March Banter 2023

[George BM]

 

Baby Yoda: Hot off the press!

 

NWSGeorgeBM Headquarters

Forecast Discussion

Sunday, June 25, 2023 4:44PM EDT

Surface dewpts and surface temps have jumped into the mid 70s and mid/upper 80s respectively over the past few hours behind the warm front. The associated elevated showers/storms have lifted into the northern tip of the Chesapeake Bay/SE PA/ Delaware area. Dewpts will rise a few more degrees into the upper 70s w/ upper 80s air temps on breezy SSE winds ahead of a potent shortwave. Steep MLLRs (7-7.5C/km) have overspread the region w/ LLLRs approaching 7C/km. Over the next one to two hours as the shortwave and associated MCS approaches and lift increases a weak cap around the 800-750mb layer will be eroded. With the very fast deep-layer(700-400mb) westerly flow (55-60+kts) and large hodographs, effective bulk-shear easily exceeds 60kts w/ 250-350+m2/s2 of effective SRH. That combined with 3000-3500+J/kg MLCAPE will allow supercells to develop and rapidly mature producing very large(2.5”+) hail, severe winds and a few tornadoes, perhaps significant.

As the line of storms associated w/ the MCS/derecho moves east of the mountains by 22-23z they will further intensify in the high CAPE/ high shear environment w/ widespread damaging winds and significantly severe (hurricane-force) gusts looking likely. With large effective SRH, QLCS tornadoes will also be a decent threat. The supercells and MCS will affect the region between 21z and 1z. Afterwards a cold front will move through bringing gusty NW winds and cooler/drier air. Temps will fall into the upper 50s/lower 60s w/ dewpts into the 40s by dawn.

Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

 

Jerz2VA: D word. 

 

Zugzwang: Over/under on whether we see 1 million costumers lose power?

 

Baby Yoda: 80/20 maybe even 1.5 mil at peak. Significant severe wind probs with the watch is at 90%. Higher than it was in 2012 which was 70%.

 

Joe the Eskimo:

[nj2va]

NWS is splitting up PWC into two zones next week (NW PWC and the rest of the county):

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/PWZoneSplit

[Jebman]

6 hours ago, George BM said:

 

Baby Yoda: Hot off the press!

 

NWSGeorgeBM Headquarters

Forecast Discussion

Sunday, June 25, 2023 4:44PM EDT

Surface dewpts and surface temps have jumped into the mid 70s and mid/upper 80s respectively over the past few hours behind the warm front. The associated elevated showers/storms have lifted into the northern tip of the Chesapeake Bay/SE PA/ Delaware area. Dewpts will rise a few more degrees into the upper 70s w/ upper 80s air temps on breezy SSE winds ahead of a potent shortwave. Steep MLLRs (7-7.5C/km) have overspread the region w/ LLLRs approaching 7C/km. Over the next one to two hours as the shortwave and associated MCS approaches and lift increases a weak cap around the 800-750mb layer will be eroded. With the very fast deep-layer(700-400mb) westerly flow (55-60+kts) and large hodographs, effective bulk-shear easily exceeds 60kts w/ 250-350+m2/s2 of effective SRH. That combined with 3000-3500+J/kg MLCAPE will allow supercells to develop and rapidly mature producing very large(2.5”+) hail, severe winds and a few tornadoes, perhaps significant.

As the line of storms associated w/ the MCS/derecho moves east of the mountains by 22-23z they will further intensify in the high CAPE/ high shear environment w/ widespread damaging winds and significantly severe (hurricane-force) gusts looking likely. With large effective SRH, QLCS tornadoes will also be a decent threat. The supercells and MCS will affect the region between 21z and 1z. Afterwards a cold front will move through bringing gusty NW winds and cooler/drier air. Temps will fall into the upper 50s/lower 60s w/ dewpts into the 40s by dawn.

Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

 

Jerz2VA: D word. 

 

Zugzwang: Over/under on whether we see 1 million costumers lose power?

