hlcater Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Euro is kind of an outlier even among the ensembles. The trend in Texas over the past few days has been to unanimously slow this thing down which should bode for a more NWly track but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Eps mean anyone, pretty please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 post 12Z runs: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 No big changes from thoughts posted yesterday about the 3 plausible outcomes. While I wouldn't be surprised if we end up more rain and some backside snow in Chicago and burbs off to the west and southwest, we're still in the game. 12z Euro op fits the idea that this type of system could end up farther NW, even with downstream blocking. That said, the Euro op was too amped at this range for the pre-Christmas storm, also an anomalous setup. Still giving the Euro suite more weight, but too early for a firm call given the large spread in the guidance. Should see the goalposts start to narrow tonight and tomorrow.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 12z EPS at 10:1 ratio might be high 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 We were discussing the Feb. 1960 cyclone in a local St. Louis forum and so I decided to pull the reanalysis for it. It actually looks like a good analog to the current storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 We were discussing the Feb. 1960 cyclone in a local St. Louis forum and so I decided to pull the reanalysis for it. It actually looks like a good analog to the current storm.One of the more recent possible analogs to this storm that I can think of is the late November 2018 winter storm (blizzard warnings that didn't verify due to the wet snow were in effect but it was a high impact event). Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 5-10" heavy wet snowstorms that bisect the Chicago metro are standard fare in late winter and early spring. One of my favorite cement events: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 would settle for 3-4 of parachutes before going over to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Best thing going for those of us in southern MI is the mjo emerging in phase 7. Usually a ideal spot to be for those wanting a more southerly track across IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 18z NAM Kuchera while the 18z RGEM says what snow for IL. Michigan does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 34 minutes ago, Harry said: Best thing going for those of us in southern MI is the mjo emerging in phase 7. Usually a ideal spot to be for those wanting a more southerly track across IN/OH. The -NAO is good. Just wish we had a bit of a -AO or really a neutral one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 The Kuchera algorithm will probably be better for this event, but another way to produce an event "floor", particularly outside of the most intense banding, is positive snow depth change. It's basically always lower than 10:1 or Kuchera, so a good way to keep expectations in check, especially in heavy, wet snow settings. Can use soundings and perhaps Kuchera ratios to figure roughly how much you'd want to bump up amounts from positive snow depth change in the prolonged heaviest banding areas. One note of caution with the positive snow depth change is that if the model has an issue with snow depth parameterization, like the GFS did for for the ice storm, the positive snow depth change product will be affected. It's available for most guidance on Pivotal Wx, WxBell, and I assume Wx Models as well. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 24 minutes ago, Lightning said: The -NAO is good. Just wish we had a bit of a -AO or really a neutral one. Historically our best storms have come when that is near neutral. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Harry said: Historically our best storms have come when that is near neutral. Well I would take the RGEM 18Z run with ~8-12" for our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 18z GFS 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 There's that trusty southeast trend I've been waiting for! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z GFS Lock it now!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulder Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 It's always nice to have a model spread at this range, everyone has something to root for. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 I’ll bite on that hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 16 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z GFS Lock it in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Calling Michsnowfreak your table is ready for the 18Z GFS dinner party.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, mulder said: It's always nice to have a model spread at this range, everyone has something to root for. If we don't get a few porn runs than it wouldn't be a good model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Canadian with similar type track as gfs, but with less cold sector precip. The volatility between runs on these models still surprises me. Getting worse with more updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Canadian with similar type track as gfs, but with less cold sector precip. The volatility between runs on these models still surprises me. Getting worse with more updates. The track is most important IMO. Precip will typically fall into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 18z GEFS (either op run is an outlier or there are amped runs well northwest) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Sorry Baum I need to barrow this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 18z GEFS (either op run is an outlier or there are amped runs well northwest)Additional 18z GEFS content via WxBell and Pivotal Wx. I included the 50th percentile 10:1 snowfall from WxBell. If there's any interest in additional percentile data, let me know. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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