canderson Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 53 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I‘m far more worried abut roof shingles and siding blowing off and trees falling down than frisbee golf. Hour and hours of 50-60 mph winds cause a lot of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, canderson said: I‘m far more worried abut roof shingles and siding blowing off and trees falling down than frisbee golf. Hour and hours of 50-60 mph winds cause a lot of damage. Yeah looks legit but they tend to only do sps or wind advisories in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Yeah looks legit but they tend to only do sps or wind advisories in most cases. As sad as it sounds, lots of people hope for shingle damage so they can get new roofs. Each person has their own perspective. Roof replacement is expensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Guys when was the spring wind event from a few years back? I can’t remember the year or dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 2019 ish I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 16 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: 2019 ish I think 2017 we had one that ripped all my fascia off. I remember vividly because I couldn't get anyone to fix for a week and the aluminum dangling and hitting the house could be heard probably three streets over. We had to sleep at a friends' place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Kind of a long video...frustration is setting in even for the hardcore folks who have lived in the mountains for years - some of this guy's footage in his neighborhood is beyond surreal: This was filmed yesterday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 High Wind Watch hoisted for all of MD. CTP will follow suit, which makes sense as this wind event will be the worst we've seen in years and years it appears. Hey that rhymes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 13 minutes ago, canderson said: High Wind Watch hoisted for all of MD. CTP will follow suit, which makes sense as this wind event will be the worst we've seen in years and years it appears. Hey that rhymes. Sterling must not have updated their maps because the only watches that I see currently issued in MD is in the western part of the state - most of MD has nothing at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sterling must not have updated their maps because the only watches that I see currently issued in MD is in the western part of the state - most of MD has nothing at this time. Ahh I misread their notice (to be fair it’s line 20 lines long) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 I’ve talked since last weekend about tomorrow’s severe weather in the Midwest. What’s coming Tuesday for them as modeled is worse than 2011. That system will hit PA next Wednesday, where if timing is right would create strong storms here as it’ll hit our warm sector (highs next Wednesday might hit mid 70s in the LSV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 30, 2023 Share Posted March 30, 2023 Does anyone know if the live weather balloon radiosondes/soundings are limited to just IAD and Pitt as to our local offerings? This page seems to indicate as such. The SkewT's are just for those two locations. Upper-Air page: RAL Real-Time Weather (ucar.edu) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 16 hours ago, mahantango#1 said: K. Schlegel Fruit Farm Farm We are: - Third Party IPM Certified - Eco-Apple Growers - PA Preferred - Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) Certified Members of: - Red Tomato - Buy Fresh Buy Local We Use: - Mating Disrution - NO organophospates, carbamates, or pyrethroids 1426 State Route 147 Dalmatia, PA 17017 http://www.kschlegelfruitfarm.com/ March 24, 2023 the apple and peach tree buds are pushing. Wondering if these are effected from the current cold this morning. This orchard is about 3 miles as the crow flies from me. As long as the buds are still closed there fine . They probably also spray with a anti transpirant when needed . Unlike weather I know my Ag and Aq shit pretty good, been living it all my life. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 If I copied YouTubers forecasts word for word and then toted their forecasts as my own I sure as hell wouldn't ask for a cookie too. The April 2011 outbreak was a three day event that was also talked about several days in advance and the wording was far more intimidating than the spc has to this point. A big day next tuesday sure, but the only people I see comparing the potential to 2011 are youtube weenies. Unfortunately because of the way youtube works and pays it's the worst place to get accurate forecasts days in advance unless you want to think every storm is the next superstorm. I think YouTube really raised people's expectations this winter way too high and hyped storms to preposterous levels and it spread from there. As the western trough ejects on Day 6/Tuesday, potential significant severe thunderstorms will be possible far eastern OK toward southeast MO and vicinity. Rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place amid steep midlevel lapse rates courtesy of an EML advecting across the region from the Mexican Plateau. This will supply plenty of instability with stronger vertical shear accompanying the ejecting trough. There is some uncertainty among medium range guidance on the northern extent of better moisture return and hence severe potential. This is mostly driven by differences in surface low, dryline and warm front positions related to somewhat different ejection of the upper trough. However, guidance is in very good agreement with respect to the southern portion of the risk area. Supercells capable of all severe hazards, some potentially significant, will be possible. In 2011 it was clear by day 6 that something historic was very possible at least according to Dr Greg Forbes and the spc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 6 hours ago, canderson said: I’ve talked since last weekend about tomorrow’s severe weather in the Midwest. What’s coming Tuesday for them as modeled is worse than 2011. That system will hit PA next Wednesday, where if timing is right would create strong storms here as it’ll hit our warm sector (highs next Wednesday might hit mid 70s in the LSV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Mar 31, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook Updated: Fri Mar 31 05:26:34 UTC 2023 (Print Version | | ) Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table Categorical Tornado Wind Hail Pop. Cities CWAs RFCs Interstates Counties ARTCC FEMA Tribal Categorical Day2 0600Z Outlook Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area SLIGHT 70,620 11,616,912 Pittsburgh, PA...Rochester, NY...Syracuse, NY...Albany, NY...Youngstown, OH... MARGINAL 179,410 59,473,898 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Virginia Beach, VA... Forecast Discussion SPC AC 310526 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...MUCH OF PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop and organize east of the lower Great Lakes into the Hudson Valley and northern Mid Atlantic region Saturday, accompanied by a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... While another significant short wave trough begins to dig