March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm

[CANNOTDIVIDEBY0]

Is it me, or have the models been absolute trash this year?

[SchaumburgStormer]

11 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Seriously would be less embarrassing getting busted surfing midget porn verses having to explain 10,000 weather board posts.

Weather models, torture for those to poor to hire a dominatrix. 

[Powerball]

58 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

I think Alek is right. We may be transitioning to more of a central IL/St. Louis winter climo. The events become more marginal temp wise in nature,with more thread the needle set ups, and increasingly narrow windows of winter like weather. Over the last few years what's amazing is DTW's knack to cash in on whatever meager opportunities present themselves. The UP and MSP benefit in not on increasing temps but increasing moisture as winter retreats northward

DTW may suck when it comes to reeling in the big dogs, but it always manages to score somehow with the mediocre / run-of-the-mill snow events better than most in the midwest.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

Where’s the Russian model when we need it

Sanctioned. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Cary67 said:

I think Alek is right. We may be transitioning to more of a central IL/St. Louis winter climo. The events become more marginal temp wise in nature,with more thread the needle set ups, and increasingly narrow windows of winter like weather. Over the last few years what's amazing is DTW's knack to cash in on whatever meager opportunities present themselves. The UP and MSP benefit in not on increasing temps but increasing moisture as winter retreats northward

The last few winters have been fine. Only this Winter has been crap. I would not call the winters of 2020-21 and 2021-22 ones with few meager opportunities. Hell, snow depths in February 2021 were 15" in Detroit, 18" in Toledo, and 21" in Chicago. 

[michaelmantis]

Since we're all a bit jaded with the models... 

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, buckeye said:

It's gonna be hell for @michsnowfreak as they transition to CMH climo      OTOH I'm looking forward to Nashville climo setting in here .

Btw, I admit I'm jel over whomever gets the 6 hr thumping the models seem to be throwing out there, strictly because I like extreme snowfall rates.   But I'm only jel of that window of time.  Other than that you can keep the 40s and slop fest following the thump.   

 

No worries. Because because I'm not transitioning to a CMH climate. Lmao Detroit literally just had their snowiest decade on record in the 2010s. I do not go off the deep end because of one lousy Winter

[RCNYILWX]

Just sent an AFD update. Basically, it's hard to say we'll be 80% confident in warning snow amounts/impacts anywhere in the CWA. Assuming the NAMs are too far NW, general idea is southeast of I-55, *if* the banding is intense enough for dynamic cooling to overcome the marginal BL. Throw convection into the mix and the fact that we're basically trying to precisely place a mesoscale feature (response to f-gen circulation) and say we're confident the dynamic cooling will be enough, it's a tough call.

Even with the GFS, we're talking pretty high end impacts for the populous south suburbs, Kankakee county, and NW Indiana corridor. But the Canadians (not that they're great models) have me concerned and getting vibes of the Christmas Eve 2014 bust. If the GFS is right, that's a similar look to what happened on 2/24/16. And again, there's error bars on the exact placement of banding northwest of the compact vertically stacked low.

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[Chicago WX]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The last few winters have been fine. Only this Winter has been crap. I would not call the winters of 2020-21 and 2021-22 ones with few meager opportunities. Hell, snow depths in February 2021 were 15" in Detroit, 18" in Toledo, and 21" in Chicago. 

Feb 14-16, 2021 had the storm start off snowing with temps below zero. Marginal my ass. But recency bias always prevails around here. 

[Chicago WX]

5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Just sent an AFD update. Basically, it's hard to say we'll be 80% confident in warning snow amounts/impacts anywhere in the CWA. Assuming the NAMs are too far NW, general idea is southeast of I-55, *if* the banding is intense enough for dynamic cooling to overcome the marginal BL. Throw convection into the mix and the fact that we're basically trying to precisely place a mesoscale feature (response to f-gen circulation) and say we're confident the dynamic cooling will be enough, it's a tough call.

Even with the GFS, we're talking pretty high end impacts for the populous south suburbs, Kankakee county, and NW Indiana corridor. But the Canadians (not that they're great models) have me concerned and getting vibes of the Christmas Eve 2014 bust. If the GFS is right, that's a similar look to what happened on 2/24/16. And again, there's error bars on the exact placement of banding northwest of the compact vertically stacked low.

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Good luck. We’re all counting on you. 

Still no idea what to expect here. Truly.

