Sparky Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Did anyone from the Baltimore area see Tom Tasselmyer at 11PM? I'd like to know what he thought. It was Tony Pann. Playing conservative with 1-2 inches in Balto, up to 6 in Ocean City, and said it needed to be watched still for tracking and possible higher amounts. Meanwhile, FOX 45 was bullish with a possible 5-10 inches in Balto and more on eastern shore. It has been the most bullish station on this storm all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharford Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It was Tony Pann. He was calling for 1-2 in the baltimore area, 3-5 in OC. Did anyone from the Baltimore area see Tom Tasselmyer at 11PM? I'd like to know what he thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FWIW.. this is the 18z GFS overlay for QPF at LWX http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It was Tony Pann. Playing conservative with 1-2 inches in Balto, up to 6 in Ocean City, and said it needed to be watched still for tracking and possible higher amounts. Meanwhile, FOX 45 was bullish with a possible 5-10 inches in Balto and more on eastern shore. It has been the most bullish station on this storm all week. Fox 45 always goes high with totals like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Fox 45 always goes high with totals like that. mitchnic in the other thread said they were accuweather, but I think it is WJZ ch13 that is accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 mitchnic in the other thread said they were accuweather, but I think it is WJZ ch13 that is accuweather. They use accuweathers graphics but make own forecasts I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 mitchnic in the other thread said they were accuweather, but I think it is WJZ ch13 that is accuweather. WJZ uses Accuweather graphics. I am not sure about Fox 45, I dont watch that station that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If euro shows anything like gfs NY PHL and maybe even Md will get watches Tom morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Clown map is all win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Dear people on the forum, I know it's christmas. But the storm is back on. I'd love to celebrate with y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 THE 00Z EURO BRINGS THE STORM BACK! IT'S A CHRISTMAS MIRACLE! AMWX VIEWING PARTIES AROUND THE COUNTRY GO WILD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 And the now the Euro joins the chorus...Hallelujah, Hallelujah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 But do we get any real qpf from it? Seems more a nj ny thing, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 But do we get any real qpf from it? Seems more a nj ny thing, no? Heard it looks similar to the GFS. So yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 EURO QPF TOTALS: BOS 1.85"NYC 1.04" PHL 1.07" BWI 0.43" DC 0.33" RIC 0.70" RDU 0.61" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hard to fathom with that strength and placement only .3-.4 falls on the area, but it's better than nothing. Can't help but think that qpf will fill in more in the subsequent runs though. Time for watches to start going up in many locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 do you think the lack of qpf is because this storm will have a very sharp gradient? i'd have to believe so... maybe using I81 or Susquehanna river as the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Wow! I got up to wrap some last minute presents, and I see the models are giving gifts. When I left work on Thurs. I was telling my coworkers the threat was dead. I told them to keep an eye on the forecast just in case, but this turn of events may be too late for some to alter their plans. This has been a serious roller coaster ride; le's hope it ends in a nice sleigh ride for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Capital Weather update... 1:20 a.m. update: The bottom line: all guidance has trended toward a stronger storm, closer to the coast. This stunning shift cannot be ignored and the risk of a significant snowstorm on Sunday is real. The two operational models we trust the most - the European and GFS models - suggest the possibility of between several inches and up to a foot of snow. However, a slight shift in the track to the east could still result in little to no snow (1 in 3 chance) so this is NOT a done deal. On the other hand, any additional shifts in the track west could mean a crippling storm on a busy shopping and travel day. Considering all of this information, I think we have about a 60-65% chance of more than 1" of snow, and 35-40% chance of more than 4" of snow Sunday into Sunday night. We will have lots of coverage tomorrow, so please check back. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/12/sunday_snow_odds_continue_to_r.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For those with access to the full array of maps, when is the snow supposed to start? Still looking at 0Z to 6Z monday as the peak precip timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hard to fathom with that strength and placement only .3-.4 falls on the area, but it's better than nothing. Can't help but think that qpf will fill in more in the subsequent runs though. Time for watches to start going up in many locations. Yea, especially Baltimore seems way to low, considering how Philly is over 1'. I wouldn't worry at this stage -- a few hours ago we were all expecting party cloud with passing flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey guys and gals I have been out of the loop for the last two days and it seems the models have made an exceptional turn around. If someone doesn't mind answering this, when exactly did the models begin trending west and stronger? Also, is the NAM the only model showing no qpf for the region? I am currently in Ocean City, NJ for Xmas and planned on heading back to Silver Spring Sunday afternoon. After these latest developments I may have to leave very early Sunday. It is amazing how different a solution may play out than what I was expecting two days ago after all models took this thing too far east. Anyways, wishing you all a very Merry Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I was out a good bit of the day, but I think the first hint of this came from the 12z GFS, but that was quickly dismissed by HPC as potentially having bad data. Then I think the 18z Nam moved closer to a storm, and the 18z GFS held serve. HPC again dismsissed. This evening, the Canadian may have come on board, perhaps a few others, and then the GFS and Euro both showed big hits in the 00Z. . However, it still seems DC is on the western fringe of all the models, so still seems a ways off till we can be comfortable it will be an appreciable amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 309 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 DCZ001-MDZ006-007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-251615- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0010.101226T1100Z-101227T1100Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS- CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...MANASSAS... MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH... FREDERICKSBURG 309 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBILITY OF 5 OR MORE INCHES. * TIMING...SPREADING IN SUNDAY MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE PEAK PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * TEMPERATURES...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This should be extend west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Probably will. Still have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This should be extend west Winter storm watch stops at Reston...10 miles as the crow fly's...probably will extend west a bit at the 10am package. I'm sure the NAM not budging has them hesitant to go too far West. BWI on East appear golden at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Winter storm watch stops at Reston...10 miles as the crow fly's...probably will extend west a bit at the 10am package. I'm sure the NAM not budging has them hesitant to go too far West. BWI on East appear golden at the moment. there's already concern by people up in NY about possible changeover and dry-slotting, mets included coolwx link shows Boston and NY with 1/2 ran and 1/2 snow expect some more movement west I would guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.