The Ides of March end of Winter 2023

[canderson]

Woke up to 7.6” fresh snow. 
 

jk but it’s already been blowing 30 overnight. Gonna be a long 36 hours. 

[Blizzard of 93]

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Chilly 25 this AM.  Looks like scattered snow throughout the state...not sure if all reaching the ground. 

I had a light partial car topper overnight in Marysville. The grill cover got a minor dusting as well.

#winning?

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z Euro & Canadian both still have a storm mid next week.

The Euro has an inland runner & the Canadian has an offshore track that misses to the south this run.

[mahantango#1]

Maybe one last chance next week.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I had a light partial car topper overnight in Marysville. The grill cover got a minor dusting as well.

#winning?

Spring cancel (March and Early April at least)?  

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z GFS gets it done for us next week & is actually the middle ground versus the Canadian & Euro at this time.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Spring cancel (March and Early April at least)?  

Hopefully Spring is canceled 6z GFS style next week with a good coastal snowstorm!

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully Spring is canceled 6z GFS style next week with a good coastal snowstorm!

Except for the cutter which RUINS our BN run of recent, the entire GFS and GEFS suite is BN high temp wise until the last day or two of March.   Almost halfway through the month and the average temp at MDT is 40.3 which is less than the 40.8 for Feb and just .6 higher than the 39.7 for Jan.  There is still a chance that March ends up colder than Jan or Feb.    I would not bet on it but with about 2 weeks to go, it is positioned to challenge if the GFS is close to right temp wise. 

[mahantango#1]

The shingle shredding, garbage can destroying winds are about to start.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, mahantango#1 said:

The shingle shredding, garbage can destroying winds are about to start.

Cumberland is a safe spot apparently. 

 

[mahantango#1]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Cumberland is a safe spot apparently. 

 

I'm glad that winds know their boundaries 

[MAG5035]

19 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Looking over the tellies, this was likely the player in our current "winter" pattern.  As you can see the notable swing thru 8 helped to get winter closer for some of us, but as you can see, its likely to head twds COD or lower amp 1/2.  With that said, moving forward, the AO/PNA remaining much like they've been all winter, tells me that the NAO looking to once again head neg into next week, says much the same for us. 

NE may still get some late winter, but down here....close the friggin curtains already.  Northern/western had a few events but bye and large, I'll be glad to put this mess behind me. 

For all that are still sniffin out the next one....enjoy the chase.  

 

Winter has been getting closer to us since the latter part of February, as pretty much every cutting event to the lakes since then was forced to secondary south of New England. Not in time for us of course, but the interior NE and New England has been catching up. Even northern PA has to some degree too. The significant Nor-easter ongoing in Upstate New York and New England came together just a bit too late for us. 

We’re definitely in a different pattern regime now. Yea the MJO lowers in amplitude as it progresses into 1 and 2 and eventually the null phase by late month, but it’s literally off the chart right now.

It has to be a record or near record amplitude. After spending the whole winter failing to get into 8-1-2 during more “favorable” periods, the rubber band definitely snapped in that regard… also signaling the true death of the Nina and likely incoming Nino. In the more nearer term, it’s indicative of predominantly below average temperatures mid-late month for this part of the country (and a large part of the CONUS as a whole) as this progresses to 1-2. Problem is, obviously, mid-late March climo is a different ballgame than Feb-early March. I posted a few weeks ago how the loop back of the MJO at the time was going to push the pattern change to colder than average back.

From 2/22

Quote

 

I’m not a fan of the MJO backtrack loop back into 7, which serves to delay what I think is has to come at some point. We are seeing the fruits of the stratwarm event propagating into the troposphere with the developing blocking that eventually retrogrades into a nice -NAO block and overall blocking over the top. PNA remains solidly negative on all guidance, even on the farther ranges of the GFS extended and Euro weeklies. We’ll have to contend with some degree of western troughing and continued relentless - temp anomalies biased toward the western half of the country. I think the real change for us comes after the EPO and WPO reverse to negative… which guidance has been showing happening during the first week of March. Extended guidance then keeps those teleconnections there. If/when that sets up, the combo of that and the blocking over the top via the -NAO should put us into a decidedly colder and more favorable regime for snow chances despite the -PNA. I felt a progressive MJO pulse that continued into 8-1-2 without looping would have driven that kind of change much sooner. But I think we’re going to contend with it sooner or later. The hope is it’s soon enough to salvage some decent snow opportunities without it being too offensive to the spring crowd. 