 

Baby Yoda: 80/20 maybe even 1.5 mil at peak. Significant severe wind probs with the watch is at 90%. Higher than it was in 2012 which was 70%.

 

Joe the Eskimo:

You're NO wannabe. Thats an excellent forecast!

[CAPE]

29 with freezing fog.

In like a lamb though.

[H2O]

Daffodil season!!!

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, H2O said:

Daffodil season!!!

Welcome to 2 weeks ago

[WxUSAF]

I assume Twitter is f-ed up for other people this morning too?

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I assume Twitter is f-ed up for other people this morning too?

I’m not on social media but saw this in the WSJ:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/twitter-users-unable-to-access-platform-in-apparent-outage-82726c64?mod=hp_lista_pos1

[H2O]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I assume Twitter is f-ed up for other people this morning too?

It hasn't worked well since you know who took over.  But its gotten worse lately and this morning has been bad.

[mappy]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I assume Twitter is f-ed up for other people this morning too?

yep. feed wouldn't update at all. seems to be working again for me though. 

[09-10 analogy]

10 hours ago, George BM said:

 

Baby Yoda: Hot off the press!

 

NWSGeorgeBM Headquarters

Forecast Discussion

Sunday, June 25, 2023 4:44PM EDT

Surface dewpts and surface temps have jumped into the mid 70s and mid/upper 80s respectively over the past few hours behind the warm front. The associated elevated showers/storms have lifted into the northern tip of the Chesapeake Bay/SE PA/ Delaware area. Dewpts will rise a few more degrees into the upper 70s w/ upper 80s air temps on breezy SSE winds ahead of a potent shortwave. Steep MLLRs (7-7.5C/km) have overspread the region w/ LLLRs approaching 7C/km. Over the next one to two hours as the shortwave and associated MCS approaches and lift increases a weak cap around the 800-750mb layer will be eroded. With the very fast deep-layer(700-400mb) westerly flow (55-60+kts) and large hodographs, effective bulk-shear easily exceeds 60kts w/ 250-350+m2/s2 of effective SRH. That combined with 3000-3500+J/kg MLCAPE will allow supercells to develop and rapidly mature producing very large(2.5”+) hail, severe winds and a few tornadoes, perhaps significant.

As the line of storms associated w/ the MCS/derecho moves east of the mountains by 22-23z they will further intensify in the high CAPE/ high shear environment w/ widespread damaging winds and significantly severe (hurricane-force) gusts looking likely. With large effective SRH, QLCS tornadoes will also be a decent threat. The supercells and MCS will affect the region between 21z and 1z. Afterwards a cold front will move through bringing gusty NW winds and cooler/drier air. Temps will fall into the upper 50s/lower 60s w/ dewpts into the 40s by dawn.

Forecaster Wannabe: George BM

 

Jerz2VA: D word. 

 

Zugzwang: Over/under on whether we see 1 million costumers lose power?

 

Baby Yoda: 80/20 maybe even 1.5 mil at peak. Significant severe wind probs with the watch is at 90%. Higher than it was in 2012 which was 70%.

 

Joe the Eskimo:

Well done!

[Jebman]

Time sensitive! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams That drift on the 8200' level platform is 6 feet high in places! Those folks really know how to remove deep snow! What's six mere feet of snow to Palisades? They just break out the 'ole rotary blower! The webcams are patently ridiculous! Snow is up to the left bottom of the Siberian Express, and the chair there is BURIED in snow! They have five to six feet of snow on the 8200' level platform! They get 2-3 days' break then another storm smashes down on Tahoe with another 3-4 feet of snow!

 

[mappy]

Spring! Tulips! Down with Winter! 

[WinterWxLuvr]

22 minutes ago, mappy said:

Spring! Tulips! Down with Winter! 

I can get on board with this

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I can get on board with this

down with that stupid avatar too  tulips until April, then TORNADOES 

[Jebman]

50 minutes ago, mappy said:

Spring! Tulips! Down with Winter! 

