sbnwx85 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 I’ve conceded this to be a rain maker in Northern Indiana that way if there’s a SE shift I’ll be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 hours ago, Lightning said: All the models are showing is the storm peaking well prior to MI. This is never a good sign for MBY. Obviously if u want big dog totals, it's ideal to have the storm peaking to your SE, but in this case for detroit, peaking earlier may help keep it all snow, otherwise this baby's tracking west of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 12z NAM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 gonna be rough watching clumper aggregates bury s wi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 @madwx If we get a foot out of this, I'll eat a hat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: gonna be rough watching clumper aggregates bury s wi cold rain for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: @madwx If we get a foot out of this, I'll eat a hat. the drying trend should start momentarily 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 12z GFS keeps most of the snow out of Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 12Z GFS is a N Illinois crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: cold rain for me. maybe, how close are u, i'm just a block off the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 39 minutes ago, bowtie` said: Pick your poison, This one... or this one... All the rain lately will help especially if wet trends continue into spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Kuchera maps will probably be more accurate for snowfall on this system as temperatures are very marginal and not sure we will even see 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Kuchera maps will probably be more accurate for snowfall on this system as temperatures are very marginal and not sure we will even see 10:1 ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Yeah, this thing is going to blow its wad too quick and end up drying out fast as it shoots east. What’s interesting is the pockets of heavier snow/QPF as shown on the 12z GFS. That tells me there’s gonna be a lot of convection in the warm sector that’ll probably rob moisture from the cold-side, hence the lower totals in areas where you wouldn’t expect it over central Missouri, north-central Illinois and especially in Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 12:49 PM, Powerball said: Call it what you want. But the current output would be a once in a 50-year event (and that's being generous, I mean how often do we see a widespred 12"+ blizzard along the STL-IND-DTW corridor?) And that's not accounting for the usual shenanigans the models have been pulling with over-amping these storms in the medium range. That said, it will probably end up being a decent run-of-the-mill storm (6-10" with some blowing/drifitng) for parts of the subforum when all said and done. And given the winter you all have had, it could be far worse. Looking good... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just remember cut model output qpf by 30%. It’s been this winters trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 19 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 12z GFS keeps most of the snow out of Wisconsin That swath starting to resemble a pencil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Yeah, this thing is going to blow its wad too quick and end up drying out fast as it shoots east. What’s interesting is the pockets of heavier snow/QPF as shown on the 12z GFS. That tells me there’s gonna be a lot of convection in the warm sector that’ll probably rob moisture from the cold-side, hence the lower totals in areas where you wouldn’t expect it over central Missouri, north-central Illinois and especially in Michigan. Normally I would agree but with such a strong low and such a big slug of moisture it should be able to wrap plenty of precip into the deformation axis of the cyclone on the "cold" side of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Riding the GEM 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Riding the GEM GEM is slightly different from NAM and GFS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, Cary67 said: That swath starting to resemble a pencil gefs undeniably hot fwiw heavy aggregates are the best so fingers crossed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: maybe, how close are u, i'm just a block off the lake 3 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said: 3 miles too far imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 euro another madison special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 GDPS & UK are well southeast, but now the Euro comes in farther nw than any previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 need this to trend nw for more severe t'storm opportunity. . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 time 2 tor 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 White flag time. Euro and NAM teaming up. Deadly combo. Gonna be a good one for CID, MSN, MKE, and GRB. The usual suspects. Probably not enough time for MSP to reel this one in, but who knows. I can’t wait until we go suppression depression in mid March. Enough of the f*cking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just now, ILSNOW said: The 10:1 map shows nearly twice as much snow in Cedar Rapids than the Kuchera map does. That means super wet concrete snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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