March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm

[SolidIcewx]

Models are looking good with the more se track. I would laugh if we have a nw adjustment to the track considering how it’s been. Also I wonder how the morning convection down south is going to effect moisture transport into the cold side of the system

[MikeGold]

Looks like ground zero will be the Ann Arbor area especially in the higher elevations on the west side. That is where it will be a couple degrees cooler and where the hills should be able to squeeze out some extra moisture with orographics in play due strong easterly winds. 

[SolidIcewx]

9 minutes ago, MikeGold said:

Looks like ground zero will be the Ann Arbor area especially in the higher elevations on the west side. That is where it will be a couple degrees cooler and where the hills should be able to squeeze out some extra moisture with orographics in play due strong easterly winds. 

I agree that extra 3-400 ft do make a difference I’ve noticed

[NEILwxbo]

28 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

6z Euro went east too. Waving the white flag on this one. Good luck to the peeps in Indiana and Michigan. Hope it over performs. 

I’m not sure I’d be waving the white flag if I lived in kankakee…

[OHweather]

This is disappointing for Chicago and surrounding areas (while it's still close for the southern suburbs, it will be an extremely sharp western/northwestern cut-off) but for those that cash in, this will be nuts. Seems like it starts getting good somewhere over far eastern IL or northern/western IN. With an outside-of-early-March-climo low pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley ahead of an extremely sharp, negatively tilted shortwave and deepening considerably while ingesting and lifting a very moist and somewhat unstable airmass precip amounts will be impressive.

The lift is progged to be maximized in the DGZ in the deform band that will peak in intensity from northern IN into southern/eastern lower Michigan, southern Ontario and northern NY this afternoon and evening. While it's too warm to snow now, dynamic cooling will be more than adequate later. 

This sounding supports production of all ice crystal types due to saturation and lift through an incredibly deep layer. However, with very impressive lift maximized in a weakly stable DGZ to go along with a deep 0 to -5C layer in the low-levels dendrite production will reign supreme aloft and large aggregates will result by the time they reach the surface. This kind of heavy snow with large flakes will have no problem cooling surface temps to 32-33F under the heart of the band once it gets going. 

Hi-res QPF guidance suggests 3-hourly precip rates of 0.75-1.25" in a narrow zone in the deform band as it peaks in intensity from northern IN and southern/eastern lower MI into southern ON this afternoon and early evening, with peak hourly rates of 0.25-0.50" implied. Snow ratios will probably be ~8:1 under the heart of the band when rates maximize (and will otherwise be less), suggesting hourly snow rates of 2-4" an hour are possible (if not likely) in a narrow zone where the snow band is heaviest. This will be 2-4" per hour of very heavy, wet, substantial snow. Outside of the heaviest band slightly warmer surface temperatures and lighter rates will lead to lower ratios and sharp snowfall gradients. 

While it seems like somewhere from northern/western IN (perhaps starting in far eastern IL) into southern/eastern MI and southern ON/northern NY will all be impacted by this heavy band, there's a consistent signal it will pivot somewhere over northern IN or southern/eastern MI. Where this occurs, 2-4" per hour rates will last a good 4-6 hours and storm totals jackpotting 12"+ (not sure what the max possible amount is given low ratios and marginal surface temps, maybe 16 or 18"?) are likely. Where this band pivots and the higher amounts occur it will be a crippling snowstorm as roads will be nearly impassable by late afternoon/early evening due to rapid accumulations of heavy, wet snow...and due to what will likely be more widespread tree damage and power-outages, given what will be an excessive amount of very sticky snow to go along with wind gusts over 40 MPH at times. My gut feeling is that Detroit proper will get several inches (3-6") of very wet snow with amounts quickly increasing to the west/northwest due to less urban influence and slightly more elevation. 

[King James]

39 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

6z Euro went east too. Waving the white flag on this one. Good luck to the peeps in Indiana and Michigan. Hope it over performs. 

Nah. I know you’re west of me but outside has that feel. We’ll get some action today 

[MikeGold]

33 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

I agree that extra 3-400 ft do make a difference I’ve noticed

Specifically just East of where Wagner road crosses 94. I was first made aware of that area by a snowplow driver who told me it is where he consistently runs into the most snow in previous winters. Dexter should also do great in this setup with its cooler temperatures although precip totals are normally a little less than Ann Arbor.

 

[Owensnow]

So for us non informed weather weenies would I be right in saying this stays snow here?

