kayman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Quote SPC AC 010829 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible on Friday across parts of the Southeast into the Ohio Valley. ...Southeast into the Ohio Valley... A negatively tilted upper-level trough and attendant cyclone are forecast to move quickly from the Ozark Plateau toward the lower Great Lakes on Friday. A cold front will move across much of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys. Very strong deep-layer flow/shear will overspread a relatively moist and at least weakly unstable environment from the Southeast into the Ohio Valley, resulting in a broad area of severe-thunderstorm potential. A strongly forced convective line is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period across central/eastern MS into western TN, with a threat of at least locally damaging wind and brief, line-embedded tornadoes. This line will progress across parts of middle/eastern TN into parts of the OH Valley, in conjunction with the strongest forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Instability will become increasingly scant with northeastward extent, but any steepening of low-level lapse rates that can occur ahead of the line will help to maintain a threat of damaging gusts and perhaps a line-embedded tornado or two, given very strong low-level flow/shear that will persist along/ahead of the surface low track. Farther south into parts of AL/GA and eventually the Carolinas, convective evolution is more uncertain. With the strongest forcing moving north of this region, some weakening of the convective line is possible, though somewhat stronger diurnal heating/destabilization (compared to areas farther north) may sustain sufficiently robust convection to maintain a threat of damaging wind and brief tornadoes through the afternoon into the evening, as convection spreads into the Carolinas. Some adjustments to the large Slight Risk will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks, depending on the timing of the ejecting shortwave trough and evolution of antecedent upstream convection during the Day 1-2 periods. ..Dean.. 03/01/2023 We ought to monitor the severe weather threat on 03/03/2023. The amount of bulk shear is there for Central Alabama (i.e., Greater Birmingham), North Georgia (i.e., Metro Atlanta). the Upstate (Greenville/Spartanburg/Anderson) and Midlands of South Carolina (Columbia), and Western North Carolina and Metro Charlotte to deal with damaging winds and a QLCS tornadic threat. I don't think this will make it to the Triangle, but the timing is key with the daytime heating. Also if there are any breaks in the cloud cover allowing more localized instability. The preliminary timing of the severe threat will be the midday and afternoon hours of Friday for said areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eolian Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Looks as if I’m going to be in the zone here in the upstate in Anderson county. just need to see if the sun can cook up the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Models are back to being more aggressive with the non-convective wind gusts across the Piedmont, with gusts possibly to 50 mph+. Starting to look like this may be the bigger story than severe weather, for NC anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 26 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Models are back to being more aggressive with the non-convective wind gusts across the Piedmont, with gusts possibly to 50 mph+. Starting to look like this may be the bigger story than severe weather, for NC anyway. Might not even get rain with the main line in most of NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Models are back to being more aggressive with the non-convective wind gusts across the Piedmont, with gusts possibly to 50 mph+. Starting to look like this may be the bigger story than severe weather, for NC anyway.WRAL just showed wind forecast and the highest it got was around 20s tomorrow night. Didn’t act like it was a big deal here. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: WRAL just showed wind forecast and the highest it got was around 20s tomorrow night. Didn’t act like it was a big deal here. . I usually cut modeled wind forecasts in half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: WRAL just showed wind forecast and the highest it got was around 20s tomorrow night. Didn’t act like it was a big deal here. . GFS tops out at about 27 knots for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 North Georgia is now under the gun for quick QLCS spin ups within the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Tornado Warning GAC015-057-085-123-129-227-032045- /O.NEW.KFFC.TO.W.0018.230303T2014Z-230303T2045Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 314 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Cherokee County in north central Georgia... Southern Gilmer County in north central Georgia... Northwestern Dawson County in north central Georgia... Southeastern Gordon County in northwestern Georgia... Pickens County in north central Georgia... Northeastern Bartow County in northwestern Georgia... * Until 345 PM EST. * At 313 PM EST, severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage were located near Ranger, or 10 miles east of Calhoun. Another area of rotation was located 4 miles northwest of Pine Log. Both areas were moving northeast at 60 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Jasper, Ellijay, Nelson, East Ellijay, Talking Rock, Fairmount, Ranger, Sequoyah Lake, Talona, Marblehill, Fausett Lake, Cartecay, Salacoa Valley, Pisgah, Blaine, Lake Tamarack, Talmadge, Oakman, Tate and Funkhouser. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 3470 8426 3438 8426 3434 8481 3449 8483 3459 8468 3458 8468 3458 8465 3460 8465 3477 8440 TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 243DEG 52KT 3449 8476 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 Damage is being reported with the areas under the aforementioned tornado warning per WSB-TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eolian Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Squall line passing me now. wasn’t enough sun to juice it up here. next… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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