Harry Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Heck even the euro ensembles have 1.25+ around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 5.5 inches final call here. BTW I'm really high, I just saw a flying pizza. Goodbye cruel winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: Still pretty big differences between gfs/Canadian/euro for dtw. Gfs/Canada is good. Euro/ukmet went nw on tonight's runs. Guess it's now cast time. I'd guess the bigger totals will be nw of detroit, although it's hard to go against the gfs as it's been more consistent than the euro 06z NAM and HRRR both came a bit SE, so there's that... EDIT: Also, the EURO and UKMET do seem to keep the ULL a bit deeper and closed off longer, which seems to result in a slightly healthier trowal (and is also why areas to the NW saw a bump in QPF and slightly warmer air impacts the Detroit area). But it just goes to show how extremely sensitive this setup is with the marginal thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Jackstraw said: 5.5 inches final call here. BTW I'm really high, I just saw a flying pizza. Goodbye cruel winter I am about there with you on the high front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Damn gfs another tick further se. Ughhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, Harry said: Damn gfs another tick further se. Ughhh. Track-wise, it looks to be the same as the 00z run... The only real difference is the surface low's several MBs weaker as it moves through MO/KY/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said: Edibles. Maybe because I seem to have a high immune system but those rarely do much for me? Now those damn pens or ( whatever they are called ) will put me on my ass. I was at a female friends house ( one who I liked ) and her dad, sister, brother ( First time I met them ) was over and the dad got me to try it. I about ran out of that house. I know my stupid mouth. I was fubared. They giggled thier ass off as I choked on it. Never again. Atleast not in that situation. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Truthfully I cannot blame grr with the 6+ amounts vs a set range. P&C has ten while county/zone has 6-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 It seems it's just the RAP and UKMET (lol) that are on the stronger/warmer/NW end amongst the models now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Also, FWIW, the 06z RGEM did finally come in a bit stronger/warmer/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Kind of chuckled at this from IWX... FXUS63 KIWX 030956 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 456 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 A couple caveats do exist with this storm system and there seems to be a higher than normal bust potential due to the continued existence of uncertainty in the guidance. In areas with snowfall, the snow will be the very wet variety with snow ratios of about 6:1 to 10:1, so this makes the removal of snow much harder to shovel. Also, due to the wet nature of the snowfall there will be much more compaction with this snow which can lead to misleading snow measurements as once the snow falls and a measurement is taken, the actual depth will be less than actual snow amounts that have fallen. So keep this in mind. Another issue is that with this forecast we have taken evaporational cooling into account to allow for snowfall and this will not remain constant through the event which will introduce the potential for rainfall mixing in at times once the lower levels moisten up later this afternoon. So as I said earlier that this is was a very difficult forecast. So I guess what I am saying is be gentle with us if this system does not exactly go according to plan. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 The point and click from TWC shows 5-8 today and tonight lol is it me or or these snow rates going to be Ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 overnight update: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 6:04 AM, A-L-E-K said: Miss south stank always go with your gut 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Still don’t know what the expect here in IKK. Within the last couple hours LOT cut the totals back for me and WGN (my dude skillling) bumped the totals up for me. 2-12 inches I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, King James said: Still don’t know what the expect here in IKK. Within the last couple hours LOT cut the totals back for me and WGN (my dude skillling) bumped the totals up for me. 2-12 inches I guess The bust potential is huge for many!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, Lightning said: The bust potential is huge for many!! Feel like I have the greatest BOOM potential as well. Skilling is pretty bullish and that slug of moisture looks A+. Just got to get it to change over and keep pushing north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 How many times has Detroit gotten 6”+ of snow on the same day Minneapolis has a high of 40 or above. There is no cold air to be found. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 pages of model discussion and not 1 screenshot of said models to visualize what is being discussed. This sub forum would be so much better if these were attached. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 24 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: always go with your gut i did. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 25 minutes ago, King James said: Still don’t know what the expect here in IKK. Within the last couple hours LOT cut the totals back for me and WGN (my dude skillling) bumped the totals up for me. 2-12 inches I guess Yeah, no idea. 0z models looked really good, but everything at 6z went east. HRRR and RAP are bleeding east with every run. Kinda stupid this close in. Has shades of Feb 2016, but shittier thermals. Think my final call is 0-6". We'll hope for the best of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, NYC10023 said: 2 pages of model discussion and not 1 screenshot of said models to visualize what is being discussed. This sub forum would be so much better if these were attached. because the time for posting models has passed. It's nowcast time pretty much. And frankly, if I see another model run after the last 5 days with this event I might wretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 HRRR has me down to like 4.5” on the Kuchera map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Go Hrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Yep I think I am done Rainer and maybe 2 inches of slush going NW so not too impressive for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Man… I’m starting to think we’re going to bust over this way. Every run, even the 06z Euro is bleeding east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Owensnow said: Yep I think I am done Rainer and maybe 2 inches of slush going NW so not too impressive for me I'll take the over on your 2" call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Man… I’m starting to think we’re going to bust over this way. Every run, even the 06z Euro is bleeding east. Josh got his lucky snow pile shovel magnet out and reeling this baby in. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 10 minutes ago, dmc76 said: I'll take the over on your 2" call Damnit why did you go and do that 850's are right on the line here. .99qpf of 1.5 is at risk of being all rain vs at YQG to my NW is 1.5ish with all +SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 6z Euro went east too. Waving the white flag on this one. Good luck to the peeps in Indiana and Michigan. Hope it over performs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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