Malacka11 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 How likely is there to be an actual wind threat with this storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 25 minutes ago, Stebo said: The 18z Euro is a bit NW of the 12z at the same time. A pretty large zone of ice with it too. Nice to have you back, Stebo. Always appreciate your insight and tactfulness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: How likely is there to be an actual wind threat with this storm? There should be some wind but this isn't surrounded by a very strong high, so even if this ends up sub 980mb it won't be a big wind bag. 3 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Nice to have you back, Stebo. Always appreciate your insight and tactfulness. Thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 18z EPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 28 minutes ago, Stebo said: There should be some wind but this isn't surrounded by a very strong high, so even if this ends up sub 980mb it won't be a big wind bag. Thank you This is 1/25 on 'roids...and going NW of us. Gonna b 34 Rainer for DTW again. Yay. But, we need the hydro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 18z EPS All of that variability makes me think this one will have surprises right up until the final 24hrs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 I’ll take a #36 large please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: This is 1/25 on 'roids...and going NW of us. Gonna b 34 Rainer for DTW again. Yay. But, we need the hydro We shall see, the thing I am watching is that it is already maximized on strength, I don't see this being stronger than 975mb. So there is a limitation how far left it can go, especially since it doesn't go negative until it gets into AR and as RC mentioned there is still a -NAO on going so it could come up and then move east, which would lead to more of an ice storm potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 16 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: This is 1/25 on 'roids...and going NW of us. Gonna b 34 Rainer for DTW again. Yay. But, we need the hydro You never know could be like you said or we are getting our ice skates out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, SolidIcewx said: I’ll take a #36 large please I'll take a #45 with extra cheese 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Either way. I'll ride the 34F and rain as a slight majority. Let's call it 50/30/20% for RN/ZR/IP outcome from here. And no, we won't need skates since our ground is anything but frozen. The ISW wasn't about slippery roads at all, nor can this be if ZR actually plays out. WPC does not see a snowstorm in our future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 16 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: All of that variability makes me think this one will have surprises right up until the final 24hrs. As we've seen many times this winter. Primarily when the thermals are mega-borderline. Some have still managed to produce a very narrow snowstorm zone, while others have just been cyber snow and little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: All of that variability makes me think this one will have surprises right up until the final 24hrs. There are a lot of Iowa hits in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: There are a lot of Iowa hits in there. I would really be surprised if it backed that far west, it would have to essentially go North from AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, Stebo said: I would really be surprised if it backed that far west, it would have to essentially go North from AR. Yeah, it'll probably end up around the average track and mostly miss me to the southeast. Honestly, whichever way it goes is fine considering it's nearly spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 The 18z EPS, while another shift northwest, still nicely shows the range of plausible outcomes for the heavy snow swath. There's roughly 3 camps and the swaths have a similar west southwest to east northeast orientation due to the NE/ENE surface low track. Can use Chicago proper as the dividing line for the 3 camps: 1) NW of Chicago 2) Bisecting Chicago3) SE of ChicagoI think 1 and 2 are about equally likely at this point and 3 is a bit less likely, given recent trends. If you want to give how this season has played out some extra weight, then scenario 1 currently has a bit higher probs than 2. None of the 3 scenarios can be ruled out at this range. There's likely a relative northward bound to how far north it can go, but on the other hand, an earlier negative tilt can result in a farther north approach before track slides east-northeast. Plus, a weaker block can contribute to the above, favoring scenario 1.For the middle ground scenario 2, we basically need to balance out the competing factors in this setup to allow for a sweet spot track for Chicago and closer surrounding suburbs. Scenario 3 would rely on later negative tilt or farther south approach and/or a stronger downstream block to provide stronger confluence. Since the system will be rapidly intensifying early on, a faster occlusion and opening up at 500 mb could potentially contribute to a farther south snow swath. Regarding icing potential, seems like the forecast surface high pressure position would favor extreme northern Indiana and southern lower MI more than out here, due to proximity to the supply of lower dew points with the surface high and strong easterly flow from the surface up to 850 mb providing replenishment. There's also likely to be a sleet zone north of the icing. Farther west, with the fairly marginal antecedent air mass, might be a narrow swath of sleet between the snow and rain areas, vs. pronounced icing. Note on this analysis: It's meant to be a bit more simplified to lay out 3 realistic outcomes. There's obviously more going on meteorologically. Another factor that's always a wildcard is convection in the true warm sector, which looks to extensive and intense in this setup (wouldn't be surprised at moderate to high risks both Thursday and Friday). 8 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Not liking the look of this. How far west is this going to go? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Not liking the look of this. How far west is this going to go? Nam doing nam things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Nam doing nam things maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 I wouldn't put any stock into the NAM until 24 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Resist the urge to look at the NAM for now. The parent 500 mb wave is completely off its domain, so the initialization over the Pacific is from the 18z GFS. Even when the main shortwave is on its domain, the NAM is still prone to wonkiness. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 30 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Not liking the look of this. How far west is this going to go? Denver 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Crazy amount of convection shown on the 0z Icon. If any of these solutions come to fruition you have to assume thundersnow and thundersleet in the cold sector. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 CMC'S like nah fuck yall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 00Z GEFS shifted a bit south. For my money at this range, giving the ECMWF/EPS the most weight (overall best NWP and 51 member high res ensemble), followed by the GFS/GEFS (for all its flaws it's not terrible and has done okay this year and the ensemble has improved with 30 members at higher resolution). Then the GEMs, then the UKMET (not having access to its ensemble precludes giving more weight to its forecast), then the NAM. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 The euro wants to play ball. Let’s gooooo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: The euro wants to play ball. Let’s gooooo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just your typical 100 mile northwest shift on the Euro. Ensembles indicated it was only a matter of time before the operational caught on. Another cold rain on the way. Congrats Chicagoland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 I don't like this new trend. Lol. Man I'm tired of cold rain. Just a smidge south would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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