E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread

[RedSky]

71F after a low of 36F

[Albedoman]

PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-121015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FW.A.0001.230412T1500Z-230413T0000Z/
Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
346 PM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Fire
Weather Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is
in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening.

* AFFECTED AREA...Carbon, Monroe, Berks, Lehigh, Northampton,
  Delaware, Philadelphia, Western Chester, Eastern Chester,
  Western Montgomery, Eastern Montgomery, Upper Bucks and Lower
  Bucks.

* TIMING...Wednesday.

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 30 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...In the lower 80s.

* IMPACTS...Critical fire weather conditions are expected. There
  will be increased risk for rapid wildfire growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur due to a combination of strong winds, low
relative humidities, and dry fuels. Listen for later forecasts and
possible Red Flag Warnings.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Temp soared to 74 today with an active breeze after a low of 43 and it will only get warmer each day for the remainder of the work week.  It did briefly cloudy up during the mid-afternoon but that cleared out for a mostly sunny finish through to sunset.  Am currently at 65 with dp 38.

[CoolHandMike]

I'm not the biggest fan of sunny weather, but even I have to admit that today was just gorgeous and comfortable outside. It even clouded over just a bit towards the evening, which is more to my liking, lightening my mood even more. I worked from home today, and after my last Teams meeting ended at 4, I smoked a bunch of chicken over applewood, finishing it off on the grill alongside some zucchini and mushrooms. A simply superb early April evening.

Looks like we hit just over 76°F here, after a low of 35 this morning. Good sleeping weather tonight; dry and in the low 60's/high 50's. Currently 64F/31DP a just a touch of breeze.

[ChescoWx]

We had a record high minimum temperature this AM of just 58.8 degrees breaking the old record of 58.7 set back in 2017. We should approach 80 degrees especially in the lower spots of Chester County today. This will still be well below the record for today but almost 20 degrees above normal for the date. Dry and warm weather through Friday with showers this weekend followed by a return to near normal April temperatures next week and for an extended stretch of days.

Records for today: High 87 (1990) / Low 20 (1975) / Rain 1.95" (1933) / Snow 1" (1894)

[ChescoWx]

Well it is likely we are finished with any snow this season here in Chester County PA. This season ended up being our 3rd least snowy winter since records began back in 1888. Below are the top 20 least and most snowy winters. Note that 6 of our snowiest seasons have occurred since 2000 - while only 4 of our least snowy seasons have taken place since 2000.

[ChescoWx]

Maybe some below normal spring days in our future if GFS is to be believed

[JTA66]

I've lived here for 20 years and have never had as many fallen pinecones in the yard as I do this spring. It's not just one tree, they're all over the front and back yards. I want to say it's due to the mild winter, but we've had plenty of mild winter in the last 20 years. Probably nothing more than the natural life cycles of the conifers themselves? But if anyone is an amateur arborist, I'd be interested in any theories.

65F

[Albedoman]

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
924 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-130000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FW.A.0001.230412T1500Z-230413T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.FW.W.0002.230412T1500Z-230413T0000Z/
Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
924 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect until 8 PM EDT this evening. The Fire Weather Watch is no
longer in effect.

* AFFECTED AREA...Carbon, Monroe, Berks, Lehigh, Northampton,
  Delaware, Philadelphia, Western Chester, Eastern Chester,
  Western Montgomery, Eastern Montgomery, Upper Bucks and Lower
  Bucks.

* TIMING...Wednesday.

* WINDS...West 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 25 percent.

* TEMPERATURES...Afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s to
  low 80s.

* IMPACTS...Critical fire weather conditions are expected. There
  will be increased risk for rapid wildfire growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly due to a combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and dry fuels. Any fires that
develop may quickly get out of control and become difficult to
contain.

[Albedoman]

22 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I've lived here for 20 years and have never had as many fallen pinecones in the yard as I do this spring. It's not just one tree, they're all over the front and back yards. I want to say it's due to the mild winter, but we've had plenty of mild winter in the last 20 years. Probably nothing more than the natural life cycles of the conifers themselves? But if anyone is an amateur arborist, I'd be interested in any theories.

