Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The euro pretty much holds serve across the mid atlantic suggesting dc and baltimore get 3-6" with the potential for more to the north and east. the satellite imagery suggests to be that we won't get a nam whiff. http://www.nws.noaa....ge=wv&hours=24. Wes, would you say that for DC metro 3-6 is reasonable at this point in time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The euro pretty much holds serve across the mid atlantic suggesting dc and baltimore get 3-6" with the potential for more to the north and east. the satellite imagery suggests to be that we won't get a nam whiff. http://www.nws.noaa....ge=wv&hours=24. Hey Wes, SR's 10:1? Or perhaps could we sneak out a bit higher due to 850s near -7c? Also, if the 15z SREFs hold firm and agree with the 09z SREFs... what then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NMM and ARW are pretty much whiffs for DCA. About 0.1" by hour 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NMM and ARW are pretty much whiffs for DCA. About 0.1" by hour 39. They were last night as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I guess former HPC met and experienced guy Wes is foolish. IYO Well...yes Randy I guess so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I hope it sleets like a mofo for NNJ and NYC. I predict a 12/31/00 cutoff for MD. Bah humbug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey Wes, SR's 10:1? Or perhaps could we sneak out a bit higher due to 850s near -7c? Also, if the 15z SREFs hold firm and agree with the 09z SREFs... what then? That's why 3 to 6 is a good compromise as even if the real solution is somewhere between the euro?GFS camp and the NAM, you still could get 3" inches with .15 if the snow growth is in the right region. 3-6 is really just a wag. The best chances for heavier snow would probably be to the north and east if any nice banding were to set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That's why 3 to 6 is a good compromise as even if the real solution is somewhere between the euro?GFS camp and the NAM, you still could get 3" inches with .15 if the snow growth is in the right region. 3-6 is really just a wag. The best chances for heavier snow would probably be to the north and east if any nice banding were to set up. Sounds good Wes. Let's hope the thing bombs sooner and we jackpot, but if not, who would have though we'd even have a chance at 3-6 as of Thursday/Friday. It's a great surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The DC/BWI Philadelphia/NYC area has some of the most whiniest, greediest, half empty glass people on this board. How much snow were we supposed to get 24 hours ago? Take the GD 4 to 8 and be happy Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That's why 3 to 6 is a good compromise as even if the real solution is somewhere between the euro?GFS camp and the NAM, you still could get 3" inches with .15 if the snow growth is in the right region. 3-6 is really just a wag. The best chances for heavier snow would probably be to the north and east if any nice banding were to set up. you realize the people on this Board are NOT reasonable, don't you Wes? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Winter Storm Warning for DC/PG/Baltimore/Alexandria Advisories for Fairfax/Montgomery. You have to scroll over this to see. Must be about to be issued. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/winterstorm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 342 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-VAZ054-260445- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0010.101226T0800Z-101227T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0013.101226T1100Z-101227T1100Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS... ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH 342 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES. * TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY...THEN BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER TOWARDS MID MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SUNDAY...BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S LATE TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING... INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I would have to assume with those amounts bordering on the WWA zone they will be upgrading a portion later but who knows. Such a weird cutoff with this system. I'm nervous. Hold me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Supposed to be touching down at BWI tomorrow at 11:45 am. Thought snow was progged for midday. That is now a full six hours quicker and might mean our flight is in peril to make it in. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Still no update from AKQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT FINAL MAP: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT FINAL MAP: WOW, I think Dave is right on with that map great call Dave and good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW, I think Dave is right on with that map great call Dave and good luck! Pretty bullish for the DC area! Wish him the best of luck!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 AQK has updated. Blizzard Warnings for NYC metro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 my guess is HPC has seen the light on this and is not just blindly following the computers I think the sat pic, pressures, pressure falls, etc. are indicating a formidable storm as outlined by Dave's forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW, I think Dave is right on with that map great call Dave and good luck! Boy I hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mesoanalysis pressure map - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Mesoanalysis pressure map - Here kitty kitty..... MDStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hmm, 18z GFS lost its loving for DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 gfs is a bit ugly but the low looks to be init too weak so maybe that's the issue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Snow seems to be making it up to near Fredericksburg already and reports of moderate snow already in Southern Virginia. But i have seen no forecast indicate much of anything tonight around here, so either its northward progression is going to stop abruptly or some are going to be surprised when it moves in earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 gfs is a bit ugly but the low looks to be init too weak so maybe that's the issue.. Yeah, pressure looked off to me. Per Phin, the low takes the same track, so it's just an issue of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hmm, 18z GFS lost its loving for DCA/BWI The 12z GFS was a slap in the face. The 18z was a kick in the groin. I can only imagine what 0z will be. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 was the 18z enough to make us down to a wwa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 was the 18z enough to make us down to a wwa? No. LWX will not change anything based on the 18Z GFS, which still advertises WSW snows DC/BAL and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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