Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Quincy said: True. Then there are times when all of the ingredients are off the charts and nothing happens. Severe weather is so complex. Absolutely, makes it the most exciting form of weather to track! Look forward to following your tweets later, always good stuff man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Last night ESE of San Antonio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Looks like a pretty substantial W shift of the Moderate/Enhanced areas with the incoming SPC Outlook. SE edges trimmed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, cstrunk said: Looks like a pretty substantial NW shift with the incoming SPC Outlook. Big shift west in MOD risk looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 15% tor probs dropped. 45% hail contour introduced in TX including DFW metro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Yeah things just not lining up well for tors. By time it looks favorable, everything is lined out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Not good when you have a W shift to cover 6M+ like this ... 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Per the SPC's discussion, the main reason the 15% area was dropped was because of poor timing for the ArkLaTx region. Probs are still about the same for DFW, and if anything, it's looking relatively better than it did yesterday (just not quite 15% probs better). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Storms going well inside the dry air in the BIg Country, sharp DP front, 70F to about 60F, between Corsicana and DFW. SE humid side to SW 'drier' (not dry, just drier), that seems like it wouldn't help cyclonic vorticity, but it does seem to be a boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 There'a still a fair amount of CINH in place, so I'm not surprised to see the current warm front cells struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I will say, however, clouds are gradually thinning here in the Metroplex with more sun coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Moderate Risk in the entire DFW metroplex is rare... 4/28/20 the last time. Not sure how far you'd have to go back before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, radarman said: Moderate Risk in the entire DFW metroplex is rare... 4/28/20 the last time. Not sure how far you'd have to go back before that Was October 2019 a moderate risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Oh, and it's nice to finally have an event that impacts DFW at an ideal time with a relatively clean and uncapped warm sector. Since I moved here, most of the "better" events have either been messy (a ton of low clouds / WAA showers / drizzle with cool surface temps), had capping issues or had poor timing (late evening / early morning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just gave the family in DFW the heads up. I think this one produces some things today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, Normandy said: Just gave the family in DFW the heads up. I think this one produces some things today Softball size hail kills less people (a pizza delivery driver in Fort Worth was killed during that tornadic storm (2000?) that hit downtown, running to get to his new truck and drive it under cover) but damages property over a lot bigger area than all but the longest tracked wedges, and the big tornado is possible, but the big hail seems more likely. The mid-90s Mayfest storm got my parents in Bedford (Mom is still alive and in Euless w/ my sister) a new roof. Roof was old, needed replacing, hail damage and AllState waived deductible for using Sears roofers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 52 minutes ago, Powerball said: Was October 2019 a moderate risk? I think DFW was on the southern edge of an enhanced risk for that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Small severe watch W/NW of metro DFW. I assume they will post a Tornado Watch later. SE winds near 20 mph and near 70F near Corsicana will liven this sounding up considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 54 minutes ago, Powerball said: Was October 2019 a moderate risk? ENH across Collin/Denton county, slight in Dallas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: I think DFW was on the southern edge of an enhanced risk for that It seems even the June 2019 Derecho was only Enhanced. It would be surprising to me if April 2011 was the last moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Small severe watch W/NW of metro DFW. I assume they will post a Tornado Watch later. SE winds near 20 mph and near 70F near Corsicana will liven this sounding up considerably. I think that's the right move. Either that or issue an extremely large and marathon length Tornado Watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: It seems even the June 2019 Derecho was only Enhanced. It would be surprising to me if April 2011 was the last moderate risk. Jan 10th 2020 was moderate just east of Dallas... Plano/Garland 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, Powerball said: It would be surprising to me if April 2011 was the last moderate risk. iirc some day in May 2015 had a moderate risk (might have even been tornado-driven as well). Anyways, I think we're approaching the points where obs > models, though I can't help but notice that recent HRRR runs really blow up convection (in the form of supercells) west/northwest of DFW, like in the area that has the severe thunderstorm watch atm. Wind fields don't look very favorable for TORs so maybe the hail threat actually maximizes there? Either way the QLCS can pose problems for us later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, TexMexWx said: iirc some day in May 2015 had a moderate risk (might have even been tornado-driven as well). Anyways, I think we're approaching the points where obs > models, though I can't help but notice that recent HRRR runs really blow up convection (in the form of supercells) west/northwest of DFW, like in the area that has the severe thunderstorm watch atm. Wind fields don't look very favorable for TORs so maybe the hail threat actually maximizes there? Either way the QLCS can pose problems for us later. Latest radar is starting to show some percolation of additional cells along the residual otuflow boundary from yesterday that's bisecting DFW We'll see if they start to organize... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, TexMexWx said: iirc some day in May 2015 had a moderate risk (might have even been tornado-driven as well). yep, good memory 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 2, 2023 Author Share Posted March 2, 2023 Dewpoint boundary is in the Metroplex now. DP bump not as important as S to SE winds near 20 mph which would enhance the hodo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Something has been trying to go up over Irving and Lewisville. It's struggling mightily though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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