March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm

[michsnowfreak]

What a cardio workout it was. Sucks to miss the best snows to my nw but can't complain because it was expected amd the snowband was relatively narrow to begin with.

 

This was a very spring like winter storm. Made its own cold air, blew in and roared with ferocity, now the next day is sunny, calm, and very melty/drippy.

 

 

[michsnowfreak]

4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

The CMC was not good, right for the wrong reasons in the Chicago metro. It was too weak and too far south with the surface low, and didn't capture the dynamic cooling that occurred to support the accums of 2-5" of paste in the southeast 1/3 of the CWA. It only gets credit for having the farther south precip swath.

GFS operational did fairly well and then once the ECMWF adjusted, it did pretty well, not a great performance overall though because it was too far north until pretty late in the game. We only have the UKMET via Pivotal Wx, but it did perform pretty well at a longer lead time.

NAMs performed the worst of the models we commonly utilize. HRRR and other CAMs did well with capturing the high winds in Central IL and IN.

This event was also a good case for the algorithm snow maps to be banned. Forecast positive snow depth change was the best option for snow amounts.

 

They're fun to look at but those snow algorithms are taken too seriously by most, myself included. You always hear "___ model overdid amounts" etc but really we should be looking at the qpf. 

[A-L-E-K]

The mound in Josh's second picture barely looks like snow, dat water content

[Stebo]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not sure if you got any rain/sleet, but it absolutely compacted here after pouring rain/sleet. 3.5 wet snow + rain/sleet + 2.0 wet snow = depth 4.2 of absolute concrete. 

DTW finished with 6.2", liquid total 1.11". Morning depth 5". With 6.2" at DTW, they have leap frogged me on season total, sitting at 27.4". My 5.5" puts me at 27.1". Love this lol:

WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  THUNDERSTORM                                                        
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          
  HEAVY SNOW                                                          
  SNOW                                                                
  LIGHT SNOW                                                          
  FOG                                                                 
  FOG W/VISIBILITY <= 1/4 MILE                                        
  HAZE                                                                
  BLOWING SNOW        

We had rain at the airport, and at home.

[Stebo]

5 hours ago, Powerball said:

The  snowfall map that were showing 12-20" were great for laughs though

No one expected that though.

[RCNYILWX]

They're fun to look at but those snow algorithms are taken too seriously by most, myself included. You always hear "___ model overdid amounts" etc but really we should be looking at the qpf. 

Other unfortunate aspect is that all the model run total maps shown by the TV mets are algorithm driven too, and we all own that forecast. My office didn't put out an explicit snow map on more public facing WxStory graphics (it was available on the probabilistic page) on our home page and social media until Thursday PM, but yet "we" forecasted 10" in the metro.

QPF and snow depth change maps, plus forecast soundings with omega are the way to go, plus its important to consider whether the DGZ is supersaturated. Looking at the Cobb output page helps too, although even that scientifically more rigorous methodology can have overdone ratios too. Better to play it conservative (ie. pos depth change including var density HRRR product OHweather mentioned) than to get burned with 10:1 and Kuchera ratios.

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[Stebo]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

Other unfortunate aspect is that all the model run total maps shown by the TV mets are algorithm driven too, and we all own that forecast. My office didn't put out an explicit snow map on more public facing WxStory graphics (it was available on the probabilistic page) on our home page and social media until Thursday PM, but yet "we" forecasted 10" in the metro.

QPF and snow depth change maps, plus forecast soundings with omega are the way to go, plus its important to consider whether the DGZ is supersaturated. Looking at the Cobb output page helps too, although even that scientifically more rigorous methodology can have overdone ratios too. Better to play it conservative (ie. pos depth change including var density HRRR product OHweather mentioned) than to get burned with 10:1 and Kuchera ratios.

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Any OCM putting out direct model output on tv is doing a disservice for us all. That's not forecasting, that is modelology.

[Stebo]

Personally I was actually quite pleased with the job done here in SEMI, including my own personal forecast for friends and family. Went with an area wide 5-10" and highlighted the areas north and west as being on the higher end of the scale. Most places ended up with 4-11".

[RCNYILWX]

Personally I was actually quite pleased with the job done here in SEMI, including my own personal forecast for friends and family. Went with an area wide 5-10" and highlighted the areas north and west as being on the higher end of the scale. Most places ended up with 4-11".

Good call on the slightly farther southeast track. Interestingly, the models that showed mid 970s mb pressures did well. It was a fascinating system overall - like a tropical system with snow, and an incredible amount of TSSN. Without a strong high pressure system to the north or northwest, proximity to the center of the low was the biggest driver in getting into that core of damaging northeast winds.

If the only detail you gave for a forecast for the Chicago area was that a 976 mb low would track north of the Ohio River, you'd say most of the metro would have been a lock for heavy snow. The fact that it was a nearly vertically stacked low meant that the mid level lows were more tucked in than a classic winter storm, keeping the deformation area/fronto banding also more tucked in.

