TheRegionRat Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ya’ll are overusing the “lock of the week” meme. . I've been waiting for your patented, "south, weaker, drier" statement that deflates the mood..lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I've been waiting for your patented, "south, weaker, drier" statement that deflates the mood..lol...18z NAM will be SE, so there’s that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 24 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Or just underestimating the power of this storm itself. 977 MB at Hour 36 is pretty bonkers for this part of the country Not all 977mb lows are created equal, so that means nothing in isolation. See, for example, the Christmas eve storm which was nearly as strong but produced very underwhelmimg snowfall amounts for most. Temp profiles, storm track and location/residence/intensity of better lift/instability/moisture are the more relevant factors. That said, I'll eat crow if 12"+ amounts happen (not including any LES). I'd love for you all to get a big dog. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z NAM will be SE, so there’s that. . Did anyone seriously buy the NAM? Still time for the others to edge NW. Keeping hope alive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Sure the NAM may have shifted SE but it's still on a different plane of reality than the lame models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z NAM will be SE, so there’s that. . i'm okay with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Baum said: i'm okay with it. I was not okay when the ECMWF caved SE. Hoping for the NAM to verify is like pissing in the wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 :: rides the NAM into the sunset :: N IL will either suck cirrus or take it on the nose at this point... might as well go down with some hope. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, frostfern said: I was not okay when the ECMWF caved SE. Hoping for the NAM to verify is like pissing in the wind. Yes, with the wind blowing away from you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 best Model and this is the lower snow depth output. What a joke!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 18Z NAM( Not Always Michigan) model remains defiant 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, tuanis said: :: rides the NAM into the sunset :: N IL will either suck cirrus or take it on the nose at this point... might as well go down with some hope. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: lol Come on homie join the fun club, the correct response is "Final call >8 inches" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Cary67 said: 18Z NAM( Not Always Michigan) model remains defiant So what your saying is GFS = Good For Shit? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: lol Right. Clearly the NAM is onto something and will prove correct making the Euro, GFS, GEM,RGEM, ICON,JMA, NAVGEM and JMA all wrong. and 18z HRRR 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Harry said: So what your saying is GFS = Good For Shit? Nah, in all honesty hope you guys in SEMI receive a thumping. Would be a terrible waste of tracking for everyone to be shut out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Well it was nice while it lasted. What a winter of model chaos. *gets out violin* 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Cary67 said: Nah, in all honesty hope you guys in SEMI receive a thumping. Would be a terrible waste of tracking for everyone to be shut out I am more SW Michigan. But thanks! I still wouldn't rule anything out just yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 From the IWX powerpoint update at 3:00 PM: Edit to add IWX also hitting the potential of power outages hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 27 minutes ago, Powerball said: Not all 977mb lows are created equal, so that means nothing in isolation. See, for example, the Christmas eve storm which was nearly as strong but produced very underwhelmimg snowfall amounts for most. Temp profiles, storm track and location/residence/intensity of better lift/instability/moisture are the more relevant factors. That said, I'll eat crow if 12"+ amounts happen (not including any LES). I'd love for you all to get a big dog. Taking all bets for Powerball to eat a crow 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 You can always tell when something is on the horizon. GRR is late with their afternoon updates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, Harry said: I am more SW Michigan. But thanks! I still wouldn't rule anything out just yet. SW MI folks are usually allied with N IL folks. Except for the weird zonal track systems. My hope is the system is a bit less thread-the-needle than modelled QPF. There usually is more than one weenie band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: lol Take it to the bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Take it to the bank Miss south stank? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 3km is ridiculous. Looping the 1-hour 10:1 snow maps, it has 3.9” here for one frame. I mean I’d love to see it, but not planning to move to a LES belt yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Feel like there should be a severe weather thread for this sub-forum for this event too. OV into TN looks potentially nasty tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, frostfern said: SW MI folks are usually allied with N IL folks. Except for the weird zonal track systems. It can depend. Jan 67 is best example of sharing in the glory. Jan 78 was more here. GHDI was more there to Grand Rapids. GHDII was a bit more here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, frostfern said: Miss south stank? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, Harry said: It can depend. Jan 67 is best example of sharing in the glory. Jan 78 was more here. GHDI was more there to Grand Rapids. GHDII was a bit more here. Jan 1979? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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