65F

One of the most prevalent varieties of pine trees in PA is “Pinus strobus,” commonly known as the Eastern White Pine. This pine tree is tall – growing quickly to a height of up to 100’ – with a full crown of dark needles and pinecones that drop every year. If you haven’t noticed the pinecones on the tree, you’ve certainly noticed them on the ground! Especially this year. Have you ever wondered “why are there so many pinecones this year?”

It boils down to survival. Trees have different reactions based on the climate and weather around them. In years with a healthy amount of rain, the tree will focus more on growth and less on seed production. However, in years where there just isn’t enough rain (like this past winter/spring) the tree will compensate by producing an abnormal number of seeds (to encourage propagation). On a pine tree, these seeds are found in pinecones that will eventually drop to the ground.

[Birds~69]

43 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I've lived here for 20 years and have never had as many fallen pinecones in the yard as I do this spring. It's not just one tree, they're all over the front and back yards. I want to say it's due to the mild winter, but we've had plenty of mild winter in the last 20 years. Probably nothing more than the natural life cycles of the conifers themselves? But if anyone is an amateur arborist, I'd be interested in any theories.

65F

Probably a precursor to a historic upcoming winter. (weenie thinking)

Speaking of a weenie, you can elope in front of the weeniemobile this weekend...

https://thetakeout.com/wienermobile-wedding-chapel-vegas-rent-at-private-event-1850323589   

74F

[Albedoman]

https://www.lehighvalleynews.com/environment-science/lehigh-valley-under-red-flag-warning-as-massive-fire-burns-in-new-jersey

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

I've lived here for 20 years and have never had as many fallen pinecones in the yard as I do this spring. It's not just one tree, they're all over the front and back yards. I want to say it's due to the mild winter, but we've had plenty of mild winter in the last 20 years. Probably nothing more than the natural life cycles of the conifers themselves? But if anyone is an amateur arborist, I'd be interested in any theories.

65F

Like the acorns on oak trees, it is usually a result of the previous year's weather and the tree's response to it.  The baby pine cones form now and eventually mature in the fall and will fall off during late fall through winter.

5 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

https://www.lehighvalleynews.com/environment-science/lehigh-valley-under-red-flag-warning-as-massive-fire-burns-in-new-jersey

It is like this every year around this time.  It's the brief "dry warmth" before the slop bin humidity hits.  I always chuckle about the period from now until maybe mid-May being the perfect time for roofers to do their work without excessive rains and heat.  After that...

As an obs, I have already surpassed my yesterday's  high and am currently mostly sunny and 76 with dp 48.

[Mikeymac5306]

3 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Maybe some below normal spring days in our future if GFS is to be believed

I would bet the house on this. 

 

I am heading to Dover for race weekend and we are camping so I expect it to be cold and miserable as it was last year. 

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 84 here..Beautiful

[Albedoman]

Brush fire in eastern Berks County threatens homes

Crews responded to a 3- to 4-acre brush fire in the area of Huffs Church Road and Cherry Drive in District Township

•  
•  

 

Brush fire in eastern Berks County threatens homes

By KEITH DMOCHOWSKI | [email protected] | Reading Eagle

PUBLISHED: April 12, 2023 at 3:21 p.m. | UPDATED: April 12, 2023 at 4:44 p.m.

 

Fire crews responded Wednesday afternoon to a two-alarm brush fire in the area of Cherry Drive and Huffs Church Road in District Township.

Calls around 2:10 p.m. reported a 3- to 4-acre fire moving toward properties on Cherry Drive. Crews from multiple fire companies responded shortly after, and a second alarm was struck.

 

 

An air drop was requested about 2:50 p.m. and numerous spot fires were reportedly breaking out. Firefighters were battling the flames with several hose lines as well as leaf blowers, and water was drawn from a large pond on Cherry Lane, according to emergency reports.

Additional assistance was requested from Montgomery and Lehigh County fire departments.

The flames were stopped by a creek on one side, and crews were containing the blaze and awaiting an imminent air drop at 3:40 p.m. The airdrops largely extinguished the active fire, and crews were moving back in for cleanup at 4:15 p.m.

More information will be provided as it becomes available.

