Nikolai Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 First thread is over 1,000 replies, so let's move into here. What we have concluded so far: All models are on crack. After toying with our emotions for almost a week, the GFS has suddenly decided to give the DC metro a general 6-12" event. Discuss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Through 48 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I don't even know what to say at this point...other than I hope the 00z GFS holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Through 48 hours: Funny that that map was just issued, and will almost certainly be wrong along the Ohio river in Kentucky based on ground obs in western Ky and current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Did the GFS really give DC a general 6 to 12? Looked like only 2 to 4 for DC on west. Maybe 3 to 5 for Annapolis, and then like 5 to 10 on the Eastern Shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 Did the GFS really give DC a general 6 to 12? Looked like only 2 to 4 for DC on west. Maybe 3 to 5 for Annapolis, and then like 5 to 10 on the Eastern Shore Snow maps show DC proper gets roughly 10", eyeballing DC gets about .7 QPF, but ratios should be very high. I'd be happy with an inch but this trend is very encouraging, my butterflies during 0z are going to be extreme, ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 66 Forgive me being a weenie here but...does that say a FOOT for Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Map looks to show mixing issues toward the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z GFS BUFKIT: KIAD = 7.6 inches KDCA = 8.6 inches KCHO = 1.8 inches KBWI = 9.7 inches KMRB = 6.9 inches KSBY = 23.1 inches http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfsm/gfs3_ksby.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Forgive me being a weenie here but...does that say a FOOT for Baltimore? Indeed it does. At least for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z GFS BUFKIT: KIAD = 7.6 inches KDCA = 8.6 inches KCHO = 1.8 inches KBWI = 9.7 inches KMRB = 6.9 inches KSBY = 23.1 inches http://www.meteor.ia...m/gfs3_ksby.dat Richmond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 23.1 in SBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Richmond? 12.3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12.3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm watching but I refuse to be suckered on this one. Expectations were low and remain so....this is just an opportunity for more comic relief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 66 This can't be happening. 20 runs of out to sea and now this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I don't even know what to say at this point...other than I hope the 00z GFS holds. I was wondering if the Euro is as relevant as the GFS at this point...always heard the GFS is deadly within 48 hours and the Euro is better 90-120....I guess this winter all pre-conceived notions about the models are off the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm watching but I refuse to be suckered on this one. Expectations were low and remain so....this is just an opportunity for more comic relief Its Christmas Eve my friend, and you are on your computer talking in cyberspace you are sucked in, along with the rest of us Merry Christmas no matter what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Its Christmas Eve my friend, and you are on your computer talking in cyberspace you are sucked in, along with the rest of us Merry Christmas no matter what happens Merry Christmas to you as well....wrapping presents baking cookies and model watching....seems like a decent evening to me....unless the 00z craps in the cookie dough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas to you as well....wrapping presents baking cookies and model watching....seems like a decent evening to me....unless the 00z craps in the cookie dough I'm doing the same thing...it is a wonderful life you need to add some rum, that's all here, take some of mine I'm in a sharing mood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is a great storm threat for Weather53 to follow. Model confusion/mayhem. Time for satellite/radar tracking as he would say. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 When should I expect the snow to start here on mason dixon line, tad north of Baltimore? Please respond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoCoSnowBo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Should be early evening for you on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Should be early evening for you on Sunday. According to the 18z GFS, it would be around noon Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 According to the 18z GFS, it would be around noon Sunday. Or not at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ocean City will be a good bet for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ocean City will be a good bet for this storm. Nothing is a good bet with this storm. Checked out the Brownsville, TX radar.......loop it and check out the Gulf opening up a bit. http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?BRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We'll have more answers in less than an hour. With the 21Z SREFs and first 36 hours of the NAM, we'll kinda know what the scoop is going to be for the 0Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Don't know about you, but I don't know if I've ever been more nervous over some computer simulations in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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