snowfan Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 About that wind tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 11 hours ago, MN Transplant said: The NAM Nest is pretty aggressive on the post-frontal winds on Saturday evening. Gusts in the 50s. Same with the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 As the wind threat has moved from the global to the mesoscale model range, the view of the character of the event has changed. Rather than a lengthy synoptic event, the NAM and HRRR both have an intense surge of wind accompanying the frontal passage. Might be wild for a shorter period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: As the wind threat has moved from the global to the mesoscale model range, the view of the character of the event has changed. Rather than a lengthy synoptic event, the NAM and HRRR both have an intense surge of wind accompanying the frontal passage. Might be wild for a shorter period. Yea. 06z NAM has a nice 55-60kt streak at 925 mb moving smack dab over the DC metro region at 00z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea. 06z NAM has a nice 55-60kt streak at 925 mb moving smack dab over the DC metro region at 00z Sunday. If the event ends up looking like the NAM above, we are going to see massive severe thunderstorm warning boxes accompanying that line for wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just now, MN Transplant said: If the event ends up looking like the NAM above, we are going to see massive severe thunderstorm warning boxes accompanying that line for wind. Nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 06z NAM Nest 1hr max gust product. Large area of 60mph+ in MD. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Long-range HRRR which I, usually anyways, find does well with wind gusts in a well-mixed environment like tomorrows has 45-50+kt gusts w/ the frontal passage. A short-lived HWW or, like MN Transplant just mentioned, an April 30, 2021-like situation w/ STWs wouldn't surprise me. But I'm just reiterating what everyone has already said this morning. ... IAD got down to 35F overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Here are the other models for Saturday afternoon at the peak gust period in the 95 corridor. Euro remains least interested and the GFS remains quite excited. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 ^Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 55 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: If the event ends up looking like the NAM above, we are going to see massive severe thunderstorm warning boxes accompanying that line for wind. I've seen this happen many times before and during said gusty showers I've heard people asking "where's the lightning?" But those sudden bursts of wind can be worrisome to downright lethal particularly to mariners. Lots of deciduous, particularly oaks this time of the year will often become widow makers releasing a torrent of branches up to an inch or more in diameter which can cause nuisance outages in the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Still looking pretty windy for out here in Deep Creek? I’m ready to dodge limbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormfly said: I've seen this happen many times before and during said gusty showers I've heard people asking "where's the lightning?" But those sudden bursts of wind can be worrisome to downright lethal particularly to mariners. Lots of deciduous, particularly oaks this time of the year will often become widow makers releasing a torrent of branches up to an inch or more in diameter which can cause nuisance outages in the country. Biggest convective gust I witnessed was in Philly as a kid. We got a severe t'storm warning from a low topped line of convection. Only had 1 rumble of thunder, but got a M63 mph wind gust on my home weather station. We had a lot of large trees down and a neighborhood church got damage to it's steeple roof. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 31, 2023 Author Share Posted March 31, 2023 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Biggest convective gust I witnessed was in Philly as a kid. We got a severe t'storm warning from a low topped line of convection. Only had 1 rumble of thunder, but got a M63 mph wind gust that took down huge trees and damaged a church steeple in my neighborhood. I would ask whether it was the Nov. 20, 1989 low-dewpt derecho but I believe that may have been before your time(?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, George BM said: I would ask whether it was the Nov. 20, 1989 low-dewpt derecho but I believe that may have been before your time(?) No, early 2000s. Somewhere in the 2003 - 2005 timeframe. Can't find it off the top of my head in the SPC event archive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 13 minutes ago, George BM said: I would ask whether it was the Nov. 20, 1989 low-dewpt derecho but I believe that may have been before your time(?) Wow I do remember that one! I was working graveyard shift and was awakened from my nap around dinner time by whistling winds and barking dogs. Checked the Heathkit ID-4001 and it looked like a speedometer on the highway! Sustained in the 40s and gusts in the upper 50s. Lights were flickering and the sky was lighting up but knew it wasn't lightning as lighting isn't green! That was a sneaky one for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VirgilCain Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormfly said: I've seen this happen many times before and during said gusty showers I've heard people asking "where's the lightning?" But those sudden bursts of wind can be worrisome to downright lethal particularly to mariners. Lots of deciduous, particularly oaks this time of the year will often become widow makers releasing a torrent of branches up to an inch or more in diameter which can cause nuisance outages in the country. Not sure if it was the same meteorological set up, but I remember when this happened - it capsized a water taxi and killed 5 people in the harbor: https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/baltimore-city/bal-remembering-the-baltimore-seaport-taxi-tragedy-of-2004-20170303-story.