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The Ides of March end of Winter 2023


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Today and tomorrow should be above normal high temperatures with temps reaching the low 50's. Rain maybe mixed with some snow tomorrow night will start a trend toward cooler weather for the rest of the week. Some models hint at a major snowstorm arriving on Friday night into the weekend...but we have seen this movie before and it will likely change by game time.
The records for today: High 76 (1964) / Low 7 (1978) / Precipitation 2.26" (1920) / Snow 9.5" (1902)
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5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Fantastic 0z EPS run with the coastal redevelopment getting going much further south towards the Outer Banks & then moving northeast.

We are very much in the game! 

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Given my dynamic pattern, I do believe this is a plausible outcome...however, there is a VERY high bust/boom potential with this for all of the obvious reasons. At least this scenario as depicted makes meteorological sense and isn't some crazy model solution that has no chance of verifying.

It's going to be a week full of many solutions and wild emotional swings.

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24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Given my dynamic pattern, I do believe this is a plausible outcome...however, there is a VERY high bust/boom potential with this for all of the obvious reasons. At least this scenario as depicted makes meteorological sense and isn't some crazy model solution that has no chance of verifying.

It's going to be a week full of many solutions and wild emotional swings.

Great points, let’s see where 12z takes us on the roller coaster today.

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The 12z EPS is a great mean low track for the CTP snow chance next weekend.

The secondary low develops near the Outer Banks of NC & then strengthens as it reaches the DelMarVa.

Great cluster of lows to the west of the mean track. We don’t want the low too far west, but too far East like the Euro Op run would not be ideal either.

Lots of time, but this 12z EPS run keeps us very much in the game.

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It might not matter for most in here but that Monday night event is intriguing, especially for the IPT folks and maybe atomix. Only the Euro really took the snow swath thru the heart C-PA up until the last few runs where other guidance is focusing northern third to half of PA after mainly being PA/NY border and north. Low tracks just south of PA but cold is marginal. Best QPF swath will run along a thin ribbon of F-gen forcing, wherever that may set up. Best bet is probably above I-80 and maybe dropping under that some in eastern PA but if the boundary trends south a bit this could get places like UNV and middle Sus between MDT and IPT more involved. 

Would be a quick hitter but could be some good rates (and respectable ratios) within that F-gen forcing induced band. Guidance is putting up some pretty significant snow totals. I dunno about widespread warning amounts in northern PA but most non Euro guidance in fact has just that. NAM and new GFS op have a swath of 10”+. Certainly a swath of advisories look to be a pretty good likelihood.  

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8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

18z GEFS ensemble still looks good for CTP snow chances next weekend.

The mean low track is similar to 12z EPS with the secondary low taking over in the DelMarVa. 
Several of the individual ensemble members would work well for us.

We're likely to crack 80 out here for the first time since October this weekend, so hopefully that bodes well for your snow chances back there.

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