RedSky Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Locally ECM deals me 6" total over the next week from 3 rounds starting tonight which equals meteorological winter total 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Right. Nothing epic on the Euro, but some chances at frozen. This late in the season, can't expect much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 18z NAM back to reality. I figured the 12z was a hiccup. 2-4” LV, spots of 6-7” in heart of poconos . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Locally ECM deals me 6" total over the next week from 3 rounds starting tonight which equals meteorological winter total Here's to double or nothing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 6, 2023 Author Share Posted March 6, 2023 Both 3k & 12k 18z NAMs. Also as an obs given today was a rare sunny day (although it did start clouding up on and off), I bottomed out at 36 this morning and am currently at my high of 52 with dp 29. (edit to add in the 18z GFS that I meant to post earlier) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Hopefully I can get another .25 to get to an inch on the year. Not expecting much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 15 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Hopefully I can get another .25 to get to an inch on the year. Not expecting much else. If you're currently in Levittown, I doubt it or question it. 46F here, don't think I get squat. Went out to get mail w/only a T-shirt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Coming in further north than expected it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 57 minutes ago, RedSky said: Coming in further north than expected it appears Looking like a southern Poconos special…I could see 3-6” there. Radar still looks pretty good out west for an inch or two in the Lehigh Valley later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Think we’re boned for storm #1 in the city, NW may be able to cash in but city seems to have BL temp issues since we can’t get the ULL to tilt negatively in time to really get into the ccb precip. Storm 2 highly favors NE & NNE in fact I’m in love with this potential right now for them. Down here the pac speed just doesn’t give it time to dig far enough S in time. What happens after that is anyones guess but we’re losing climo. Can’t feel great about much of anything tonight. Hoping for a big event in NE to chase. Think the GFS solution for storm 1 up in NE is bogus, it’s clearly trending S with vort like rest of guidances. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 If correct, snow line way N at 1:20am, good old Jim Thorpe. 38F/light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 If correct, snow line way N at 1:20am, good old Jim Thorpe. 38F/light rain Snow in Bethlehem, but again a shit Job by models. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Light to moderate snow falling here. A solid coating on the colder surfaces. Temp 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 0.6” and that’s probably it for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Heisy said: Think we’re boned for storm #1 in the city, NW may be able to cash in but city seems to have BL temp issues since we can’t get the ULL to tilt negatively in time to really get into the ccb precip. Storm 2 highly favors NE & NNE in fact I’m in love with this potential right now for them. Down here the pac speed just doesn’t give it time to dig far enough S in time. What happens after that is anyones guess but we’re losing climo. Can’t feel great about much of anything tonight. Hoping for a big event in NE to chase. Think the GFS solution for storm 1 up in NE is bogus, it’s clearly trending S with vort like rest of guidances . So we are just going to ignore the blizzard here on the Euro about a week from now? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So we are just going to ignore the blizzard here on the Euro a week from now? 0z Euro MECS, 0z GFS slider! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1.0 units of virga here. Ground is dry. No drips, no flakes when the heavier greens moved through around 2 - 2:30. Currently 37°F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So we are just going to ignore the blizzard here on the Euro about a week from now? I’ve actually locked this in for everyone. Enjoy next week y’all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 at this point winter is DEAD. A car topper this morning . Put a fork in it please Euro is on drugs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 .7" snow total. Wouldn't be surprised if it's more snow then what falls on the euro fantasy blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So we are just going to ignore the blizzard here on the Euro about a week from now? 6z GFS total snow depth change through day 10 is <1" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 47 minutes ago, Duca892 said: I’ve actually locked this in for everyone. Enjoy next week y’all. Well it's my Ides of March storm I've been barking about since late Feb, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: 0z Euro MECS, 0z GFS slider! Surface maps aren't indicative of the potential. GFS is a 6 hr difference in timing from a triple phased bomb: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 GFS, CMC, and Euro all snow here on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Got 1" here. Everything is white except paved surfaces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 Following the Euro's BECS on 3/15, the GFS has 2 followup snowstorms, the latter being a HECS. I would not sleep on mid March yet....this pattern is loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 6z GFS has the St Patty's shamrock greens for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: at this point winter is DEAD. A car topper this morning . Put a fork in it please Euro is on drugs. From a guy who touts himself as having been in this hobby for 65 years (even as a brief career iirc?) this surprises me coming from you. I get it....it's March and winter has been blah. But the Nina is dead and even Hellen Keller could probably see the potential in the pattern. You get modest snow this coming Saturday btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Surface maps aren't indicative of the potential. GFS is a 6 hr difference in timing from a triple phased bomb: The issue had been lack of cold air and a warm ocean. The models have been unable to deal with a three-peat La Nina pattern as we have seen since November chasing "10-day storms". The surface maps tell us we are going to get "something" but what the p-type is will continually be up in the air. ETA - the below has been the case all winter - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But the Nina is dead and even Hellen Keller could probably see the potential in the pattern. You get modest snow this coming Saturday btw. La Nina is not dead yet. Excerpt from the last update - Quote EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS 9 February 2023 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to begin within the next couple of months, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere spring and early summer. Although a weak La Niña was still apparent during January, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued to weaken further across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño index values were mostly near -0.5°C, with the exception of Niño-1+2 which was +0.1°C [Fig. 2]. Like the surface, negative subsurface temperature anomalies continued to weaken [Fig. 3], with above-average subsurface temperatures expanding eastward at depth and near the surface of the eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level easterly wind anomalies continued, but were confined to the western and central Pacific Ocean. Upper-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over the east-central Pacific. Suppressed convection persisted over the western and central tropical Pacific, while enhanced convection was observed over western Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña. /.../ The Great Lakes never froze over let alone have much frozen on them at all. As of last month, there was only about 7% ice coverage on them (which did make them open for business for the huge lake effect events that we saw whenever a PV dropped down) - https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2941/Low-ice-on-the-Great-Lakes-this-winter What HAS changed is the MJO, which is favorable to get more cold air down into the CONUS. But the equinox is in a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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