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 12z mesoscale runs (edit - 12z NAM isn't out yet on weather.us, I'll update when it is). These are dependent on some level of convection bringing down the winds. The HRRR keeps most of the convection to the north in MD and it is spottier (the time step before has 70mph winds in the hills near Frederick). The NAM has a more consolidated line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Will be curious to see if LWX goes with wind advisories or high wind warnings - seems if it's going to be dependent on a line they might just do wind advisories with the exception of the high elevations and then cover the more intense short-term wind threat with special weather statements or severe "thunderstorm" warnings. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Will be curious to see if LWX goes with wind advisories or high wind warnings - seems if it's going to be dependent on a line they might just do wind advisories with the exception of the high elevations and then cover the more intense short-term wind threat with special weather statements or severe "thunderstorm" warnings. That makes a lot of sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 12Z NAM nest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 High Wind Watch expanded east into the Baltimore/DC area. Quote 1148 AM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY EVENING...* WHAT...West winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mphpossible.* WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland, The Districtof Columbia, and northern Virginia.* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and powerlines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could bedifficult, especially for high profile vehicles.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are most likely lateSaturday afternoon through mid Saturday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Pretty decent temp bust so far. Still a little chilly out there. Hoping the warm front moves through before the rain arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 1 hour ago, VirgilCain said: Not sure if it was the same meteorological set up, but I remember when this happened - it capsized a water taxi and killed 5 people in the harbor: https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/baltimore-city/bal-remembering-the-baltimore-seaport-taxi-tragedy-of-2004-20170303-story.html Yes often times conditions on the water deteriorate extremely rapidly and mariners in small craft are extremely vulnerable. Just the other night there was an advisory for such conditions. My Tempest that lives 70' AGL on a tower picked up some pretty strong bursts and I patrolled the PTZ across the higher spruces and they were dancing noticeably. Would not want to be out on the water in a small ketch for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 High wind watch in effect for the metros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 Wind is one weather condition we're not half bad at in the DMV. Too bad wind sucks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 In like a lion, out like a ide https://ibb.co/26dq2cT https://ibb.co/C1FGzWv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 High Wind Warning up for DC/BWI metros URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 229 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>506-VAZ040-053-054-501-505-506- 526-527-010230- /O.UPG.KLWX.HW.A.0002.230401T1600Z-230402T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.W.0002.230401T1600Z-230402T0400Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Rappahannock- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Warrenton, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 229 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph Saturday afternoon, becoming northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph Saturday evening. * WHERE...Portions of central and northern Maryland, The District of Columbia, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From noon Saturday to midnight EDT Saturday night. The strongest winds are expected Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 4 hours ago, Stormfly said: Wow I do remember that one! I was working graveyard shift and was awakened from my nap around dinner time by whistling winds and barking dogs. Checked the Heathkit ID-4001 and it looked like a speedometer on the highway! Sustained in the 40s and gusts in the upper 50s. Lights were flickering and the sky was lighting up but knew it wasn't lightning as lighting isn't green! That was a sneaky one for sure. The reference to Heathkit weather stations brings back memories. Built my first weather station in 75, which measured 70+mph gusts during the blizzard of 78. Hard to tell exactly how fast the wind was blowing because the anemometer was analog with a manual gust needle that measured "peek" readings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 31, 2023 Share Posted March 31, 2023 oh boy, wind. Kiddo is competing in a dance competition this weekend in Columbia, so here's hoping I can make it to/from the theater without being blown off the highways hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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