In the meantime, we’re going to continue to be vulnerable to cutters and in and out cold shots as there is ample cold available on our side of the hemisphere now. Big beneficiaries of the developing -NAO blocking the next 10-15 days without the implied Pac help (EPO/WPO) would appear to be upstate NY and a good portion of interior New England.   Deterministic ensemble guidance is indicating that some of those folks are going to go a long way towards recouping a lot of their big time snow deficits

Not a perfect take by any means from 3 weeks out but I feel the main points ended up coming to fruition. So onward from now this week, we moderate back to average-above average the latter half of the week as we have a brief spike positive in the EPO. The next system at the end of the week is a definite cutter but it ushers in a pretty major cold shot for the time of the year. It’s of the caliber we need at this point that can set up the next system to be cold enough for a notable snow swath with the right track. We have SW energy to come out following the cutter and models are going to do a variety of things with it at this range. There’s been some nice hits here and there in that 3/21-23 period, with the 0z Euro and current 6z GFS as the most recent examples of what could happen in our subforum. I like the potential of that period, and we had a big storm on pretty much those dates back in 2018.. which has been referenced as a comparable March to this one with teleconnections/preceding stratwarm/MJO/etc.  

Either way, these are the 5 day avg temp anomalies centered on that D5-10 period:

 

 

[pasnownut]

23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I had a light partial car topper overnight in Marysville. The grill cover got a minor dusting as well.

#winning?

I saw 15 seconds of flurries on way to work.  Looks like a skiff of snow on roofs.

#notwinningwhatsoever

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Winter has been getting closer to us since the latter part of February, as pretty much every cutting event to the lakes since then was forced to secondary south of New England. Not in time for us of course, but the interior NE and New England has been catching up. Even northern PA has to some degree too. The significant Nor-easter ongoing in Upstate New York and New England came together just a bit too late for us. 

We’re definitely in a different pattern regime now. Yea the MJO lowers in amplitude as it progresses into 1 and 2 and eventually the null phase by late month, but it’s literally off the chart right now.

It has to be a record or near record amplitude. After spending the whole winter failing to get into 8-1-2 during more “favorable” periods, the rubber band definitely snapped in that regard… also signaling the true death of the Nina and likely incoming Nino. In the more nearer term, it’s indicative of predominantly below average temperatures mid-late month for this part of the country (and a large part of the CONUS as a whole) as this progresses to 1-2. Problem is, obviously, mid-late March climo is a different ballgame than Feb-early March. I posted a few weeks ago how the loop back of the MJO at the time was going to push the pattern change to colder than average back.

From 2/22

Not a perfect take by any means from 3 weeks out but I feel the main points ended up coming to fruition. So onward from now this week, we moderate back to average-above average the latter half of the week as we have a brief spike positive in the EPO. The next system at the end of the week is a definite cutter but it ushers in a pretty major cold shot for the time of the year. It’s of the caliber we need at this point that can set up the next system to be cold enough for a notable snow swath with the right track. We have SW energy to come out following the cutter and models are going to do a variety of things with it at this range. There’s been some nice hits here and there in that 3/21-23 period, with the 0z Euro and current 6z GFS as the most recent examples of what could happen in our subforum. I like the potential of that period, and we had a big storm on pretty much those dates back in 2018.. which has been referenced as a comparable March to this one with teleconnections/preceding stratwarm/MJO/etc.  

Either way, these are the 5 day avg temp anomalies centered on that D5-10 period:

 

 

 

Yeah that off the chart 8 is impressive.  No doubt.  Just wished the Nina would've faded faster and we could have had a backend winter.  I know I put too much faith in that happening, and it sure held on longer than expected. 

Yes, northers have been eeking their way back from the ledge and have had a few snows of late.  Happy for them.  As you suggest (and has been a fear of some of us), is that now that the rubber band snapped, were going to get all of that pent up cold when its really almost over for us (climo wise).  Yes, we all know it can happen into easter, but like many others here, some of us just wanted snow in the air and otg for a while...even if only a little while. 

Not sure how many here have mentally moved on...but I know I have.  Chalkin this one up as one of the bigger skunkers that I've witness in my years.  Hoping next years Nino can work in our favor.  Plenty of time to sort that out though.    

[paweather]

Trace of snow in the mulch dang sun angle ruined my 3" 

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

Trace of snow in the mulch dang sun angle ruined my 3" 

Been up since 330 and was watching youtube vids of Mammoth CA. 

Good grief.  They wont see their mulch all year.  peeps using 2nd story access to get in houses n stuff.  Just a phenomenal stretch for them.  

[sauss06]

38 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Cumberland is a safe spot apparently. 

 

i know people. They turned the fans off for me. 

[Coop_Mason]

Muscled out 0.2” from last nights snow showers for a std 10.7”     

[Voyager]

Wife said it was snowing in Tamaqua. Sounds like a car topper at this point, though. School was on a 2 hour delay, but then closed outright. Not sure why.

