JTA66 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Perhaps the most underwhelming car topper of the season (that's saying something) but some slush on the windshields nonetheless. 34F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: La Nina is not dead yet. Excerpt from the last update - The Great Lakes never froze over let alone have much frozen on them at all. As of last month, there was only about 7% ice coverage on them (which did make them open for business for the huge lake effect events that we saw whenever a PV dropped down) - https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2941/Low-ice-on-the-Great-Lakes-this-winter What HAS changed is the MJO, which is favorable to get more cold air down into the CONUS. But the equinox is in a couple weeks. Nina is dying a quick death. We are neutral attm and they say could be weak Nino shortly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Not much. A little slush/snow slid down to the wiper blades. Really pathetic. Winds going to crank somewhat as the days rolls along... 33F/Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Nina is dying a quick death. We are neutral attm and they say could be weak Nino shortly: But by then we will be well into spring and moving to summer. Meanwhile, the NAO is heading for neutral to positive in that storm's time frame. I know the NAO is less an indicator out of met winter, but this past year, no matter how negative it has been, it has been unable to overcome other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Not much. A little slush/snow slid down to the wiper blades. Really pathetic. Winds going to crank somewhat as the days rolls along... 33F/Cloudy I had nothing but "liquid" here and not enough to even register on the weather station. My low so far has been 34 and am currently overcast, misty and 35 with dp 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 13 hours ago, The Iceman said: Hopefully I can get another .25 to get to an inch on the year. Not expecting much else. You really weren't asking for much but I assume this wasn't achieved? This winter has been brutal snow wise.... 33F/Cloudy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 17 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: But by then we will be well into spring and moving to summer. Meanwhile, the NAO is heading for neutral to positive in that storm's time frame. I know the NAO is less an indicator out of met winter, but this past year, no matter how negative it has been, it has been unable to overcome other factors. Oh I wasn't saying the enso state was going to have any impacts this month per se. I do think the cooler ssts have helped us get the mjo progression into a more favorable phase at least. Hopefully we don't enter some 97-98 super Nino in fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Official measurement 2 tenths of an inch of snow last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 With the 6th snow event of the season, we have finally cracked and inch an a half total snow on the winter. SIX events for 1.6".....pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Oh I wasn't saying the enso state was going to have any impacts this month per se. I do think the cooler ssts have helped us get the mjo progression into a more favorable phase at least. Hopefully we don't enter some 97-98 super Nino in fall This has a great discussion of the aftermath of the recent SSWE and pattern change - https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/strong-blocking-system-polar-vortex-collapse-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ The thing is, at least here in SE PA, there is that borderline temp thing and getting the phasing in the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 I would kill to cash in on just 1 6in+ storm. Give me 1 winter storm warning on the year. I’ll go away content, 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 The Euro has a bias of digging the northern stream too much, and as a result, it likes to show east coast bombs when other models have fish storms. Remember Juno? Probably the best example. Euro stubbornly showed 1-2 feet for the Philly area and held onto that solution till the bitter end. Actual amounts weren’t even close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 It would be pretty hilarious though if the Euro storm did happen verbatim and we ended up above average on snowfall for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, LVblizzard said: The Euro has a bias of digging the northern stream too much, and as a result, it likes to show east coast bombs when other models have fish storms. Remember Juno? Probably the best example. Euro stubbornly showed 1-2 feet for the Philly area and held onto that solution till the bitter end. Actual amounts weren’t even close to that. They addressed that with the upgrade last year thus the bump in the Euros verification scores. Doesn't make this run right. I don't think it is. But the pattern has potential for a decent late season storm between the 10th and 20th still. Doubt it plays out like the Euro verbatim and I wouldn't put all my chips on a major event either.....but this time of year it usually ends up as all or nothing. We'll see how this 10 day period plays out. Right now many are overlooking that we are backing into some snow this weekend. Blocking does funny things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Newman said: It would be pretty hilarious though if the Euro storm did happen verbatim and we ended up above average on snowfall for the season Verbatim, some places would double seasonal averages and even end up in top 10 winters territory. Agreed, that would be rather hysterical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 40 minutes ago, Duca892 said: I would kill to cash in on just 1 6in+ storm. Give me 1 winter storm warning on the year. I’ll go away content, I'm struggling to recall the last time I was under a winter storm warning and received 6"+. I'm pretty sure I was under a warning in Jan '21, but the IP held on longer than expected, so I didn't hit the 6" mark. I think South Jersey and the Leigh Valley areas have cashed in recently, but do we SE PA folks need to go all the way back to Jan '16??? I'll have to check Ray's archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Craziest model variation ever. CMC likes this weekends storm, euro wants to glacier the Ides of March, GFS has white St. Patrick's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Craziest model variation ever. CMC likes this weekends storm, euro wants to glacier the Ides of March, GFS has white St. Patricks. At least we end this miserable winter having multiple chances. But I am not getting excited until one makes it under 5 days out on multiple models. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Crazy uncle Ukmet so far is late for the party nobody knows if it will show up, no show for wave 1&2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 So the weekends storm....on the GFs remember when the primary went into S C Canada a couple days back? Now it is in Pitt. Has been coming S every run. Couple more ticks and the thing slides under and we get a legit system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 The ECM still hasn't held a great run 12hrs later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Euro is now in the this weekend camp with 3" of potatoes au gratin SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 and 1/2 models agree on white this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: From a guy who touts himself as having been in this hobby for 65 years (even as a brief career iirc?) this surprises me coming from you. I get it....it's March and winter has been blah. But the Nina is dead and even Hellen Keller could probably see the potential in the pattern. You get modest snow this coming Saturday btw. Truth hurts sometimes. After last nights snowfall bust IMHO, I hold out no hope that 10 day models will ever be accurate, no matter how many times they are calibrated. It's like wishing the wheels on you car to be perfectly aligned all the time but at the same time going over potholes, especially for PA. Every single 10-15 day model demonstrates the inability to project accurate snowfall totals. They are only good for sniffing out potential overall pattern change. While I agree the La Nina pattern is on its deathbed after three miserable years, I would expect nothing less than abrupt weather pattern change while its on last breath in March or April to signify its passing. Typically but not always a deep LP forming off the east coast is the precursor of this pattern change. I have seen this situation unfold nearly a dozen times. I expect nothing less. Actually a moderate to heavy snow event in the next week or so is really needed for our soils (since we have been robbed of snow all winter) for a beautiful spring flowering season and before the buds are formed on all of the trees. I would agree a moderate snow event is most likley in the cards as we have nothing to lose and even Stevie Wonder can sing along with that tune. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 hours ago, mattinpa said: At least we end this miserable winter having multiple chances. But I am not getting excited until one makes it under 5 days out on multiple models. this is the most accurate post of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 6 hours ago, Birds~69 said: You really weren't asking for much but I assume this wasn't achieved? This winter has been brutal snow wise.... 33F/Cloudy Correct, it may have snowed last night but there was nothing on the ground when I woke up at 6 am. Maybe I can get .25 this weekend. Not expecting more than that the rest of the way, but those expectations may be too high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 EPS mean has 9" snow here. It's time to start paying attention. Oh....and buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: EPS mean has 9" snow here. It's time to start paying attention. Oh....and buckle up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 48 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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