We have 30 percent foliage already, it is 84/70 right now, at a time when normal HIGHS in Buda are 66, the DEWPOINT is 70 lol

[NorthArlington101]

Okay, totally idiot question that will again out me as one of the youngest members here -- though I bet @Cobalt knows the answer to this anyway. What was so special about '93 locally? I understand how nuts the whole system was, but it looks like just a solid MECS - maybe HECS out west - every time I look at the snow map. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Okay, totally idiot question that will again out me as one of the youngest members here -- though I bet @Cobalt knows the answer to this anyway. What was so special about '93 locally? I understand how nuts the whole system was, but it looks like just a solid MECS - maybe HECS out west - every time I look at the snow map. 

I was farther west then so I can’t speak to the Blue Ridge and east. Lowest pressure ever in DC. That tells ya something 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 hours ago, H2O said:

Daffodil season!!!

The crazy pickles (Daffy Dills!!) are blooming all over here right now!

[Jebman]

Its 87/70 and the sun's out. I have been dragging branches felled by the ICE a month ago lol, and I am HOT AS HECK!

 Is it too much to ask for a cool front with 15 mph winds and 70/50 weather? NO MORE ice! I dont want winter weather, just cool weather with a 15mph breeze.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Okay, totally idiot question that will again out me as one of the youngest members here -- though I bet @Cobalt knows the answer to this anyway. What was so special about '93 locally? I understand how nuts the whole system was, but it looks like just a solid MECS - maybe HECS out west - every time I look at the snow map. 

Well, I wasn't here for that event (was in northeast OH at the time), but locally DCA recorded I think 6.6" as I recall?  Of course, that's DCA measuring.  But many others in the metro area received a foot or more even, before sleet and ice moved in.  The storm was obviously "special" on the large scale given the wide area it covered, with anything from severe weather to blizzard conditions and feet of snow (48" in Syracuse, something like that!).  Not to mention unreal heavy snows in AL/GA...in March.  From what I've read about that storm for the local DC-Balt area, it still met blizzard condition criteria.  For a mid-March storm in this area, that's quite impressive.  There was also some pretty deep cold for a couple of days after that (true for much of the eastern 1/4 or so of the country).  So maybe not a HECS in the metro areas just going by snowfall amount...but definitely taking into consideration everything else (wind, cold, snow, and ice).

In northeast OH where I was, we were on the western edge of that storm and still had blizzard conditions.  About 8-12" snow locally and gusty winds, along with temperatures in the teens or low 20s.

 

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I was farther west then so I can’t speak to the Blue Ridge and east. Lowest pressure ever in DC. That tells ya something 

Not sure what the pressure was in DC (DCA), but I recall the central pressure of that storm was on the order of ~960mb at its peak.  To compare and give an idea of just how big that is, the Ohio Blizzard of 1978 (Jan. 26-27, 1978), which I lived through, went right through Cleveland.  KCLE recorded their lowest pressure on record, 28.28" (957mb) as it went through.  That may still stand as the 2nd lowest non-tropical storm pressure in the continental US.  We didn't get extremely heavy snowfall from that...7" at KCLE, a bit more west...but 40+ MPH winds and gusts pushing 100 MPH near the lakeshore, along with temperatures in the single digits made it extremely dangerous (temps fell from mid 40s to the teens in about 2 hours, during the pre-dawn hours, and continued falling into the single digits for the rest of the day).  That snow fell on top of about a foot of older crusty snow that already was on the ground.

[Jebman]

3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well, I wasn't here for that event (was in northeast OH at the time), but locally DCA recorded I think 6.6" as I recall?  Of course, that's DCA measuring.  But many others in the metro area received a foot or more even, before sleet and ice moved in.  The storm was obviously "special" on the large scale given the wide area it covered, with anything from severe weather to blizzard conditions and feet of snow (48" in Syracuse, something like that!).  Not to mention unreal heavy snows in AL/GA...in March.  From what I've read about that storm for the local DC-Balt area, it still met blizzard condition criteria.  For a mid-March storm in this area, that's quite impressive.  There was also some pretty deep cold for a couple of days after that (true for much of the eastern 1/4 or so of the country).  So maybe not a HECS in the metro areas just going by snowfall amount...but definitely taking into consideration everything else (wind, cold, snow, and ice).