The radar for a time was very reminiscent of 2/24/16 and the intensity of the banding resulted in strong low level subsidence and drying that overcame good mid-upper level lift and steep lapse rates in place across the central and northern metro. Just not our winter.

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[Stebo]

1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Good call on the slightly farther southeast track. Interestingly, the models that showed mid 970s mb pressures did well. It was a fascinating system overall - like a tropical system with snow, and an incredible amount of TSSN. Without a strong high pressure system to the north or northwest, proximity to the center of the low was the biggest driver in getting into that core of damaging northeast winds.

If the only detail you gave for a forecast for the Chicago area was that a 976 mb low would track north of the Ohio River, you'd say most of the metro would have been a lock for heavy snow. The fact that it was a nearly vertically stacked low meant that the mid level lows were more tucked in than a classic winter storm, keeping the deformation area/fronto banding also more tucked in.

The radar for a time was very reminiscent of 2/24/16 and the intensity of the banding resulted in strong low level subsidence and drying that overcame good mid-upper level lift and steep lapse rates in place across the central and northern metro. Just not our winter.

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Really had that feeling with how moist the storm was and all the incredible winds on the south side, and even on the north side to an extent.

[Powerball]

As of this morning, over 200K people were without power across the Detroit area. No doubt, really bad luck for those who had just got their power back on following the Ice Storm to only lose it again so quickly.

And apparently, there were still 9K people without power from the Ice Storm when this storm commenced.

I'm guessing RogueWaves is also still in the dark given his absence since last night.

[RogueWaves]

13 hours ago, Powerball said:

As of this morning, over 200K people were without power across the Detroit area. No doubt, really bad luck for those who had just got their power back on following the Ice Storm to only lose it again so quickly.

And apparently, there were still 9K people without power from the Ice Storm when this storm commenced.

I'm guessing RogueWaves is also still in the dark given his absence since last night.

DARK (k)NIGHT here alive and well living a pseudo 19th century lifestyle, lol

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Other unfortunate aspect is that all the model run total maps shown by the TV mets are algorithm driven too, and we all own that forecast. My office didn't put out an explicit snow map on more public facing WxStory graphics (it was available on the probabilistic page) on our home page and social media until Thursday PM, but yet "we" forecasted 10" in the metro.

QPF and snow depth change maps, plus forecast soundings with omega are the way to go, plus its important to consider whether the DGZ is supersaturated. Looking at the Cobb output page helps too, although even that scientifically more rigorous methodology can have overdone ratios too. Better to play it conservative (ie. pos depth change including var density HRRR product OHweather mentioned) than to get burned with 10:1 and Kuchera ratios.

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Exactly. Every event there are so many factors that play in to what kind of snow ratios you will see and model output perfecting this is a long way away. Knowing your climate certainly helps, but even that is only a part of the puzzle. In some cold events we see the flip side of this scenario, and we get a lot more snow than is forecast because it's so fluffy. Using all the above factors you mentioned, and especially important is giving a forecast range of amounts, it's all you guys can do and hope for the best lol. Unfortunately in the day when there are so many social media hypesters you guys will always take the flack.

[mimillman]

Glad I missed this unsurprising horror show

[RogueWaves]

@michsnowfreak

Feeling like I owe you an apology. More legit winter happened. In fact, the BEST of this winter happened, lol. Stranger things have happened, I just can't remember when. 

[nwohweather]

Some of the most insane sustained winds I’ve seen around these parts in quite sometime. CMI recorded a 70mph wind gust, with multiple trees uprooted, power outages, tree damage. 
 
while the snow didn’t really stick, the conditions were just legit for quite awhile. Such a dynamic system. 

It really was like a strong tropical storm, Cat 1 hurricane at the heart of the storm. Unreal winds as that storm gained strength, I believe the barometer fell below 29 in Findlay, OH on Friday evening

[michsnowfreak]

On 3/5/2023 at 10:05 PM, RogueWaves said:

@michsnowfreak

Feeling like I owe you an apology. More legit winter happened. In fact, the BEST of this winter happened, lol. Stranger things have happened, I just can't remember when. 

I personally wouldn't call it the best stretch. I'd probably call the last week of Jan to first week of Feb the best stretch, followed by Christmas week. But both the Feb 22 ice storm and Mar 3 snowstorm were very fun storms.

[RogueWaves]

27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I personally wouldn't call it the best stretch. I'd probably call the last week of Jan to first week of Feb the best stretch, followed by Christmas week. But both the Feb 22 ice storm and Mar 3 snowstorm were very fun storms.

While snow cover lasted after 1/25, this week's storm was by far the best of the season. That was my main point. Snow rates were very similar to two other events in the last notoriously warm winter 11/29/11 in Marshall, and 3/3/12 in NWMI. I will take a good grinder storm any day, but the intense storms are always exciting.