 

 

12Z NAM for XHA (Harrow Ontario, Canada)

 

2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI  7A 03-MAR  -0.1     0.7    1014      93      21             552     541    
FRI  1P 03-MAR   1.8     2.8    1005      83      94    0.00     550     546    
FRI  7P 03-MAR   0.7    -2.3     990      97      98    1.00     541     550    
SAT  1A 04-MAR   0.5    -4.5     992      95      69    0.48     536     543    
SAT  7A 04-MAR   0.9    -4.4    1008      94      64    0.01     542     536    
SAT  1P 04-MAR   2.3    -2.0    1014      92      26    0.00     548     537    
SAT  7P 04-MAR   0.7    -1.0    1018      98      86    0.00     548     534    
SUN  1A 05-MAR   0.6    -3.5    1020      98      86    0.00     545     529

 

[Lightning]

5 minutes ago, MikeGold said:

Specifically just East of where Wagner road crosses 94. I was first made aware of that area by a snowplow driver who told me it is where he consistently runs into the most snow in previous winters. Dexter should also do great in this setup with its cooler temperatures although precip totals are normally a little less than Ann Arbor.

 

Some models have more snow in Jackson than AA.  Being in between mean you could be in that sweet spot OHweather mentioned.

[michsnowfreak]

Still nervous about rain/sleet, but also excited. Could be some insane snowfall rates!

[Owensnow]

4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Still nervous about rain/sleet, but also excited. Could be some insane snowfall rates!

Well, to be honest this is what NAM 12z thinks IMBY and I am Kingsville Ontario, just SE of you.



2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI  7A 03-MAR  -0.1     0.7    1014      93      21             552     541    
FRI  1P 03-MAR   1.8     2.8    1005      83      94    0.00     550     546    
FRI  7P 03-MAR   0.7    -2.3     990      97      98    1.00     541     550    
SAT  1A 04-MAR   0.5    -4.5     992      95      69    0.48     536     543    
SAT  7A 04-MAR   0.9    -4.4    1008      94      64    0.01     542     536    
SAT  1P 04-MAR   2.3    -2.0    1014      92      26    0.00     548     537    
SAT  7P 04-MAR   0.7    -1.0    1018      98      86    0.00     548     534    
SUN  1A 05-MAR   0.6    -3.5    1020      98      86    0.00     545     529

[SolidIcewx]

An observation note I see low level clouds are moving from east to west. Does that have anything to do with the strengthening low pressure system? I know it’s associated with it but the clouds are definitely flying west

[buckeye]

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Still nervous about rain/sleet, but also excited. Could be some insane snowfall rates!

Yea the potential for some crazy rates are what would have me pumped too.   Like to see some pics during the worst of it.   I have a son in law in med school at MSU.  He and my daughter live nw of Detroit, I'm sure I'll be getting some pics text to me today.   

[sbnwx85]

I could live with the 3k NAM.

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Yea the potential for some crazy rates are what would have me pumped too.   Like to see some pics during the worst of it.   I have a son in law in med school at MSU.  He and my daughter live nw of Detroit, I'm sure I'll be getting some pics text to me today.   

For as mild as the Winter has been overall, this will likely be the 3rd storm to come with damage. There were several tree limbs and a few wires down after the January 25th snowstorm, tons of destruction after the February 22nd ice storm, and I can't imagine there NOT being issues with the weight of this snow in the hardest hit areas today.

This is our 4th warning of the season 
Dec 22- Winter Storm Warning
Jan 25- Winter Storm Warning
Feb 22- Ice Storm Warning
Mar 3- Winter Storm Warning 

[SolidIcewx]

26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

For as mild as the Winter has been overall, this will likely be the 3rd storm to come with damage. There were several tree limbs and a few wires down after the January 25th snowstorm, tons of destruction after the February 22nd ice storm, and I can't imagine there NOT being issues with the weight of this snow in the hardest hit areas today.

This is our 4th warning of the season 
Dec 22- Winter Storm Warning
Jan 25- Winter Storm Warning
Feb 22- Ice Storm Warning
Mar 3- Winter Storm Warning 

I was thinking the same thing. I’m at work right now looking at trees and I see some weakend trees at the base or on the limbs. There is also what I call at my job a “Hazard tree” over in riverview. Has extreme lean over the lines and is slightly up rooted. I feel bad for the neighborhood I’m working in atm

[DAFF]

1 hour ago, Owensnow said:

So for us non informed weather weenies would I be right in saying this stays snow here?

 

 

12Z NAM for XHA (Harrow Ontario, Canada)

 

2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI  7A 03-MAR  -0.1     0.7    1014      93      21             552     541    
FRI  1P 03-MAR   1.8     2.8    1005      83      94    0.00     550     546    
FRI  7P 03-MAR   0.7    -2.3     990      97      98    1.00     541     550    
SAT  1A 04-MAR   0.5    -4.5     992      95      69    0.48     536     543    
SAT  7A 04-MAR   0.9    -4.4    1008      94      64    0.01     542     536    
SAT  1P 04-MAR   2.3    -2.0    1014      92      26    0.00     548     537    
SAT  7P 04-MAR   0.7    -1.0    1018      98      86    0.00     548     534    
SUN  1A 05-MAR   0.6    -3.5    1020      98      86    0.00     545     529

 

Leamington for me, during the winter.  On the Shores of Erie just a few doors before the entrance of Point pelee. 

 

 

[Stevo6899]

Gfs has has 3 str8 runs of a 17+ bullseye over my parents house in macomb, while other models have the banding just a little to the west. The gfs has been the most consistent with this so hoping it's right.

