The Ides of March end of Winter 2023

[Bubbler86]

Here is the GFS run in a nutshell regardless of improvements from earlier.

 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here is the GFS run in a nutshell regardless of improvements from earlier.

 

LOL. That is what I was seeing ZILCH. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

LOL. That is what I was seeing ZILCH. 

We are the donut hole of the good pattern.   Just a 12Z comment not a prediction or way to try and suggest anything.  

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

If this were 75-100 miles further south it would be very very good. Typically not a lot to ask for 100+ out but we all know the drill this year:

But even if we can get that 100 mile jog S, we'd need to hold it there till Friday as you know it ticks N inside 24. 

Furthermore the progressive flow would create a scraper to the E while us westers smoke cirrus and flip the Jersey Birds the bird.  Loop the 500's and you'll see what i'm saying.  Trough axis keeps it scootin well east for most east coasters.  

[Bubbler86]

Late nooners, very sunny 45 and breezy with 15-20MPH frequent sustained.  A bit chilly. 

[GrandmasterB]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

But even if we can get that 100 mile jog S, we'd need to hold it there till Friday as you know it ticks N inside 24. 

Furthermore the progressive flow would create a scraper to the E while us westers smoke cirrus and flip the Jersey Birds the bird.  Loop the 500's and you'll see what i'm saying.  Trough axis keeps it scootin well east for most east coasters.  

I think you have great analysis, Nut but I have to disagree on calling this one progressive.  Verbatim the GFS has the coastal low looping over and around Long Island for 18+ hours.  I wouldn’t label that track progressive, the block is slowing it down it’s just too far north.

[Bubbler86]

EC trended North with the main band of snow tonight though it was seemingly not as much about vort position as it was ground temps and precip intensity as there is mixed precip further down in the central and southern LSV even poking into MD.   Does have several LSV 1" lolipops.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

47 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I am choosing to lock in the Ukie at range.  Sue me.

 

It wasn't that many years ago that you could take the Ukie to the bank...

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

 

It wasn't that many years ago that you could take the Ukie to the bank...

That was before Brexit. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

That was before Brexit. 

Euro/Ukie tandem was unstoppable. Both have come back to the pack. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Euro/Ukie tandem was unstoppable. Both have come back to the pack. 

Honestly, having the EC side with snow right now is probably a bad sign. Especially the last 1-2 months.  Not sure why other than to say we are in a pattern that it does not excel. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Sun-splashed skies and 51. Warm in the sun sheltered from the breeze, downright cool factoring in winds and if in shade. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Honestly, having the EC side with snow right now is probably a bad sign. Especially the last 1-2 months.  Not sure why other than to say we are in a pattern that it does not excel. 

Honestly, what model can be trusted right now? Add in a changing pattern and it's March and surprises are sure to happen. 

[Blizzard of 93]

37 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

If this were 75-100 miles further south it would be very very good. Typically not a lot to ask for 100+ out but we all know the drill this year:

Now that I’ve had some lunch, The 12z GEFS has one of the looks good for this weekend.

Check out a few hours prior to what you posted. Some of the individual members get the coastal going earlier & further south.

Also, as you said later, the GEFS than stalls the low off of the NJ coast and it exits east thanks to the blocking.

Long way to go, but the GEFS took a positive step for CTP this weekend.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 12z GEFS snow map looks good for just about all of CTP for the weekend period.

The 5 inches at MDT might be the best run yet that the GEFS has shown.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Now that I’ve had some lunch, The 12z GEFS has one of the looks good for this weekend.

Check out a few hours prior to what you posted. Some of the individual members get the coastal going earlier & further south.

Also, as you said later, the GEFS than stalls the low off of the NJ coast and it exits east thanks to the blocking.

Long way to go, but the GEFS took a positive step for CTP this weekend.

 

 

 

The stalling low has been shown on and off by a lot of models over the last few days.  Talk about a possible bonanza win.    Other than joking, how often has the word tuck been said this year?   This truly is one of those situations where we are in the game. 

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z GEFS snow map looks good for just about all of CTP for the weekend period.

The 5 inches at MDT might be the best run yet that the GEFS has shown.

I'm hoping Blizz!!!! 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

It wasn't that many years ago that you could take the Ukie to the bank...

Yep, seems like a lifetime ago ha.

[Itstrainingtime]

@Mount Joy Snowman - Mammoth is under a State of Emergency - they have no where to go with the snow and perhaps the biggest storm of the winter inbound in 72 hours. Current snow depth is 224" - also, they can't get the ski lifts going as the snow depth is now over the chairs near the loading stations. Several more roof collapses reported around town this morning. And the next storm will be warmer with much wetter/heavier snowfall which will further exasperate the situation. 

 

The town is 8000' in elevation - it's not like they're not used to dealing with a lot of snow. But this is unprecedented territory. There's a sign posted coming into town "Pray For Us...We Can't Take Any More Snow".  

[paweather]

EURO looks further south

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

EURO looks further south

Definitely suggests potential for some WAA possibilities. 

[Bubbler86]

Early Saturday AM a line of WAA snow envelops the LSV on the 12Z EURO. 

[Itstrainingtime]

From what I see so far I'm liking this Euro run...

[pasnownut]

35 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I think you have great analysis, Nut but I have to disagree on calling this one progressive.  Verbatim the GFS has the coastal low looping over and around Long Island for 18+ hours.  I wouldn’t label that track progressive, the block is slowing it down it’s just too far north.

Fair point.  If I said progressive until it hits the coast, then bombs notably east and north, is that better ?  Once it left our area, I didnt really look at later panels as it doesnt help mby.

Let me restate that the trough axis is of a more progressive nature for our latitude, even though the 500 is closed off, and the storm does retrograde well ENE of us, for our hood its worth little to nothing for ALL of our group.   

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

From what I see so far I'm liking this Euro run...

500 is cut off and much farther south than 0Z.  

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

500 is cut off and much farther south than 0Z.  

 

Yep...another 50-100 miles south and watch out. There's equal reason to think it could continue south or perhaps correct north. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Yep...another 50-100 miles south and watch out. There's equal reason to think it could continue south or perhaps correct north. 

My Euro is stuck at 114 but yea the trough looks to be negative at that point albeit further north than we want like you said. 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

My Euro is stuck at 114 but yea the trough looks to be negative at that point albeit further north than we want like you said. 

me stuck at 114.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Mount Joy Snowman - Mammoth is under a State of Emergency - they have no where to go with the snow and perhaps the biggest storm of the winter inbound in 72 hours. Current snow depth is 224" - also, they can't get the ski lifts going as the snow depth is now over the chairs near the loading stations. Several more roof collapses reported around town this morning. And the next storm will be warmer with much wetter/heavier snowfall which will further exasperate the situation. 

 

The town is 8000' in elevation - it's not like they're not used to dealing with a lot of snow. But this is unprecedented territory. There's a sign posted coming into town "Pray For Us...We Can't Take Any More Snow".  

Just absolutely wild what is happening out there.  Looking through their historical records, it seems the 2010-11 season was their snowiest on record with 669".  I think they break that this year, perhaps by a wide margin.  555" and counting..... 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

me stuck at 114.

They are going into archives to pull out a map that shows good snows for our area....