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March Discobs 2023


George BM
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We reached a high of 45 this afternoon...but I'm sure as hell glad that I did the first initial full front/backyard mowing yesterday, when it was 5-7 degrees warmer. I'm honestly trying to remember, and I don't think I've ever had to do the "first big mow" this early in the season...usually ended up being first week of April in the past 10-20 years. But, tons of weeds, and early patches of high, neon-green spurts of grass growth meant that the whole thing required an even cut at this point. All good.  :) 

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We rolling out this way, winds went calm around 5 am and temp has dropped like a rock. At 7 am it was 16.8 degrees, DP 9.0 and that sets a new record for the date, breaking the 17 degree reading from 1981. Temp is STILL dropping and currently at 7:45 am it is 16.6 degrees. Likely a new record for tomorrow. BTW, at 5 am it was 22.1 degrees. EDIT-just realized that I DID break the 'cool max' for the date too, 35.6 degrees was high, old mark was 36 degrees from 1981. Had it backwards there for a minute lol.

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50 minutes ago, mappy said:

happy equinox!

Oh, HELL yeah. Sure, it's a little cooler than I like today....and after last night's temps, the magnolia trees now look like they're covered in last week's moldy porridge....but oh, I'm happy-dancing because official spring is here. (Now, to contend with the achy sinuses....)

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2 hours ago, vastateofmind said:

Oh, HELL yeah. Sure, it's a little cooler than I like today....and after last night's temps, the magnolia trees now look like they're covered in last week's moldy porridge....but oh, I'm happy-dancing because official spring is here. (Now, to contend with the achy sinuses....)

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Love the long days of sunlight. 

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12 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Still a huge difference on the globals for Friday/Saturday.  The Euro is gross, dragging down a front and leaving us in the 40s/50s, while the GFS delays the front and then sends it back north with the next low, leaving us in the 70s.

GFS/Euro/ICON/Meteoblue from Windy

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LWX

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Uncertainty remains wrt the temp forecast Friday into Saturday due
to where a frontal boundary will stall. Models continue to show a 20-
30 degree spread in high temps during this period. With the front
stalled nearby, a sfc low will track along the front. Some guidance
shows a wedge of stable/cool air to the east of the Alleghenies with
highs only staying in the 50s north of I-66 on Friday, however some
guidance erodes the wedge rather quickly. Ensemble guidance and the
NBM show the most likely solution at this time is the front stalls
somewhere near the FA and a gradient in temperatures exists with
near 70 across the southern areas and upper 50s along the Mason-
Dixon.

Should a warmer scenario come to fruition, the potential for enough
instability rooted in the boundary layer to result in surface-based
convection/thunderstorms, especially during the Saturday period as
the strong sw trough moves through. Given favorable mid-level lapse
rates of 6-7C/km coupled with 60-70 kts in the 850-700 mb layer,
there could be the attendant risk for severe weather if this scenario
works out given the strong dynamics and shear at play.
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