zenmsav6810 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 On 4/12/2023 at 12:05 PM, Mikeymac5306 said: I would bet the house on this. I am heading to Dover for race weekend and we are camping so I expect it to be cold and miserable as it was last year. every force has an equal an opposite reaction... am I right! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted April 14, 2023 Author Share Posted April 14, 2023 2 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: There's actually an entire field dedicated to modeling this kind of stuff using differential equations-- I did a bit of it in engineering school but never became a true expert. Its very important for game mangement and issueing the proper numbers of hunting permits and fishing limits. Accorns in particular are an important nutrition source for deer and wild turkey (accorns also can be turned into flour for human cooking). I also noticed a bumber crop of pine cones at my house. It should be interesting to see how the beech nut and walnut crop does. When one of my sisters moved into her house back in the summer of 2003, her neighbor's oak tree was literally raining down a billion acorns that fall. You could barely sit out on her deck without getting the equivalent of weeks of hail (but not with ice) raining down until frost. LOL As we know, that year before, the area was in a major drought that had started the winter of 2001 and peaked by August 2002 - It finally broke that September with what eventually was downgraded to TS Isidore (one of the retired "I" storms) that wet the ground and was the beginning of the end of that unusual dry period. Fast forward 20 years and over that time, there have been years of some acorn drop, perhaps light to normal, but nothing like 2003 - at least until last year, when the acorns rained down again. That was the year after the remnants of Hurricane Ida flooded the area and spawned multiple tornadoes. From my weather station, August 2021 had almost 11" of rain, and on Sept. 1, 2021 when that Ida precip. blew through, I had an almost 5 1/2" single day rainfall. As a quick obs, I am already at 84 with dp 54 and a lot of cirrus above! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 Called it. We broke 90 around 12:30, but now the cloud cover is creeping in and we're back down to 89: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 Current temp is 90 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 90.6F for the high today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 88.3F high. We were due for some July in April weather. Where did that cold go the GFS was showing two weeks ago, the long duration cutoff low lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted April 14, 2023 Author Share Posted April 14, 2023 Made it up to 86 for a high today in the "cooler" parts of the CWA based on the position of the high. Just came in after firing up the grill and getting some stuff cooked up for next week, and the temps today were fantastic. Not blazing hot nor humid. I know the rain is incoming this weekend so wanted to get the grill-on now. Currently all clouded up, 80, and am seeing stuff lifting up from the south. But have a dp that is a pleasant 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 I noticed that our local channel 6 weather team over in Philadelphia has been posting how since 1970 springs are getting warmer....as is always the case they only seem to look at since 1970. Why is that a problem? A quick look (see below) at the 3 major NWS COOP sites here in Chester County PA show that by starting the analysis in 1970 the data is clearly skewed because overall the 1960's was the decade with the coolest readings. The warmest springs here in Chester County averaged over the 3 long term sites actually occurred back in the 1940's. Only focusing on 50 years does not prove a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 2 hours ago, ChescoWx said: I noticed that our local channel 6 weather team over in Philadelphia has been posting how since 1970 springs are getting warmer....as is always the case they only seem to look at since 1970. Why is that a problem? A quick look (see below) at the 3 major NWS COOP sites here in Chester County PA show that by starting the analysis in 1970 the data is clearly skewed because overall the 1960's was the decade with the coolest readings. The warmest springs here in Chester County averaged over the 3 long term sites actually occurred back in the 1940's. Only focusing on 50 years does not prove a trend. Well they're not exactly wrong, are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 I postponed an overnight brisket smoke due to last night's forecast, but so far it hasn't rained a drop. The forecast has held steady for t-storms beginning at noon, so we'll see if that pans out. This is all virga at the moment: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 13 hours ago, CoolHandMike said: Well they're not exactly wrong, are they? No...because the current phase has warmed...but the lack of any longer term data that might support a more cyclical natural climate change is for sure telling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 Assuming we don't fall below 61.7 by midnight we recorded another record daily high min temp this AM. Old record was 59 from 2002. A tough forecast for today regarding the chances for some much needed rain. Some spots could see over an inch of rain while others get less than 0.10". Hoping your backyard sees some rain! Looks to continue mild before a cool down early this week then a warming trend mid-week before we start a stretch of predominantly below normal temperatures to close out the month of April. Records for today: High 86 (1967) / Low 24 (1981) / Rain 1.71" (1925) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 1 hour ago, CoolHandMike said: I postponed an overnight brisket smoke due to last night's forecast, but so far it hasn't rained a drop. The forecast has held steady for t-storms beginning at noon, so we'll see if that pans out. This is all virga at the moment: Damn, that sounds good. 69F/Cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 Topped out at 88F yesterday. Currently 72F with an unacceptable DP of 65F for April. Hoping for maybe a passing shower today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: Topped out at 88F yesterday. Currently 72F with an unacceptable DP of 65F for April. Hoping for maybe a passing shower today. Sprinkles currently....pretty pumped! 72F/DP 63F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Sprinkles currently....pretty pumped! 72F/DP 63F Atmospheric river! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Atmospheric river! Yeah. Actually works for me messing w/the car outside...a little mist here and there. 73F/DP 64F *Update: Full sun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 Got hail 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 Thundershower with some humongous raindrops spaced far apart off and on that looked like snow, few pea sized hailstones. Not much H2O however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: Thundershower with some humongous raindrops spaced far apart off and on that looked like snow, few pea sized hailstones. Not much H2O however. Stuff going on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 Sweet pinwheel of storms center state could be fun. More giant raindrops popped overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 Cows flying to the N....sun just broke out here. 75F/DP 64F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted April 15, 2023 Author Share Posted April 15, 2023 I "heard" the notifications beeping for here, checked my radar, and sure enough saw something had spontaneously appeared up north. Am wondering if our buddy in Macungie is outside dancing naked in any rain (or hail). 4 hours ago, CoolHandMike said: I postponed an overnight brisket smoke due to last night's forecast, but so far it hasn't rained a drop. The forecast has held steady for t-storms beginning at noon, so we'll see if that pans out. This is all virga at the moment: I ended up bbing yesterday afternoon figuring it would have been raining here today (at least some spotty showers were forecast beginning overnight and into the morning, and on/off all day. Haven't had any of that yet but at least yesterday was pleasant. It has been mostly overcast here with some occasional self-destruct sun. Am currently at 77, which is my high so far for the day (nowhere near the highs the past couple days), after a low of 62, and with a more juicy dp of 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 This would be fun....thundergraupel! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This would be fun....thundergraupel! Backloaded spring! 76F/DP 65F with darkening skies to my south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This would be fun....thundergraupel! Clown map drops me 3" giddyup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 If only it was a month earlier- somebody had to say it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 Regular rumbles as storms have continuosly popped a few miles to my north for two hours but little rain a real carrot on a stick routine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 15, 2023 Share Posted April 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: If only it was a month earlier- somebody had to say it Eff it, I'm tracking! This is the one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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