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March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm


Hoosier
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59 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Temps and dew points are solid above the colder guidance. Looking problematic for any accums in our IL counties and even NW IN will probably underperform unless it absolutely rips this afternoon following changeover.

Strengthening east northeast flow may help bring in slightly lower dew points and help there, but especially IWX CWA. Up here in the metro, there's forecast to be strong lift in the DGZ, though strong subsidence and some drying in the lower levels northwest of the f-gen banding, per forecast soundings.

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Just pouring rain here and temps are torching. Just can’t see any mode to make it snow here. Unfortunately, I see the HRRR is increasing rainfall totals for here. Going to make a bad flooding situation even worse. Bad times.

But thanks to you and OHweather for giving us your thoughts. It’s much appreciated. :)

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Are you leaning snow?

Yes, it will be coming down so hard that rain will struggle to mix in until it's later on at the end and it would be more so drizzle. You being right on the river has the greatest chance of seeing mix but I don't think it will be that much

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36 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Not sure what to think of the HRRR. It keeps showing a swath of heavy accumulating sleet, which the profiles aren't really supportive of that.

 

I stopped short of making the leap, but my suspicion is that the HRRR's algos are confusing rimed snowflakes and/or aggregates (with the convective elements) for sleet.

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11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Getting some very high wind gusts just north of the peak SLP.

66MPH at DEC and 63MPH at SET.

An argument could be made for a swath of High Wind Warnings from central IL across central/northern IN into NW Ohio for the next several hours. Hi-res models have been insistent on a broad corridor of 50-60 MPH gusts just N/NE of the low track this afternoon and early evening and the wind will have an easterly component, which with a wet ground which may make it easier to topple trees. Kind of an interesting set-up because it's all driven by the tightening pressure gradient and unusually strong isallobaric flow (blowing towards the rapid pressure falls from the SW) as opposed to mixing down stronger flow aloft...now that we're starting to see some 40-50+ knot measured gusts I think it gives credence to the idea. 

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