon...and it'll be a running clock with no timeouts. I don't know if penalties would help out the game at this point. But I know we're all experiencing "delay of game penalty" right now. Where is Patrick Mahomes to lead us to the promised land? Yes I'm rooting for at least one storm a big one at that, to get us into true spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I resonate with that. I'm riding this baby through - still insist this is the best chance locally for something plowable since 2021. I haven't had my shovel outside in 26 months. It's going to snow in the east and probably a lot in quite a few locations... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, paweather said: My concern all winter long we had a couple of good patterns only to lay an egg. I hope this isn't another. If so, Happy Easter! Meh - we've had ADVERTISED good patterns - I haven't seen anything in a couple of years to get excited about. It doesn't always snow in actual good patterns, either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Hey, I could very well be wrong and every one of you can tell me I was foolish for getting excited. I willingly put myself out there and made a bold prediction. I'll live with the consequences either way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Well well, things have trended in a more intriguing direction for tonight's snowfall. Boundary temps are an issue but it's possible I could wake up to some white on certain surfaces. Certainly I think once you get into northern Dauphin/Perry counties and beyond this should be a nice little event to wake up to. Kicks-off this upcoming period on the right foot. Of which there is still much to be settled, but man there is going to be storms and snow somewhere, and that's really all we can ask for. @canderson I feel bad for your little yellow rose, gonna be one heck of miserable March once we settle into this upcoming pattern. I suspect there will be a lot of unhappy flora in the weeks ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Well well, things have trended in a more intriguing direction for tonight's snowfall. Boundary temps are an issue but it's possible I could wake up to some white on certain surfaces. Certainly I think once you get into northern Dauphin/Perry counties and beyond this should be a nice little event to wake up to. Kicks-off this upcoming period on the right foot. Of which there is still much to be settled, but man there is going to be storms and snow somewhere, and that's really all we can ask for. @canderson I feel bad for your little yellow rose, gonna be one heck of miserable March once we settle into this upcoming pattern. I suspect there will be a lot of unhappy flora in the weeks ahead. I endorse this post in full. And you make a great point - admittedly, I've been forward focused for the LSV. Best wishes/congratulations to many of our N & NE friends who will get a nice snowfall in a matter of hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Meh - we've had ADVERTISED good patterns - I haven't seen anything in a couple of years to get excited about. It doesn't always snow in actual good patterns, either. Oh I know, we had some cold around this year for a short period of time but dry. Let's hope for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 @Itstrainingtime it just never ends out west this year...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I endorse this post in full. And you make a great point - admittedly, I've been forward focused for the LSV. Best wishes/congratulations to many of our N & NE friends who will get a nice snowfall in a matter of hours. The WWWD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: @Itstrainingtime it just never ends out west this year...... Power has been out in Mammoth Lakes since 2:30am yesterday morning from the latest blizzard - sounds like the town picked up another 30-40" from the "scattered snow showers" that were forecast. Looking likely that they pick up another 4 to 7 feet this coming weekend. It's not even fun for them anymore - there's no where to go with it, roofs are collapsing, supplies are exhausted, etc. They're crying uncle but the snow machine won't shut off. Assuming we can make it (starting to wonder) I'm going to see more snow in 10 weeks than I'd ever dream about seeing in my lifetime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Wow it very well might not even rain Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Wow it very well might not even rain Friday and Saturday. Yes that is certainly one of the possible outcomes. Everything is on the table at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Power has been out in Mammoth Lakes since 2:30am yesterday morning from the latest blizzard - sounds like the town picked up another 30-40" from the "scattered snow showers" that were forecast. Looking likely that they pick up another 4 to 7 feet this coming weekend. It's not even fun for them anymore - there's no where to go with it, roofs are collapsing, supplies are exhausted, etc. They're crying uncle but the snow machine won't shut off. Assuming we can make it (starting to wonder) I'm going to see more snow in 10 weeks than I'd ever dream about seeing in my lifetime. I have been watching youtube videos from out there. i watch them on my big screen and not my phone, so i get the full affect 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yes that is certainly one of the possible outcomes. Everything is on the table at this point. CTP at tis time has removed any precip mentions. I never expected snow but no rain? That’d be a whole new level of fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 16 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I have been watching youtube videos from out there. i watch them on my big screen and not my phone, so i get the full affect I've been doing the same. Some unbelievable snows out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Euro control has to be right one time this winter, right? RIGHT??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Heres what we have to hang our hat on, cause the other signals aren't overwhelmingly awesome. This hi amp move into 8/1/2 is really winters "last" hurrah. While we've had other decent patterns where several tellies have looked favorable, we just weren't able to offset the base state this season, and MJO wise, none have had the magninute of this one. Hoping this can get it done quick cause other tellies are showing less favorable looks beyond next week, and that coupled w/ typical climo as we approach spring, says we typically need more help to get something good to happen. I'm happy to see this, but am not sold that it alone is enough as we get into mid march. A month ago yeah maybe. I hope you all enjoy the ride on the ITT Express...and save a seat in the back for me, I may buy a last minute ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 12Z HRRR Kuch for tonight and daytime tomorrow..like yesterday, this is in two waves though wave 2 fizzles while entering the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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