within the main branch of mid-latitude westerlies, near/offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, downstream flow is forecast to become less amplified into and through a confluent regime to the east of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains during this period. To the south of a lingering vortex of Arctic origins (initially centered over southern Hudson Bay), models suggest that a vigorous short wave perturbation will dig to the southeast of James Bay and come in phase with an initially more substantive perturbation within this regime. The consolidating mid-level troughing may shift across New England into the Canadian Maritimes by 12Z Sunday. Associated forcing for ascent is forecast to support strong secondary surface cyclogenesis across the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity, while an initial occluded low over lower Michigan weakens. A conglomerating trailing cold front appears likely to advance east of the Appalachians and offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard into the Gulf coast vicinity by the end of the period. A narrowing pre-frontal plume of higher precipitable water content may advect across much of New England and Mid Atlantic coastal areas by mid afternoon, and the southern Atlantic coast later in the day. Within this regime, weak lapse rates and/or lingering convective cloud cover and precipitation may limit appreciable destabilization Saturday, particularly to the north of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Strongest mid-level cooling and height falls are forecast to overspread the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region through the northern Mid Atlantic and western New England by early Saturday evening. This may provide the focus for the primary severe weather potential for this period. ...Lower Great Lakes into Hudson Valley/northern Mid Atlantic... Lower/mid-tropospheric subsidence/warming likely will be in the process of overspreading the upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region at 12Z Saturday, before nosing east-northeastward through the day. This is expected to allow for appreciable surface heating and boundary-layer mixing to contribute to low-level destabilization prior to the arrival of the mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, which is expected to provide support for low-topped thunderstorm development. This may impact areas to the east and south of Lakes Erie and Ontario Saturday morning into midday, with convection possibly consolidating into an organizing convective system. Given the shear and the strength of the mean flow (40-50+ kt in the lowest 6 km), coupled with the steepening low-level lapse rates, activity may support severe wind gusts while spreading east-northeastward across southern New York and Pennsylvania through the afternoon, perhaps as far east as the Hudson Valley vicinity by early Saturday evening. Farther east, in areas not impacted by the cool Atlantic marine layer, a gradually waning risk for strong wind gusts may continue into the evening hours. ...South Atlantic Seaboard... Strong deep-layer mean flow and shear will be at least conditionally supportive of organized severe weather potential on Saturday, given sufficient destabilization. At least widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development still appears possible. It remains unclear whether instability and mid/upper support will become sufficient for anything more widespread, but higher severe probabilities could still become more apparent and introduced in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 03/31/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 0803Z (4:03AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 7 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said: As long as the buds are still closed there fine . They probably also spray with a anti transpirant when needed . Unlike weather I know my Ag and Aq shit pretty good, been living it all my life. K. Schlegel Fruit Farm here's no denying it, after a crisp start this morning, the sun is shining, the bees are buzzing and the buds are breaking! This beautiful weather, although it is a bit early, gets things moving. Apricots and plums are in full bloom, and peaches are right behind them. Breathtaking beauty: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 32 for the low this AM...33 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 32 for the low this AM...33 right now. 28 here, Could be an interesting Saturday coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: 28 here, Could be an interesting Saturday coming up. 3K goes from 64 degrees to 41 degrees at MDT between 6 and 7PM. The Good 'Ole 7PM low. Some 20's look very possible Sunday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Does that look like some good storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 14 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Kind of a long video...frustration is setting in even for the hardcore folks who have lived in the mountains for years - some of this guy's footage in his neighborhood is beyond surreal: This was filmed yesterday. I love following this guy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 46 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Does that look like some good storms? Verbatim a vigorous but very short-lived line of heavy rain with lightning and thunder and then very windy from about 6-8PM for the LSV. Not a lot of precip on either the Nam 3K or HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 14 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I love following this guy Who knows...maybe next year is our turn to get record breaking seasonal snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Who knows...maybe next year is our turn to get record breaking seasonal snowfall. Do you have the inside scoop on the return of Voyager? Water runs through Pillow back on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Do you have the inside scoop on the return of Voyager? Water runs through Pillow back on! I have no inside scoop...but were way overdue for a bad winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 High Wind Watch extends into far Western LSV now. AFD suggests a Wind Advisory coming for the rest of LSV later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: 28 here, Could be an interesting Saturday coming up. Interesting yes. Will the wind blow....yes. Am I worried.....no. Whats gonna happen is gonna happen. I'm no severe lover, but as a weather guy, I can understand the fascination that some have for it (and yes I love me a good Tboomer - just no damage to ANYONE please and thanks) That said, alot of what we see on SM or Youtube, and even sometimes in here... as most of us know...is just clickbait. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 hours ago, mahantango#1 said: K. Schlegel Fruit Farm here's no denying it, after a crisp start this morning, the sun is shining, the bees are buzzing and the buds are breaking! This beautiful weather, although it is a bit early, gets things moving. Apricots and plums are in full bloom, and peaches are right behind them. Breathtaking beauty: GREAT pics man. You have a good eye for the camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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