[Baum]

memories of a march storm in the 1990's comes to mind. Call was for 1-2" on grassy areas. By mid day parachutes were falling with thunder and got about 6-8" in several hours. One of my favorite busts. Has all the earmarks. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

22 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Just sent an AFD update. Basically, it's hard to say we'll be 80% confident in warning snow amounts/impacts anywhere in the CWA. Assuming the NAMs are too far NW, general idea is southeast of I-55, *if* the banding is intense enough for dynamic cooling to overcome the marginal BL. Throw convection into the mix and the fact that we're basically trying to precisely place a mesoscale feature (response to f-gen circulation) and say we're confident the dynamic cooling will be enough, it's a tough call.

Even with the GFS, we're talking pretty high end impacts for the populous south suburbs, Kankakee county, and NW Indiana corridor. But the Canadians (not that they're great models) have me concerned and getting vibes of the Christmas Eve 2014 bust. If the GFS is right, that's a similar look to what happened on 2/24/16. And again, there's error bars on the exact placement of banding northwest of the compact vertically stacked low.

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"We`ll see if the
ECMWF suite rolling out around the top of the hour can help bring
some clarity"

Narrator Voice: "It did not." 

[Lightning]

5 minutes ago, Baum said:

memories of a march storm in the 1990's comes to mind. Call was for 1-2" on grassy areas. By mid day parachutes were falling with thunder and got about 6-8" in several hours. One of my favorite busts. Has all the earmarks. 

Those are the best busts!! 

[Powerball]

3 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Those are the best busts!! 

Which is why the Lions/Eagles Snow Bowl in 2013 is perhaps my favorite Football game ever.

[ILSNOW]

good luck to folks south and east of here enjoy !!!!

[Snowstorms]

29 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The last few winters have been fine. Only this Winter has been crap. I would not call the winters of 2020-21 and 2021-22 ones with few meager opportunities. Hell, snow depths in February 2021 were 15" in Detroit, 18" in Toledo, and 21" in Chicago. 

I think what he's saying is that; lately it feels a lot of the storms we've been seeing are marginal, at best. Yes sure Feb 2021 had impressive snow depths and a 2-week cold shot, but it was an incredibly warm winter outside of those few weeks. Ironically it came after another warm winter (19-20). And now obviously 2022-23 is warm too. Thats 3 in the last 4 years. If this trend continues towards a shift of warmer winters, we may start seeing more marginal scenarios or even worse (rain). And that's what we seem to be seeing with this storm and many others this winter. 

[King James]

8 minutes ago, Baum said:

memories of a march storm in the 1990's comes to mind. Call was for 1-2" on grassy areas. By mid day parachutes were falling with thunder and got about 6-8" in several hours. One of my favorite busts. Has all the earmarks. 

March 8th 1998? One of my favorite storms of all time. Went to bed with no snow, woke up with cement plastered everywhere. Was quite a sight and a lot of fun to play in 

[Baum]

post 12Z model update:

 

[AWMT30]

Could this finally be the one where DTW sees over 12" its been a minute... 

[sbnwx85]

Whoever is underneath that heaviest banding is going to see wild conditions for a couple hours. Too bad this storm is moving so quickly. 

[Malacka11]

1 minute ago, Baum said:

post 12Z model update:

 

Glad you're still with me <3

[WestMichigan]

I was hoping for a 977 low to cut a little more than this does.  Oh well, looks like congrats Ann Arbor and Detroit is in order.

[Stevo6899]

2 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I was hoping for a 977 low to cut a little more than this does.  Oh well, looks like congrats Ann Arbor and Detroit is in order.

The nao block is saving us from another Rainer. This will be the second 6+ storm winter, and both look to have some of the best rates this area will ever see. Odd winter

[Chicago WX]

20 minutes ago, Baum said:

memories of a march storm in the 1990's comes to mind. Call was for 1-2" on grassy areas. By mid day parachutes were falling with thunder and got about 6-8" in several hours. One of my favorite busts. Has all the earmarks. 

 

10 minutes ago, King James said:

March 8th 1998? One of my favorite storms of all time. Went to bed with no snow, woke up with cement plastered everywhere. Was quite a sight and a lot of fun to play in 

Yeah. March 1998. Lightning and thunder and all of it with that storm. You can read the AFD and forecast on the Iowa State site from that storm. Positive bust indeed.

