Cary67 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sciascia said: That 20% working hard. It will be a spectacle to see the band shift SE to Danville inside 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 12z NAM apparently didnt get the message. Why is this model even around any more. We are within 24 hrs of a potential storm and most models have no precip in the Chicago area and this model has a 13 inches . It should be replaced by a dart board. At 18z is will go from 13 inches to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Though I do agree nam is on some drugs, I'm not sure I buy the extreme se hrrr/rap. It literally doesn't even get rain that north. Not sure precip shield will be that shunted south. Though hrrr/rap do have sfc low track pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Perhaps when RC pops online, he can give his thoughts. When should we start radar watching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 nam is clown obv but even the gefs/eps at d2-3 are going to perform quite poor assuming southern solutions work out as appears likely at the moment 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Good thing my employer doesn't know how many hours of productivity I have lost over the past several seasons tracking phantom storms. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I keep coming back to a line from the TV show "The West Wing" where the President says "'You don't live longer, it just seems longer" and I wonder if these model quirks are really the result of having more data (even if it is bad data) available or if it just *seems like* we have more data and thus give the models more credit than they deserve. A broken clock is right twice a day and the NAM is going to be spot on occasionally. The extended forecast period (as I believe) used to by 5 days, then 7, now 10 days. Technology got better and our ability to see things earlier helped forecasting. But these 24-36 hour model swings are really where it baffles me. Yes I get that 100 miles of a storm track forecasted a week in advance is damn good, but that same shift in 24 hours causes a lot of disruption, extra costs of time/money/people, etc. Someone posted last night the NWS putting out a forecast with "snow ranging from 2 to 10 inches" (and I loved @RCNYILWX reply) and right now this winter has proven to me that the models even are struggling with a 24 hour Nowcast of some of these events and I just wait until the day-of to adjust activities due to potential weather. If I was the NWS I am not sure what I'd do. They *have* data, they *have* models, they are not just making up or wishcasting. But how does the 3 PM shift write the AFD (and send the public messaging) when I'm sure many times they know/feel the 3 AM update is going to flip flop potentially with a huge model change? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said: It was near record warm yesterday (Indy did set a record) and model shenanigans be damned I want no part of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 This is one of the craziest storms I’ve followed in a while. I went from thinking this thing was definitely going west of me less than 24 hours ago and now I’m concerned it could end up east. That 2” first call is definitely still on the table 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 13 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: I keep coming back to a line from the TV show "The West Wing" where the President says "'You don't live longer, it just seems longer" and I wonder if these model quirks are really the result of having more data (even if it is bad data) available or if it just *seems like* we have more data and thus give the models more credit than they deserve. A broken clock is right twice a day and the NAM is going to be spot on occasionally. The extended forecast period (as I believe) used to by 5 days, then 7, now 10 days. Technology got better and our ability to see things earlier helped forecasting. But these 24-36 hour model swings are really where it baffles me. Yes I get that 100 miles of a storm track forecasted a week in advance is damn good, but that same shift in 24 hours causes a lot of disruption, extra costs of time/money/people, etc. Someone posted last night the NWS putting out a forecast with "snow ranging from 2 to 10 inches" (and I loved @RCNYILWX reply) and right now this winter has proven to me that the models even are struggling with a 24 hour Nowcast of some of these events and I just wait until the day-of to adjust activities due to potential weather. If I was the NWS I am not sure what I'd do. They *have* data, they *have* models, they are not just making up or wishcasting. But how does the 3 PM shift write the AFD (and send the public messaging) when I'm sure many times they know/feel the 3 AM update is going to flip flop potentially with a huge model change? The 24-36hr massive shifts also create public distrust with forecasters, which could get someone in trouble down the line when an actual “Big Dog” is set to happen & they don’t believe it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 29 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Good thing my employer doesn't know how many hours of productivity I have lost over the past several seasons tracking phantom storms. My employer can tell when a storm may be coming because they notice a drop-off in productivity, time responses to emails and how quickly I actually read them. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Having totally accurate models 3 or even 5 days out would be great; however; a weather board like this would become boring. Part of what make the weather the fun to me is all the unknowns, clown maps, disappointments and triumphs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 11 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: My employer can tell when a storm may be coming because they notice a drop-off in productivity, time responses to emails and how quickly I actually read them. Which is what's great about WFH. As long as I get the job done, my boss fortunately couldn't care less about "idle" hours, lol... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Powerball said: Which is what's great about WFH. As long as I get the job done, my boss fortunately couldn't care less about "idle" hours, lol... Its always great when you got those kind of bosses. I don't think i could do the wfm. I can only be productive in an office setting. Its weird....Yea my boss is pretty chill and just makes fun of me is all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Gosh, I feel for y'all, looks like mode spread 3-5 days out, not 24-48 hours out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 GFS is further SE with its’ snow amounts. It resembles the EURO now. So it’s the globals vs. North America. World War III: Weather Edition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 This is as “thread the needle” as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 O.5" call may bust high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 IWX mentioning near blizzard conditions and power outages in their morning watch update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Official forecast - "Snow, heavy at times. Somewhere between Chicago and Louisville" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Is it even worth it if your positive depth change is <4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: Is it even worth it if your positive depth change is <4"? Lol fair but I think if 3” per hour rates are actually realized someone will end up with big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 20 minutes ago, Sciascia said: GFS is further SE with its’ snow amounts. It resembles the EURO now. So it’s the globals vs. North America. World War III: Weather Edition Where’s the Russian model when we need it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: IWX mentioning near blizzard conditions and power outages in their morning watch update Blizzard conditions with heavy wet snow? I can’t imagine much blowing around from an accumulating stand point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I think Alek is right. We may be transitioning to more of a central IL/St. Louis winter climo. The events become more marginal temp wise in nature,with more thread the needle set ups, and increasingly narrow windows of winter like weather. Over the last few years what's amazing is DTW's knack to cash in on whatever meager opportunities present themselves. The UP and MSP benefit in not on increasing temps but increasing moisture as winter retreats northward 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, Cary67 said: I think Alek is right. We may be transitioning to more of a central IL/St. Louis winter climo. The events become more marginal temp wise in nature,with more thread the needle set ups, and increasingly narrow windows of winter like weather. Over the last few years what's amazing is DTW's knack to cash in on whatever meager opportunities present themselves. The UP and MSP benefit in not on increasing temps but increasing moisture as winter retreats northward It's gonna be hell for @michsnowfreak as they transition to CMH climo OTOH I'm looking forward to Nashville climo setting in here . Btw, I admit I'm jel over whomever gets the 6 hr thumping the models seem to be throwing out there, strictly because I like extreme snowfall rates. But I'm only jel of that window of time. Other than that you can keep the 40s and slop fest following the thump. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 19 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Blizzard conditions with heavy wet snow? I can’t imagine much blowing around from an accumulating stand point With possible three inches an hour rates, the 30 to 40 mph winds will definitely make it look near zero visibility 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Good thing my employer doesn't know how many hours of productivity I have lost over the past several seasons tracking phantom storms. What's your name and employer -- I can help him out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Good thing my employer doesn't know how many hours of productivity I have lost over the past several seasons tracking phantom storms. Seriously would be less embarrassing getting busted surfing midget porn verses having to explain 10,000 weather board posts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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