nj2va Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 3 hours ago, vastateofmind said: I know, RIGHT?? That minute or two of extra daylight each day makes such a difference in my attitude and outlook this time of year. I was just thinking the same thing. What a difference with the longer days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 12 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Still a huge difference on the globals for Friday/Saturday. The Euro is gross, dragging down a front and leaving us in the 40s/50s, while the GFS delays the front and then sends it back north with the next low, leaving us in the 70s. GFS/Euro/ICON/Meteoblue from Windy LWX .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Uncertainty remains wrt the temp forecast Friday into Saturday due to where a frontal boundary will stall. Models continue to show a 20- 30 degree spread in high temps during this period. With the front stalled nearby, a sfc low will track along the front. Some guidance shows a wedge of stable/cool air to the east of the Alleghenies with highs only staying in the 50s north of I-66 on Friday, however some guidance erodes the wedge rather quickly. Ensemble guidance and the NBM show the most likely solution at this time is the front stalls somewhere near the FA and a gradient in temperatures exists with near 70 across the southern areas and upper 50s along the Mason- Dixon. Should a warmer scenario come to fruition, the potential for enough instability rooted in the boundary layer to result in surface-based convection/thunderstorms, especially during the Saturday period as the strong sw trough moves through. Given favorable mid-level lapse rates of 6-7C/km coupled with 60-70 kts in the 850-700 mb layer, there could be the attendant risk for severe weather if this scenario works out given the strong dynamics and shear at play. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 low of 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 Tied the record low for the date from 1986, 16.0 degrees. Currently 19.5/15.8 with some high cirrus in the sky. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 17 .1 this morning out in the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: LWX .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Uncertainty remains wrt the temp forecast Friday into Saturday due to where a frontal boundary will stall. Models continue to show a 20- 30 degree spread in high temps during this period. With the front stalled nearby, a sfc low will track along the front. Some guidance shows a wedge of stable/cool air to the east of the Alleghenies with highs only staying in the 50s north of I-66 on Friday, however some guidance erodes the wedge rather quickly. Ensemble guidance and the NBM show the most likely solution at this time is the front stalls somewhere near the FA and a gradient in temperatures exists with near 70 across the southern areas and upper 50s along the Mason- Dixon. Should a warmer scenario come to fruition, the potential for enough instability rooted in the boundary layer to result in surface-based convection/thunderstorms, especially during the Saturday period as the strong sw trough moves through. Given favorable mid-level lapse rates of 6-7C/km coupled with 60-70 kts in the 850-700 mb layer, there could be the attendant risk for severe weather if this scenario works out given the strong dynamics and shear at play. Get that wedge north of here, please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 6 hours ago, nj2va said: Get that wedge north of here, please. This morning’s NAM was the worst of the bunch (midday 40s). The GFS took a step back too. Friday looks gross. Saturday is still unsettled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 ^Old E/E rule right there. Expect da wedgie. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 44 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: That's straight up nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 21, 2023 Share Posted March 21, 2023 17 minutes ago, nj2va said: That's straight up nasty. The 12z GFS developed a small surface reflection Friday night over West Virginia that scoots northeast to NYC. If that happens, there might be enough SW flow to erode the wedge and salvage Saturday. But make no mistake, we are entering backdoor cold front season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: The 12z GFS developed a small surface reflection Friday night over West Virginia that scoots northeast to NYC. If that happens, there might be enough SW flow to erode the wedge and salvage Saturday. But make no mistake, we are entering backdoor cold front season. it's way way worse the further north you go. There were many April days where we'd be stuck in the 40s/50s in NYC while you all would be basking in the 70s and 80s. And then up in Boston that shit lasts until late May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 weather-wise, living in Boston for the winter would be nice. But their spring is a dealbreaker. Nope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 6 hours ago, MN Transplant said: This morning’s NAM was the worst of the bunch (midday 40s). The GFS took a step back too. Friday looks gross. Saturday is still unsettled. Most of Friday looks nasty for sure. That said, we'll end up with a high in the 61-65 range due to the temperature at 12:01 AM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 9 hours ago, high risk said: Most of Friday looks nasty for sure. That said, we'll end up with a high in the 61-65 range due to the temperature at 12:01 AM. YEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 22, 2023 Author Share Posted March 22, 2023 Given the kinematics tomorrow would be potentially fun IF there was a little more CAPE. Early in the year for a WNW flow regime to work. Hopefully soon. We are due. ^Evergreen line above... ... Currently 50/23 at IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Had a nice 42 degree temp spread yesterday, 61.5-19.5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Beauty of a day today. 67.6 as a high. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 22, 2023 Share Posted March 22, 2023 Well... sitting at 49.6 degrees, a full 8 degrees cooler than the forecast. We shall see what the rest of the late afternoon brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 22, 2023 Author Share Posted March 22, 2023 If we don't get too much cloud cover/shower activity during the day tomorrow CAMs such as the RAP and HRRR get us a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE w/ fast WNW flow aloft leading to decent deep-layer shear. Said clouds/showers may keep a stable-layer near the surface but there could still see a limited sub-severe hail threat... maybe an enhanced wind gust if there's more sunshine to steepen LLLRs. This a low threat overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 I doubt that! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonTownT Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 First thunder boomer of the year rolling through Towson. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Wow, already 60 degrees at 10:45 am with mostly cloudy skies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 A little sunshine today and we will likely hit 80 in Montclair. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 I think we end up with a decent afternoon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 EDIT: NAM/HRRR insistent that we break out well into the warm section this afternoon and get well into the 70s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Absolutely brutal tomorrow 80s so close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 71 degrees here at 1:30 pm with a stiff SW breeze 11 gusting 23. Thank goodness from 2012's 82.5 record high, or we'd probably be heading for one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: 71 degrees here at 1:30 pm with a stiff SW breeze 11 gusting 23. Thank goodness from 2012's 82.5 record high, or we'd probably be heading for one! 71 here as well - yeah I feel like by late March most of the records are gonna be 80+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: 71 here as well - yeah I feel like by late March most of the records are gonna be 80+. With 90s sprinkled in. For DCA, the record today is 93 (1907.) Not sure what was going on in 1907. All three 90+ degree March records happened then. In an above avg. snowfall year. Including 6" in March... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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