[Owensnow]

18 minutes ago, DAFF said:

Leamington for me, during the winter.  On the Shores of Erie just a few doors before the entrance of Point pelee. 

 

I see,

Not sure what we will get here, usually these scenarios are rain / sleet but the precip rates will be very high so who knows

 

Huge bust potential to our west with any changes at all

[sbnwx85]

Good, detailed update from IWX:

UPDATE... Issued at 1007 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 The forecast for this very complicated system remains on track at this time. The only change to headlines was to break-out the eastern extent of the advisory to better represent the expected snowfall there. Rain is moving into my southern counties as of this writing. Rain looks to be somewhat heavy, even at the onset, with visibilities below 3 miles being reported and radar estimated rates of 0.25-0.5"/hour. Farther north, dew point depressions vary but are generally small at 4-7 degrees. This bodes well for quick onset of precipitation there toward midday. Other observation notes include warming cloud tops locally, but reinvigorated convective elements over far southwest IN, indicating a strengthening section of this storm system there. Wind gusts over Central IN are already gusting to 35 knots which increases confidence on the wind forecast locally. Mesoscale models are showing a trend to the WSW with the swath of heavy snow, depicting a very tight gradient in snow amounts across locations such as Berrien and LaPorte Counties (i.e. little snow toward Lake MI. The eastern extent of our forecast still looks ok). A four-panel water vapor loop over the last several hours shows the overall storm system still lifting north, so I`m not sure that I want to chase that trend in the mesoscale models quite yet. Surface wet bulb temperatures advertised in the mid-and-upper 30s makes me nervous that rain may prevail longer than forecast, even in the north. However, forecast soundings continue to show a change over to snow as the atmospheric column cools in response to very heavy precipitation rates. Cross sections over the forecast area, perpendicular to the expected area of heavy snow, still show incredible lift via intense omega, mid-level frontogenesis, and instability aloft. With the anticipated low ratios, I still have my doubts on the highest values of our snow forecast, but these dynamics are no joke. Confidence is not high enough to make notable changes to the forecast. Regardless of final snow totals, the heavy snow rates will cause travel problems in a hurry, likely catching folks off guard.

[SolidIcewx]

33 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Gfs has has 3 str8 runs of a 17+ bullseye over my parents house in macomb, while other models have the banding just a little to the west. The gfs has been the most consistent with this so hoping it's right.

Gfs nailed the ice storm so we shall see if it’s 2 for 2 on the goofus

[RCNYILWX]

Temps and dew points are solid above the colder guidance. Looking problematic for any accums in our IL counties and even NW IN will probably underperform unless it absolutely rips this afternoon following changeover.

Strengthening east northeast flow may help bring in slightly lower dew points and help there, but especially IWX CWA. Up here in the metro, there's forecast to be strong lift in the DGZ, though strong subsidence and some drying in the lower levels northwest of the f-gen banding, per forecast soundings.

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[Baum]

1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Temps and dew points are solid above the colder guidance. Looking problematic for any accums in our IL counties and even NW IN will probably underperform unless it absolutely rips this afternoon following changeover.

Strengthening east northeast flow may help bring in slightly lower dew points and help there, but especially IWX CWA. Up here in the metro, there's forecast to be strong lift in the DGZ, though strong subsidence and some drying in the lower levels northwest of the f-gen banding, per forecast soundings.

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Courageous of you to give us our post mortem. As said by many, it is a pleasure to get your insights as we follow an event like this. Oh, what might have been. Still think another shot at a decent event lurks for this area this season.

[CIllinoisSnow]

Up to 39.2 degrees imby, not liking my snow chances 

[SchaumburgStormer]

25 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Temps and dew points are solid above the colder guidance. Looking problematic for any accums in our IL counties and even NW IN will probably underperform unless it absolutely rips this afternoon following changeover.

Strengthening east northeast flow may help bring in slightly lower dew points and help there, but especially IWX CWA. Up here in the metro, there's forecast to be strong lift in the DGZ, though strong subsidence and some drying in the lower levels northwest of the f-gen banding, per forecast soundings.

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The “every storm, model fucked up, should have tempered my expectations” letdown

[sbnwx85]

Several rain and snow mix reports on RadarScope in Kosciusko County. 

[weatherbo]

weather cam from my old hometown of Warsaw in Kosciusko County

See Warsaw: Dave's Winona Lake Webcam Live Webcam & Weather Report in Warsaw, Indiana, US | SeeCam

[Powerball]

Not sure what to think of the HRRR. It keeps showing a swath of heavy accumulating sleet, which the profiles aren't really supportive of that.

 

[MidwestChaser]

Advisory canceled. 

[Stebo]

16 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Not sure what to think of the HRRR. It keeps showing a swath of heavy accumulating sleet, which the profiles aren't really supportive of that.

 

You toss that, it isn't going to sleet. Not with these temp profiles. It will either be rain or snow or both.