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

Looks like I maxed out at 82 today, with blue skies and an active breeze.

It's currently 80 and sunny with dp 49.

[Birds~69]

76F/DP47F/Nice breeze

Birds chirping their asses off...

[Birds~69]

66F/Sunny/Breezy...feels like a summer morning.

*Free coffee Wawa day 

[ChescoWx]

We set another record low maximum this morning with a low of only 61.2 - breaking the old record of 59.4 set in 2019. Today will be the warmest day of the week as temps could approach near record levels this PM. A little cooler but still over 80 degrees tomorrow before we start a cool down over the weekend along with the chance of some much needed showers.

Records for today: High 86 (1977) / Low 21 (1975) / Rain 2.40"

[RedSky]

Today reminds of the immortal words of Cheryl Lemke on The Weather Channel "Your just gonna bake"

 

 

[Birds~69]

85F/DP 49F/Super sunny and breezy

[Hurricane Agnes]

Bottomed out at 61 this morning and have just hit 87 with full sun and relatively "low" dp of 53.

[The Iceman]

High of 89 here. Impressive warmth this early. Probably going to pay for this nice week with 3 straight weeks of temps in the 50s though 

[Birds~69]

25 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

High of 89 here. Impressive warmth this early. Probably going to pay for this nice week with 3 straight weeks of temps in the 50s though 

Count me in, I'm with this. 

Actually these past 2 days and tomorrow won't/haven't been bad because of low DPs/Hum/and a damn nice breeze w/good sleeping weather. (Windows open)

 

[RedSky]

86.3F high

 

 

 

[CoolHandMike]

Made it up to 89.7°F. Though I've only been recording temps IMBY for three years now, last year's highest in April was 82.7 and in 2021 it was 80.0. I think we might make it to 90 tomorrow, which could start the "above nineties" count for the year a full month earlier than last year.

I think we all saw this coming after our dismal winter, but I was hoping we'd stay cooler a little longer. At least it has been bearable with low humidity. So begins the long slog through the summer months. Starting in April. Not a fan.

Side note: I read somewhere that large tropical volcanic eruptions have been correlated with warm winter months immediately proceeding in the northern hemisphere, following a cold crash the following winter. Here's hoping Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai might have such an effect? I watched this vid recently (he begins to make his point about 3 minutes in if you don't want to watch the whole thing, though I highly recommend you do, it's very good): 

And the paper cited within:

https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/19930016055/downloads/19930016055.pdf

[ChescoWx]

Yesterday was our warmest day since the 84.3 degree reading back on September 4th. We should be a couple degrees cooler today with clouds increasing later. Some showers toward morning tomorrow ending by late Saturday night. Some spots could see 0.25" to 0.50" of much needed rain for the county farmers and green thumbs!

Records for today: High 88 (1941) / Low 22 (1940) / Rain 2.28" (1970) / Snow 2.5" (1923)

[Hurricane Agnes]

Actually bottomed out at 57, which was a bit cooler this morning than yesterday and I'm off to the races and currently 70,  partly sunny with lots of cumulus, and with a dp of 53.

El Nino Watch is on after the La Nina 3-peat!

 

[zenmsav6810]

On 4/12/2023 at 11:16 AM, Hurricane Agnes said:

Like the acorns on oak trees, it is usually a result of the previous year's weather and the tree's response to it.  The baby pine cones form now and eventually mature in the fall and will fall off during late fall through winter.

It is like this every year around this time.  It's the brief "dry warmth" before the slop bin humidity hits.  I always chuckle about the period from now until maybe mid-May being the perfect time for roofers to do their work without excessive rains and heat.  After that...

As an obs, I have already surpassed my yesterday's  high and am currently mostly sunny and 76 with dp 48.

There's actually an entire field dedicated to modeling this kind of stuff using differential equations-- I did a bit of it in engineering school but never became a true expert. Its very important for game mangement and issueing the proper numbers of hunting permits and fishing limits. Accorns in particular are an important nutrition source for deer and wild turkey (accorns also can be turned into flour for human cooking). I also noticed a bumber crop of pine cones at my house. It should be interesting to see how the beech nut and walnut crop does.