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March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm


Hoosier
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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Cook County does have 3 zones, as does Will County. The evening shift opted to leave southern Cook out of the WSW, but did put in eastern Will.

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Ahhh. Good to know! Thanks! 

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38 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I expect DTX to go warning for their entire watch except Monroe. 

Interesting that EC and NWS have vastly different forecasts for Windsor-Detroit area. Windsor is heavy rain tomorrow with half an inch of rain or more changing to snow but only 2". No warning, just a special weather statement. The other side of the river is winter storm warning for 6-10"

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4 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Will be down around K-Zoo the Marshall tomorrow through the weekend visiting family. Quick peak at high res guidance looks like most hold off precap until later in the day after 4ish does this seem reasonable for the i94 corridor? 

4ish sounds about right.

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12 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

I must concede of course that this is going to be just another painfully close mess for the Chi-Town crew, but I hope it overproduces somewhere at least instead of bitching out at the last minute.

That is not the way. Project our bitterness and disappointment across borders. WHITE RAIN FOR ALL. 

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9 minutes ago, Harry said:

The se trend can cease now. :devilsmiley:

The January storm, the models had a bit of a SE trend within 24 but reality didn't follow suit as the strong storms tend to be a bit on the northern side of guidance.  But yeah I would also like to limit changes/trends at this point;)

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5 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

WSWarning issued for Michigan. Is it just me or has the information derived from the WSWarning's really gone down hill? When I was younger they went through a lot of the expected outcome in detail. This one just says "Snowfall greater than 6 inches possible". And thats basically it.

 

It's mainly this office I think. Plus they tend to go that route when it looks like the brunt of the storm is gonna miss Grand Rapids proper. There is one or two I have seen here and there that will go the full length regardless of where it hits. WDM was one of the best at it. Unfortunately he retired. 

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10 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

WSWarning issued for Michigan. Is it just me or has the information derived from the WSWarning's really gone down hill? When I was younger they went through a lot of the expected outcome in detail. This one just says "Snowfall greater than 6 inches possible". And thats basically it.

Ever since they switched to the standardized format and quit letting the forecasters include details about the system in the warnings they’ve been less informative. I think they should bring back a brief synopsis section. 

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I can’t wait to see how this plays out tomorrow. I would love to hear thundersnow for the first time. I hope media gets the word out about how impactful this could be because everyone has been super cautious with totals. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be caught off guard. 

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10 minutes ago, Harry said:

00z euro ftw! Incredible to see such totals this close in especially on that model! 1.75 here. 

Still pretty big differences between gfs/Canadian/euro for dtw. Gfs/Canada is good. Euro/ukmet went nw on tonight's runs. Guess it's now cast time. I'd guess the bigger totals will be nw of detroit, although it's hard to go against the gfs as it's been more consistent than the euro 

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5 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Still pretty big differences between gfs/Canadian/euro for dtw. Gfs/Canada is good. Euro/ukmet went nw on tonight's runs. Guess it's now cast time. I'd guess the bigger totals will be nw of detroit, although it's hard to go against the gfs as it's been more consistent than the euro 

 

If anyone over there had to worry it would be Josh but more so to the south. Kinda with Stebo on this. 

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15 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Still pretty big differences between gfs/Canadian/euro for dtw. Gfs/Canada is good. Euro/ukmet went nw on tonight's runs. Guess it's now cast time. I'd guess the bigger totals will be nw of detroit, although it's hard to go against the gfs as it's been more consistent than the euro 

Euro didn't go nw though it's just lower ratio on the south fringe of the band. The low was the same. The ukmet was so far south it wasn't surprising to move.

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All I can say in situations like this is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. You won't be as let down if it falters but will feel alot better if it goes right. 

I have been in a few of these and have seen it go both ways. 

Good luck to all. 

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56 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Euro didn't go nw though it's just lower ratio on the south fringe of the band. The low was the same. The ukmet was so far south it wasn't surprising to move.

 

Correct. Plus the higher qpf ended up over this way. Bound to change again on next run. Track now seems more stable on most models which is good for that area except maybe Monroe.. Downriver is always tricky. QPF is always a guessing game around these parts as well.

In the end we may all get to enjoy the death band across s.mi. jmho

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