paweather Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, canderson said: I'm excited to see mood flakes tomorrow. Maybe even sticks on car rooftops that haven't been driven in a few hours. I'm honest. I haven't seen snowflakes but four or five times this year. Take the highlights. Yep I would rather see flakes coming down and melting then raindrops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 @Chris78 just drove 40 from Frederick to H-Town. The brining truck has been out and busy. 70 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 CTP keeps eeking the WWA south east throughout the afternoon lolSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: CTP keeps eeking the WWA south east throughout the afternoon lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk NWS Zone for Harrisburg says 2-4". One of the higher zone forecasts this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 58 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: It eventually does pull in the cold air and drops like 8" on much of Lancaster County, but yeah, a very bizarre depiction. A lot of changes yet with this one, me thinks. Just saw that - it will change many times but as depicted on THIS run we're on both the western and southern edge of decent snowfall. I'd love to see a thread-coverage win...at least for the entire LSV who has done nothing short of abysmal this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: NWS Zone for Harrisburg says 2-4". One of the higher zone forecasts this season. Dumb question - what is the difference between a zone forecast and point and click? I picked downtown Harrisburg and the forecast on P&C is for less than a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Dumb question - what is the difference between a zone forecast and point and click? I picked downtown Harrisburg and the forecast on P&C is for less than a half inch. I think it is the same thing, here is what I see. May not be afternoon updated. I clicked right beside Harrisburg so a bit north of town. : 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I think it is the same thing, here is what I see. May not be afternoon updated. I clicked right beside Harrisburg so a bit north of town. : Here's CTP's updated (noon today) snowfall forecast - everyone gets something except for... you guessed it! Lancaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Kinda bold...here's Elliott: Due to the milder trends with tomorrow's storm & my expectation for no snow accumulation on paved surfaces, I've deemed a snow map unnecessary for this event. Any winter-weather road concerns & meaningful snow amounts should be confined to areas along/north of I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 (1/4) For snow-lovers in south-central PA, tomorrow's storm isn't it. There are just too many things "wrong" with the setup. First, surface temps tomorrow afternoon are going to be in the mid 30s N/W of I-81 to low 40s along the MD Line.. too high for much if any snow to stick.. (2/4) Next, a rain/snow mix will overspread the Lower Susquehanna Valley from southwest-to-northeast between ~7-11 AM before changing over to rain from south-to-north after midday. Here's the problem: precip prior to midday should generally be on the light side.. (3/4) Any AM light snow will struggle to overcome the strong March sun and high ground temps, making accumulation difficult if not impossible. Finally, the upper-level low (ULL) will track just to our north, and colder air/steadier precip are found north/east of a ULL's center.. (4/4) To sum it up, roadways will just be wet tomorrow.. great news for motorists! Areas S/E of I-76/Rt 15 will struggle to receive a coating of snow on non-paved surfaces, & 1-2" amounts farther N/W should be confined to higher terrain above 750 ft. Even that isn't a guarantee.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Here's CTP's updated (noon today) snowfall forecast - everyone gets something except for... you guessed it! Lancaster! They just updated the zones for tonight and still 2-4" right beside Harrisburg. 3PM update time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Just now, Bubbler86 said: They just updated the zones for tonight and still 2-4" right beside Harrisburg. 3PM update time. CTP vs. Elliott - the showdown is hours away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: CTP vs. Elliott - the showdown is hours away! LOL, I would not be calling for 2-4" near Harrisburg so quite surprising. They even double down in their new AFD talking about 1-3 daytime tomorrow. Farther south, expecting rain to mix with snow for a few hours Friday afternoon and evening, especially along and south of the PA Turnpike. High temperatures pushing into the upper 30s to near 40 should also lead to a bit more melting at the onset and therefore slightly lower amounts - generally 1-3" with higher amounts on ridgetops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I'm hanging my snow hat on next winter. LOLBrave of you to think it'll be any different LOLSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 hour ago, canderson said: I'm excited to see mood flakes tomorrow. Maybe even sticks on car rooftops that haven't been driven in a few hours. I'm honest. I haven't seen snowflakes but four or five times this year. Take the highlights. dont look at the HH NAM. You might wanna buy a snowglobe if you wanna see flakes flyin as you are now teetering on the r/s line. Sauss n Blizz may be flaking while you are drinkin your sorrows away w/ white rain. southern tier back to Adams county is out (save a few pitty flakes early on). Mind you this is verbatim, but the north tick is not to be denied. Column is cool, but surface notsomuch. Precip rates/dews will help some overcome marginal surface, but not for all (like us southers) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I just posted before I got caught up in above. I'll take any bet for hbg in 2-4" Sauss said he'd front me $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 Ukie also has the Monday/Tuesday storm - looking at the maps for the Ukie, the first thing that comes to mind is the Boxing Day debacle about 10-12 years ago when I saw flurries, Philly received 8", and most of NJ had between 20-30". (forecast for Lanco for that storm was for 6-12" and we were under a Winter Storm Warning the morning of the storm...but I saw nothing but a few scattered flakes) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Ukie also has the Monday/Tuesday storm - looking at the maps for the Ukie, the first thing that comes to mind is the Boxing Day debacle about 10-12 years ago when I saw flurries, Philly received 8", and most of NJ had between 20-30". (forecast for Lanco for that storm was for 6-12" and we were under a Winter Storm Warning the morning of the storm...but I saw nothing but a few scattered flakes) That was a painful one. I’d prefer not to repeat it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said: That was a painful one. I’d prefer not to repeat it! Razor sharp western cutoff that was modeled to be 50-75 miles too far west. I filed that away for future reference - that was not the first time that happened in Lanco...I think it was March 2001 (?) we were forecast to receive up to 2 feet of snow...ended up with 2' of partly cloudy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 CTP has HBG for less than half an inch in my zone forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP has HBG for less than half an inch in my zone forecast. The one to two or one to three forecast beside you seem over blown as well but they are still there. Moving one pixel and clicking can change them if not using zipcodes. The map trainingtime posted was much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 I’m surprised that no one posted the 18z HRRR… Looks good for the Harrisburg area. Bullseye for @paweather 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 3k 18z NAM improved too for Harrisburg 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m surprised that no one posted the 18z HRRR… Looks good for the Harrisburg area. Bullseye for @paweather Paweather has hung his hat elsewhere. The Nam looks great for Sunday as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 DT thinks the European model is right for early next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 9, 2023 Author Share Posted March 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Paweather has hung his hat elsewhere. The Nam looks great for Sunday as well. I can always come back in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m surprised that no one posted the 18z HRRR… Looks good for the Harrisburg area. Bullseye for @paweather 22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 3k 18z NAM improved too for Harrisburg Yet another kick in the nuts for Lanco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 So im watching all the models on youtube these guys who do the weather stuff. one thing that really puzzles me they show models giving my area heavy snow for a few hours and mod snow for a few hours but we cant eek out a god darn inch? .9 for MDT? for tomorrow and this snow is said to go mostly over night tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 9, 2023 Share Posted March 9, 2023 4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: @Chris78 just drove 40 from Frederick to H-Town. The brining truck has been out and busy. 70 as well. Crazy. Shocked to see NWS calling for about 1" in Hagerstown. A bit more in the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 10, 2023 Share Posted March 10, 2023 29 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Crazy. Shocked to see NWS calling for about 1" in Hagerstown. A bit more in the higher elevations. I was stuck behind one of the machines/trucks for a mile or so...4-5 white lines on the road. Last time they did it, there was nothing though. It will have to snow hard to lay on the road with the temps tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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