Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What would ratios be with this system? Are we talking 10:1 or are we up near 15:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Foolish to discard the NAM...BWI West should not feel too comfy yet...IMO I guess former HPC met and experienced guy Wes is foolish. IYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What would ratios be with this system? Are we talking 10:1 or are we up near 15:1? Depends where you are, but it should be a relatively dry snow for the area. We got a very light dusting here in Frederick this morning....real ambiance of Christmas out there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Has that Feb 2006 feel to it - maybe a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here's DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 As much as I want to buy in less than 24 hours out, I really can't. We'll get some snow, but I can't buy anything like what DT is selling. I just can't pull the trigger. I have no stones. Either way, I'm getting prepared to hightail it out of South Jersey back to DC by about 8am tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 just thought itd post this here, u may have already seen it.... this is the westernmost points of the heaviest snows on the RGEM into Maryland though i think its getting to be more nowcast time down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 just thought itd post this here, u may have already seen it.... this is the westernmost points of the heaviest snows on the RGEM into Maryland though i think its getting to be more nowcast time down there Ah damn, game over... especially with the GFS shift east. I knew it was too good to be true. The NAM is right. token WWA. Wise to toss the previous four GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ah damn, game over... especially with the GFS shift east. I knew it was too good to be true. The NAM is right. token WWA. Wise to toss the previous four GFS runs. DC still gets 3-6 inches on the GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DC still gets 3-6 inches on the GFS run So that means it'll be quicker to melt when the block breaks down next week. Not a bad thing in the long run, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ah damn, game over... especially with the GFS shift east. I knew it was too good to be true. The NAM is right. token WWA. Wise to toss the previous four GFS runs. well i see you are in VA here is the frame that illustrates heaviest snow in VA, keep in mind there is snow before this its just a snapshot of peak intensity snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I thought 6z might have been too good to be true. I changed my train to an early AM train from NJ to DC. I know I should be happy with 3-6" but based on 6z and overnight trends, I want to be greedy. I wouldn't mind seeing a big dry slot over NJ...can't stand the gloating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Guess I'll have to be happy with 2 to 4 here in Rockville. Gonna be real bitter if/when cities a few hundred miles north and east get buried though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Guess I'll have to be happy with 2 to 4 here in Rockville. Gonna be real bitter if/when cities a few hundred miles north and east get buried though. 3-6 seems within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I wouldn't rule out 5-10+ yet. Models have been all over the place and some have given us upwards of .5" qpf or far more. Ratios will be good at least initially... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My post was sarcastic. Hell if the Nogaps gives us snow....I think we will be fine. A key to look for is how far the overrunning gets this PM and evening.. farther N/W and the stronger the storm is going to be and thus a further west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The spread in models w/ QPF in our parts makes it kinda fun. After writing this storm completely off TWICE already, it's crazy to think that we are back in the game like this. Tomorrow will be spent watching radar and satellite loops and guessing how well we due based on nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The DC/BWI area has some of the most whiniest, greediest, half empty glass people on this board. How much snow were we supposed to get 24 hours ago? Take the GD 4 to 8 and be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The DC/BWI area has some of the most whiniest, greediest, half empty glass people on this board. Last year spoiled many people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The DC/BWI area has some of the most whiniest, greediest, half empty glass people on this board. How much snow were we supposed to get 24 hours ago? Take the GD 4 to 8 and be happy Amen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The DC/BWI area has some of the most whiniest, greediest, half empty glass people on this board. How much snow were we supposed to get 24 hours ago? Take the GD 4 to 8 and be happy +1... the greed in me doesn't mind if SNE has mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OMG, psuhoffman says the ensemble mean is slightly east of the 00Z mean. OMG!!! Panic everyone!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 OMG, psuhoffman says the ensemble mean is slightly east of the 00Z mean. OMG!!! Panic everyone!!! it reduces our precip total like by .07. disaster! They look good.. the Op is actually one of the more east ones: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/f30.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We could get more than 4-8"... 5-10" certainly isn't too unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 JMA still good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NCEP NMM and ARW hires models are running. Don't know if they'll be of any use but why not throw them into the mix as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The DC/BWI area has some of the most whiniest, greediest, half empty glass people on this board. How much snow were we supposed to get 24 hours ago? Take the GD 4 to 8 and be happy I'm happy with the flurries we had this morning. Anything else is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NCEP NMM and ARW hires models are running. Don't know if they'll be of any use but why not throw them into the mix as well. I'll go with whatever gives me the most snow and hug it closely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg81988 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 what what kind of qpf r models showing for greenville, nc? all snow or mix?? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The euro pretty much holds serve across the mid atlantic suggesting dc and baltimore get 3-6" with the potential for more to the north and east. the satellite imagery suggests to be that we won't get a nam whiff. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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