[sauss06]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Been up since 330 and was watching youtube vids of Mammoth CA. 

Good grief.  They wont see their mulch all year.  peeps using 2nd story access to get in houses n stuff.  Just a phenomenal stretch for them.  

found another last night for your viewing pleasure https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6SQzSRFgWDs

[MAG5035]

1.0” was the total last night here. 25ºF and quite blustery this morning. Max gust of 44.7mph already.

Haven’t had much snow driving opportunities this winter so took the 5 mile drive up Wopsy mountain middle of last night. There was at least a 5-6” pack up there from the last few days. 

 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Wife said it was snowing in Tamaqua. Sounds like a car topper at this point, though. School was on a 2 hour delay, but then closed outright. Not sure why.

Meso's have them getting most of their additional snow this afternoon and evening.

[Greensnow]

 Be careful interpreting
graphics, etc. in areas with rapid elevation changes. For
example, Lackawanna County is being kept in the Winter Storm
Warning mainly due to the higher terrain surrounding Scranton.
Higher elevations will see 5-8 inches, while Scranton itself may
struggle to get 3-5. Similar situation for the Tri-Cities, with
the valley seeing 4-6 inches, and the hills 7-9 inches.

[pasnownut]

24 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

found another last night for your viewing pleasure https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6SQzSRFgWDs

Yeah I saw that one.  Good one to share.  Its just surreal.  

[ChescoWx]

The coastal storm is wrapping up to our northeast today and we will continue to see some snow showers pivoting through our areas from the NE to the SW. Some spots may see a very small accumulation but those rusty snow plows will yet again fail to see action in our non-winter!

Records for today. High 81 (1990) / Low 3 (1896) / Precipitation 1.51" (1940) / Snow (10.0")

 

[Bubbler86]

25 degrees with sustained around 25ish miles per hour right now.  Gusts into the 30's.  Pretty cold out.  WC of 9. 

[Itstrainingtime]

34 and very windy this morning.

 

62 days and I'll be in Mammoth Lakes, CA. Here are 2 channels that I follow: (both live in the town of Mammoth Lakes)

 

 

 

This was just uploaded this morning from yesterday:

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

34 and very windy this morning.

 

62 days and I'll be in Mammoth Lakes, CA. Here are 2 channels that I follow: (both live in the town of Mammoth Lakes)

 

 

 

This was just uploaded this morning from yesterday:

 

 

 

So, this is you in 63 days?   They were actually talking about severe thunderstorms upcoming and roof collpases!

 

 

[sauss06]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

34 and very windy this morning.

 

62 days and I'll be in Mammoth Lakes, CA. Here are 2 channels that I follow: (both live in the town of Mammoth Lakes)

 

 

 

This was just uploaded this morning from yesterday:

 

 

 

i follow him too. Insane videos

[Itstrainingtime]

19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So, this is you in 63 days?   They were actually talking about severe thunderstorms upcoming and roof collpases!

 

 

 

 

Yes sir. Not to bore you with meaningless info, but when watching these videos it's helpful to know this about the area:

 

Mammoth Mountain is 11,053' in elevation. The ski area extends from the summit down to Canyon Lodge, which sits at 8,300'. (Main Lodge is at 8,900')

 

The actual town of Mammoth Lakes sits at about 7,800'. Snow levels during the most recent storm rose to about 8,000' for a time on Friday, the town itself had a few hours of rain/snow mix. The town "only" received about 36" from the last storm, it was 5-1 ratio stuff as there was over 6.5" of liquid in that snow. That type of snow they refer to as "Sierra Cement" if you hear that in the videos you watch. 

 

There is also what is referred to as "The Village" which is a large area of rental condos and rooms that sits at 8,100' and is what you can view on mammothmountain.com cams - and that is where we'll be staying for 3 nights in May. All of those elevations are actually important as during a lot of Atmospheric River events, the snow level often rises to about 8,000'...so during a lot of storms, it's snowing like crazy on the Mountain and down to the Village while the "town" of Mammoth Lakes might be in a messy mix. 

 

Mammoth Lakes is expecting 20 -30" today and tonight. The mountain is expecting 42 - 54". On the mountain itself there will be close to 750" of snowfall for the season by tomorrow. More storms are expected next week and they are to be colder storms, with snow levels falling well below the town, so Mammoth Lakes will be getting a lot more snow in the coming weeks.

 

So far, the flooding has been below the 6500' level. Once Mammoth Lakes gets into a bona fide thaw and/or has a significant rainfall, it could get ugly in town BUT unfortunately, it will be far worse down lower as of course...all of that melting snow in Mammoth Lakes and ultimately out on the mountain itself is going to go downhill from there.