In northeast OH where I was, we were on the western edge of that storm and still had blizzard conditions.  About 8-12" snow locally and gusty winds, along with temperatures in the teens or low 20s.

 

Not sure what the pressure was in DC (DCA), but I recall the central pressure of that storm was on the order of ~960mb at its peak.  To compare and give an idea of just how big that is, the Ohio Blizzard of 1978 (Jan. 26-27, 1978), which I lived through, went right through Cleveland.  KCLE recorded their lowest pressure on record, 28.28" (957mb) as it went through.  That may still stand as the 2nd lowest non-tropical storm pressure in the continental US.  We didn't get extremely heavy snowfall from that...7" at KCLE, a bit more west...but 40+ MPH winds and gusts pushing 100 MPH near the lakeshore, along with temperatures in the single digits made it extremely dangerous (temps fell from mid 40s to the teens in about 2 hours, during the pre-dawn hours, and continued falling into the single digits for the rest of the day).

I remember that storm well, even now. We got 8 inches of snow before the heavy sleet started. Then it went to rain for a few hours, then mixed with sleet then we had snow blowing around on top of an ice layer! I remember we were all at Godwin Middle that night, (it isnt called Godwin anymore) sliding down the ice hill with heavy snow blowing around! We got three additional inches of snow on top of the ice.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 hours ago, mappy said:

yep. feed wouldn't update at all. seems to be working again for me though. 

@mappy, your spring avatar reminds me...tulip photos coming not too long from now (well, OK, later in April)!!  Will post those when I take them of course, as I normally do!  In the mean time, probably some other spring flowers as they come out.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

Beautiful clear view of the Venus Jupiter conjunction right now. So glad the mostly cloudy forecast busted. 

[mappy]

34 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

@mappy, your spring avatar reminds me...tulip photos coming not too long from now (well, OK, later in April)!!  Will post those when I take them of course, as I normally do!  In the mean time, probably some other spring flowers as they come out.

Look forward to seeing them friend! 

[mattie g]

5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You’re insane and obviously know nothing of the 93 storm. You’re judging a weather event based upon how much snow fell in your yard alone. Granted it wouldn’t have been as awesome had I not gotten nearly 30” of snow, it was an event that has no equal when you consider it covered from Florida to Maine. Do some research.

 

5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I was farther west then so I can’t speak to the Blue Ridge and east. Lowest pressure ever in DC. That tells ya something 

But who cares a out the weather in Florida or what the barometer reading was.

IMBY results is what it’s all about.

[Jebman]

3 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Beautiful clear view of the Venus Jupiter conjunction right now. So glad the mostly cloudy forecast busted. 

I saw that last night in our western skies down here in Texas!

[Jebman]

Wow, snow is supposed to be over in the Palisades, but have a look at the 8200' level platform!

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

Its POURING snow again! Would you check out that huge drift that they used the snow blower on earlier! That is a LOT of snow! Check out the Siberian Express webcam! They are up there with a  snowcat, I am sure they are trying so hard to dig out the chairs! This is what happens when you get twelve feet of snow in 8 days! Plus that damned wind is blowing upslope, drifting hell out of the very area they are trying so hard to clear! It is dry powdery snow at 11 degrees! I JUST LOVE TO WATCH ALL THAT DEEP SNOW BLOWING AROUND IN A MILKSHAKE FROTH!!!!!!!!

[Jebman]

It just wants to snow but good in the Palisades, and it is STILL pouring snow, in spite of a partly cloudy forecast there.

https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams

[BlizzardNole]

Running Springs, CA knows how to do car-toppers