Baum Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Been busy. Just took a quick gander at the GFS and think that's the way to go on this one. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 13 hours ago, Hoosier said: Well, we've seen some outlandish model solutions for this one at times. Obviously still plenty of uncertainty but there's enough of a signal for an impactful event. At this time, it appears the southern half or so of the subforum is more favored, but we'll see how this trends in the coming days. Someone in MO will cash out with this one. Excited to see how this evolves on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Man, we sure are hungry for model abuse in here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just keep the posts coming please don't let this be a dry thread on the off chance that it does work out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, Baum said: Been busy. Just took a quick gander at the GFS and think that's the way to go on this one. I was hoping you'd be on top of things and started the thread before hoosierdaddy. Still ridin high from the Jan 25 storm thread. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: I was hoping you'd be on top of things and started the thread before hoosierdaddy. Still ridin high from the Jan 25 storm thread. I normally don't bite on thread starting until the JMA comes on board. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Euro going to bump north at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Euro hammers Detroit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 The models are really trolling y'all hard with these weenie runs that will inevitably not even come close to fruition... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 It is not surprising that there has been a shift north, the system moving off the coast is quicker to move away and this system is slower, thus removing the confluence that would help keep the system moving more easterly and keeping the track south. I know it sounds crazy but I would be worried here that this keeps shifting north more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, Powerball said: The models are really trolling y'all hard with these weenie runs that will inevitably not even come close to fruition... I'd rather get trolled than be a pessimist 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 12Z GEFS a bit SE of operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 46 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Man, we sure are hungry for model abuse in here. Was thinking the same thing. I’ll quietly watch till it’s closer lol. Was not expecting this ngl 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, Cary67 said: 12Z GEFS a bit SE of operational Most of the individual members are north of that mean tho, its just got a couple of far east members pulling the mean east/flatter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 20 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: I'd rather get trolled than be a pessimist Call it what you want. But the current output would be a once in a 50-year event (and that's being generous, I mean how often do we see a widespred 12"+ blizzard along the STL-IND-DTW corridor?) And that's not accounting for the usual shenanigans the models have been pulling with over-amping these storms in the medium range. That said, it will probably end up being a decent run-of-the-mill storm (6-10" with some blowing/drifitng) for parts of the subforum when all said and done. And given the winter you all have had, it could be far worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 47 minutes ago, Baum said: I normally don't bite on thread starting until the JMA comes on board. Ahh yea makes sense. Jma peeps alot more intelligent than the euros/gfs's. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: Call it what you want. But the current output would be a once in a 50-year event (and that's being generous, I mean how often do we see a widespred 12"+ blizzard along the STL-IND-DTW corridor?) And that's not accounting for the typical shenanigans the models have been pulling with over-amping these storms in the medium range. That said, it will probably end up being a decent run-of-the-mill storm (6-10" with some blowing/drifitng) for parts of the subforum when all said and done. And given the winter you've all had, it could be far worse. Just being realistic and I get it, being numb to it all after years of disappointment in metro detroit regarding big dogs. But things can change quickly and maybe this is the one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 4 hours ago, Chicago WX said: Non-event for here. At least it won't be another rainer. GFS/GEFS versus the world. We know how that goes. Though, 6z EPS bumped north, but the same head fake happened with yesterdays 18z run too. Northern goal posts are probably a STL to IND on northeast line for something measurable, but smart money is further south. Looks good for the Ohio crew ultimately. Nicely done, voodoo reverse psychology on the models and us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Just now, Powerball said: Call it what you want. But the current output would be a once in a 50-year event (and that's being generous, I mean how often do we see a widespred 12"+ blizzard along the STL-IND-DTW corridor?) And that's not accounting for the typical shenanigans the models have been pulling with over-amping these storms in the medium range. That said, it will probably end up being a decent run-of-the-mill storm (6-10" with some blowing/drifitng) for parts of the subforum when all said and done. And given the winter you've all had, it could be far worse. I'm not saying that there's gonna be a mega dog or something, I'm just that even if I know that virtually every storm pulls the same shit, I let myself get a little hyped. Imagine if like GHD1 happens again in a few years and the whole lead-up to it I refuse to buy in and get excited only for it to actually happen. I'd kick myself in the nuts. Acting like a giddy child because it just might snow a lot is the whole name of my game regardless of the chances. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Whatever the models are showing knock 30-40% off the qpf. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Malacka11 said: I'm not saying that there's gonna be a mega dog or something, I'm just that even if I know that virtually every storm pulls the same shit, I let myself get a little hyped. Imagine if like GHD1 happens again in a few years and the whole lead-up to it I refuse to buy in and get excited only for it to actually happen. I'd kick myself in the nuts. Acting like a giddy child because it just might snow a lot is the whole name of my game regardless of the chances. Tbh nowadays you should just get excited thats theres a respectable storm in the area and be smart enough to know things and will waffle even 6 hours before the event. Its a very tough hobby to keep emotions in check though so easier said than done for some. I guess being a lions fan helps with this hobby. Keep expectations low until it's pouring snow out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 12z EPS north. Mean total QPF of 1.00" makes it close to IKK. Hmmm Lots of sub 980 lows in there. The 957 just to the west of LAF though… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 And here I thought we were gonna be in a lull for a couple weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Powerball said: Call it what you want. But the current output would be a once in a 50-year event (and that's being generous, I mean how often do we see a widespred 12"+ blizzard along the STL-IND-DTW corridor?) And that's not accounting for the usual shenanigans the models have been pulling with over-amping these storms in the medium range. That said, it will probably end up being a decent run-of-the-mill storm (6-10" with some blowing/drifitng) for parts of the subforum when all said and done. And given the winter you all have had, it could be far worse. 6-10" for that zone would be the biggest storm for most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 These are all for entertainment purposes of course, but individual GEFS total snow accumulations. Good number of big dogs in various locales. #16 is my pick to click. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 3 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: Hell, I'll prob upgrade to an A if we get a big dog. Just booked a flight home so its officially on. I didn't think the gfs would go anymore nw due to the other models being so different. Can't trust any of them so its a toss up. Maybe the more advanced Mets can chime in if phasing is involved with this? Since your grade is mostly on storms, if we get this your grade would absolutely be higher than a pure winter enthusiast's grade. We've already had 2 good winter storms (Jan 25 snow, Feb 22 Ice) and a White Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 This winter is a C rn. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Chicago WX said: These are all for entertainment purposes of course, but individual GEFS total snow accumulations. Good number of big dogs in various locales. #16 is my pick to click. Agree #16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 We really about to repeat spring 2013 aren’t we? Gag me with a spoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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