Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: Something has been trying to go up over Irving and Lewisville. It's struggling mightily though. But I will say, I'm seeing a lot more towering/billowing CU over the past half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Recent 18Z FWD showed substantial capping, but modifying the sounding for current conditions lessens the convective inhibition considerably. This modified sounding validates the current mesoanalysis, which suggests convective inhibition has eroded for area of north and central TX south of the Metroplex. A few surface-based storms are possible in this region, where wind profiles support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Surface analysis last hour: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Recent 18Z FWD showed substantial capping, but modifying the sounding for current conditions lessens the convective inhibition considerably. This modified sounding validates the current mesoanalysis, which suggests convective inhibition has eroded for area of north and central TX south of the Metroplex. A few surface-based storms are possible in this region, where wind profiles support supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes. Hopefully, they do a 21z sounding as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Quincy said: Surface analysis last hour: DFW airport is on the S side of the outflow now (2 pm) with ~20 mph S/SE winds. Not sure why nothing is developing S of the boundary yet, but the CINH on the 18Z sounding is gone, and SE 15-20 knots to SW 30 knots around 850 mb to SW 55 knots at 500 mb, that should produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: DFW airport is on the S side of the outflow now (2 pm) with ~20 mph S/SE winds. Not sure why nothing is developing S of the boundary yet, but the CINH on the 18Z sounding is gone, and SE 15-20 knots to SW 30 knots around 850 mb to SW 55 knots at 500 mb, that should produce. Weak forcing, although stuff is starting to become organized just north of the OFB. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Cells are forming in East Texas - will need to watch them to see if any of them can strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 No changes with the latest SPC Day 1 outlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 18Z 3km NAM more interested in line from W 6-7pm, but does develop cells around (not quite in) the Metroplex next 30 minutes, and soundings 2500 J/Kg ML CAPE, 60 knots shear, TT of 57, 7C low level, 8C 700-500 mb, that seems like it'd support gorilla hail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Eh, those cells still look to be struggling on radar right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Some activity is starting to percolate along the Johnson/Ellis County border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 70/30 Tor, 70/60 wind, 70/70 hail probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 The cells along I-35 in Southern Dallas County are really trying hard to organize. There's a subtle eastward shift to them though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Weather service thinks DFW mostly free of severe weather through 5PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Aside from that stuff in SE Dallas, pretty good clearing has moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryHavoc Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Look at this beast! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 29 minutes ago, Powerball said: The cells along I-35 in Southern Dallas County are really trying hard to organize. There's a subtle eastward shift to them though... It might be latching onto the residual outflow boundary… still looks like a grungy HP supercell with mainly a hail threat in the short term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Storms in Deep East Texas are starting to get "the look" to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Tornado warning in Stephens County, SW of Caddo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Durant, OK is building its own doppler because of the distance to OUN and FWD, Just learned that watching Ryan Hall. https://www.kten.com/story/46075087/durant-radar-to-enhance-texoma-storm-warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Brad Arnold has a TOG in Hopkings County, not warned. On Ryan Hall. East Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Brad Arnold has a TOG in Hopkings County, not warned. On Ryan Hall. East Texas. Getting bigger, and still not warned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Everything going up in E Tx is getting that bean shape and quickly developing rotation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Getting bigger, and still not warned. There is a TW out on it with spotter confirmed tornado 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Metroplex dodging a bullet given what's going on in east TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, yoda said: There is a TW out on it with spotter confirmed tornado Now there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now