paweather Posted March 5, 2023 Author Share Posted March 5, 2023 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z EPS snow map for the next weekend period shows we are all in the game! Thanks Blizz let’s hope the GFS comes around and we have more of a consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Today and tomorrow should be above normal high temperatures with temps reaching the low 50's. Rain maybe mixed with some snow tomorrow night will start a trend toward cooler weather for the rest of the week. Some models hint at a major snowstorm arriving on Friday night into the weekend...but we have seen this movie before and it will likely change by game time. The records for today: High 76 (1964) / Low 7 (1978) / Precipitation 2.26" (1920) / Snow 9.5" (1902) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Fantastic 0z EPS run with the coastal redevelopment getting going much further south towards the Outer Banks & then moving northeast. We are very much in the game! Given my dynamic pattern, I do believe this is a plausible outcome...however, there is a VERY high bust/boom potential with this for all of the obvious reasons. At least this scenario as depicted makes meteorological sense and isn't some crazy model solution that has no chance of verifying. It's going to be a week full of many solutions and wild emotional swings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Given my dynamic pattern, I do believe this is a plausible outcome...however, there is a VERY high bust/boom potential with this for all of the obvious reasons. At least this scenario as depicted makes meteorological sense and isn't some crazy model solution that has no chance of verifying. It's going to be a week full of many solutions and wild emotional swings. Great points, let’s see where 12z takes us on the roller coaster today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 After a morning low of 34, it has skyrocketed to 52 at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Gorgeous Sunday. 51 at 11:10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 53 at 11:43. Mostly sunny with a moderate breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Michaux Brewery. 49 and sunny nooners. Actually windier here than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Michaux Brewery. 49 and sunny nooners. Actually windier here than yesterday. Where is that located? Love that area and might want to check it out. Up to 56 here. Breezy, but maybe not breezier than yesterday's breeze. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Where is that located? Love that area and might want to check it out. Up to 56 here. Breezy, but maybe not breezier than yesterday's breeze. LOL It’s right on 16 in R-ville 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 59 at 1:30. Forecast high was 53 iirc. It’s hot in the sun. Had to meow and weed eat. My Texas yellow rose started to bloom today. It usually does that in late April. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 We are still at the range to lean on the ensembles for the next weekend storm chance. The 12z GEFS still keeps us in the game. It shows the secondary low development near the Outer Banks or DelMarVa and then crawling northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Here is the 12z GEFS snow map for the next weekend period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 34 minutes ago, canderson said: 59 at 1:30. Forecast high was 53 iirc. It’s hot in the sun. Had to meow and weed eat. My Texas yellow rose started to bloom today. It usually does that in late April. . Woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 51 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Where is that located? Love that area and might want to check it out. Up to 56 here. Breezy, but maybe not breezier than yesterday's breeze. LOL Yea, cashmason got it. Not really in the forest. It is literally two miles from my house. Lots of eats and beers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 45 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, cashmason got it. Not really in the forest. It is literally two miles from my house. Lots of eats and beers. That’s how I feel. A hybrid of names 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 EPS looks really good for next weekend - actually about the best it's looked yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: EPS looks really good for next weekend - actually about the best it's looked yet... I totally agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 The 12z EPS is a great mean low track for the CTP snow chance next weekend. The secondary low develops near the Outer Banks of NC & then strengthens as it reaches the DelMarVa. Great cluster of lows to the west of the mean track. We don’t want the low too far west, but too far East like the Euro Op run would not be ideal either. Lots of time, but this 12z EPS run keeps us very much in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Here is the 12z EPS snow map for the next weekend period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 Got into my car and it was so hot I felt like I was melting. Great day to have the windows down lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 59 @330pm. The wind finally stopped. Made it difficult to try and do yard work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 59 here as well - another overachiever today with the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Coop_Mason said: That’s how I feel. A hybrid of names If you have been in, they highlight doing stuff out in the forest. The one thing I do not like is no table service for ordering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 NAM and HRRR both actualy have two "bands" of scattered snow or snow rain mix for the LSV Monday Night and then again Tue. GFS has ITT-1, 2, 3 and 4 (not necessarily snow on each but potential storms and potential snow.) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 18z GEFS ensemble still looks good for CTP snow chances next weekend. The mean low track is similar to 12z EPS with the secondary low taking over in the DelMarVa. Several of the individual ensemble members would work well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 18z EPS keeps us in the game as well for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 It might not matter for most in here but that Monday night event is intriguing, especially for the IPT folks and maybe atomix. Only the Euro really took the snow swath thru the heart C-PA up until the last few runs where other guidance is focusing northern third to half of PA after mainly being PA/NY border and north. Low tracks just south of PA but cold is marginal. Best QPF swath will run along a thin ribbon of F-gen forcing, wherever that may set up. Best bet is probably above I-80 and maybe dropping under that some in eastern PA but if the boundary trends south a bit this could get places like UNV and middle Sus between MDT and IPT more involved. Would be a quick hitter but could be some good rates (and respectable ratios) within that F-gen forcing induced band. Guidance is putting up some pretty significant snow totals. I dunno about widespread warning amounts in northern PA but most non Euro guidance in fact has just that. NAM and new GFS op have a swath of 10”+. Certainly a swath of advisories look to be a pretty good likelihood. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Great write-up. BGM picking up on the "thread the needle" for a swath of heavy snow currently modeled north of Scranton and somewhere in the Twin Tiers. Fingers crossed for my backyard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z GEFS ensemble still looks good for CTP snow chances next weekend. The mean low track is similar to 12z EPS with the secondary low taking over in the DelMarVa. Several of the individual ensemble members would work well for us. We're likely to crack 80 out here for the first time since October this weekend, so hopefully that bodes well for your snow chances back there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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