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

The last few winters have been fine. Only this Winter has been crap. I would not call the winters of 2020-21 and 2021-22 ones with few meager opportunities. Hell, snow depths in February 2021 were 15" in Detroit, 18" in Toledo, and 21" in Chicago. 

Definitely not arguing that it was a prolific Feb. in that ORD to DTW corridor. Again that corridor benefitted from some systems(one in particular) whose  track not too dissimilar to the current one. Those snow amts and depths in the loop were aided by LES and pts just NW up through Madison were way below normal last year. I guess unless Decembers make a come back I think you've been fortunate to rely on February or March's to make up the gap. It's happened in your area but as this year showed Feb didn't bail you out. Just wonder in the long run if Decembers stay in the crapper and if the durations of cold air are less frequent how long does that run for DTW hold on?

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I think what he's saying is that; lately it feels a lot of the storms we've been seeing are marginal, at best. Yes sure Feb 2021 had impressive snow depths and a 2-week cold shot, but it was an incredibly warm winter outside of those few weeks. Ironically it came after another warm winter (19-20). And now obviously 2022-23 is warm too. Thats 3 in the last 4 years. If this trend continues towards a shift of warmer winters, we may start seeing more marginal scenarios or even worse (rain). And that's what we seem to be seeing with this storm and many others this winter. 

2020-21 was not a very mild Winter here at all. Even in the mild Winters the past decade we've had some good cold storms. There's just been a lot of bad luck this year. Hell, even we all had an extremely cold snow fall in December this year. But sorry, it's absolutely ridiculous to say DTW will become the new CMH. Even if our Winters magically warmed 4 degrees, We are surrounded by the Great Lakes which Columbus is not. I mean climate change is real but the way one mild Winter with subpar snow jades people is really over the top.
Dtw temp departures last 10 winters
2022-23: +5.0
2021-22: -0.4
2020-21: +0.3
2019-20: +4.2
2018-19: +0.5
2017-18: -1.1
2016-17: +4.5
2015-16: +5.1
2014-15: -5.1
2013-14: -7.5

[michsnowfreak]

10 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Definitely not arguing that it was a prolific Feb. in that ORD to DTW corridor. Again that corridor benefitted from some systems(one in particular) whose  track not too dissimilar to the current one. Those snow amts and depths in the loop were aided by LES and pts just NW up through Madison were way below normal last year. I guess unless Decembers make a come back I think you've been fortunate to rely on February or March's to make up the gap. It's happened in your area but as this year showed Feb didn't bail you out. Just wonder in the long run if Decembers stay in the crapper and if the durations of cold air are less frequent how long does that run for DTW hold on?

I'm telling you, don't let a mild Winter jade you so much. The stretch of sub par Decembers and Snowy Februaries are more than likely an unusual coincidence. After all, the region has seen an unusual number of early and late snowfalls in recent years as well. Chicago had a white Halloween a few years ago and Detroit had a white Mother's Day a few years ago. Also, days with snow on the ground has shown no longterm decrease. We can continue the conversation in PM if you'd like, but i don't want to derail this storm thread

[Baum]

13 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Glad you're still with me <3

As long as that band is modeled within 50-100 miles,esp SE, I refuse to bail. Way too many times seen those LP's  coming up like that pull  NW or throw moisture further back than modeled. Prepared to go down with the ship, as they say. It's not all models, to me. Climo and history play a part as well. Suspect the NAM will cave southeast as well here soon. But until I see the whites of it's eyes on  radar presentation tommorow morning going to have stay the course. 

[Malacka11]

3 minutes ago, Baum said:

As long as that band is modeled within 50-100 miles,esp SE, I refuse to bail. Way too many times seen those LP's  coming up like that pull  NW or throw moisture further back than modeled. Prepared to go down with the ship, as they say. It's not all models, to me. Climo and history play a part as well. Suspect the NAM will cave southeast as well here soon. But until I see the whites of it's eyes on  radar presentation tommorow morning going to have stay the course. 

That's where I am too, albeit off of much less experience. The models aren't even weakening the low, it's just moving farther SE anyway. IIRC RC explained days ago how aspects of this setup could lend themselves to that occuring but the wiener in me won't back off. Odds are this really will be the last shot of the year that gets to this range at all so might as well give it the old college try. 

[sbnwx85]

Sorry to say for the Chicago crew, but I'm stealing this one.