March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm

[WestMichigan]

18Z NAM and RDPS paint two completely different pictures.  One snowy and north the other weak and south.  Split the difference and halve the NAM QPF is my guess right now.

[Stevo6899]

3 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

18Z NAM and RDPS paint two completely different pictures.  One snowy and north the other weak and south.  Split the difference and halve the NAM QPF is my guess right now.

Uncle ukie is a good blend, and is further nw than its previous runs. Still don't know what to think for dtw. Hard to go against the euro. Gfs/Canadian 8+ dtw, euro mostly rain.

[Jonger]

Jeez, DTW is going with far north solutions. The HRRR is way south of the area....and the GFS is too.

[SolidIcewx]

Since we are talking ratings I give this winter a 82.5% out of a 100. That ice storm and the storm in January did it for the sheer photogenic purposes was very beautiful yet destructive like tornadoes. Also since I work outside the mild weather is a bonus even tho I love my snow cover

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Since we are talking ratings I give this winter a 82.5% out of a 100. That ice storm and the storm in January did it for the sheer photogenic purposes was very beautiful yet destructive like tornadoes. Also since I work outside the mild weather is a bonus even tho I love my snow cover

Wow. That's definitely higher than my grade would be. Although, the photogenic nature of the January 22nd and January 25th snowstorms, the February 22nd ice storm, & a postcard White Christmas, it's definitely not in the dire straits some others on here appear to be.

[WestMichigan]

I am torn, we have a shot at a top 15 winter for total snowfall but the snowcover has been abysmal.  Some impressive storms but absolutely no staying power this winter.  Probably a B/B- since we will probably end up with 90+ this season after the last snow flake falls sometime later in March/April.

[Harry]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Wow. That's definitely higher than my grade would be. Although, the photogenic nature of the January 22nd and January 25th snowstorms, the February 22nd ice storm, & a postcard White Christmas, it's definitely not in the dire straits some others on here appear to be.

 

My biggest issue was the relentless cloudy, drizzle, upper 30s/low 40s days and even nightd. Had they been more like yesterday and especially today my grade would be a bit higher. What pushes my grade higher then most was the White Christmas and the Nov Les event which dropped 21+ here. The ice I never lost power ( unlike many others around here ) so I got to enjoy the beauty of it which scores a few brownie points.  Still a bit to consider so no grade yet. 

[ILSNOW]

Chicago NWS snippet

Forecast soundings have continued to show that a rain and snow would
be the dominant precipitation types with a sharp gradient separating
the two p-types across the area. Recent trends have stared to hint
at the idea that areas north and west of I-55 would be the most
favored for snow and potentially heavy snow as the aforementioned
enhanced forcing interacts with it. Given that surface temperatures
are forecast to be around freezing the snow would likely be a wet
snow with ratios on the order of 8:1 to 9:1. While it is still too
soon to narrow down the exact location of where this heavy snow band
would set up it is looking like areas under this band could see
accumulations in excess of 3 inches which would lead to hazardous
travel conditions during the day on Friday, but especially during
the afternoon hours.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Still have 6-7 weeks of realistic time left on the clock this winter. 

[sbnwx85]

18z GFS Kuchera

Snow depth change:

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

My biggest issue was the relentless cloudy, drizzle, upper 30s/low 40s days and even nightd. Had they been more like yesterday and especially today my grade would be a bit higher. What pushes my grade higher then most was the White Christmas and the Nov Les event which dropped 21+ here. The ice I never lost power ( unlike many others around here ) so I got to enjoy the beauty of it which scores a few brownie points.  Still a bit to consider so no grade yet. 

Oh yes it's definitely too early to give a grade. With the colder look heading in to March you have to like the chances that something is going to pop.

Speaking of cold, regardless of which model wins this circus of solution For Friday, there really does not seem to be much cold air with it so I'm not feeling this one or thinking it's gonna be a January 25th redux.

[Harry]

Think I need to change my shorts after viewing the 18z gfs. Certain it's overdone but still with this site set at 10-1 ratios near 15 is always nice to see. 

3 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Oh yes it's definitely too early to give a grade. With the colder look heading in to March you have to like the chances that something is going to pop.

Speaking of cold, regardless of which model wins this circus of solution For Friday, there really does not seem to be much cold air with it so I'm not feeling this one or thinking it's gonna be a January 25th redux.

 

Yeah Friday is looking like one of those heavy wet snows around here which while they are scenic could be a problem here especially with the wind and saturated soils that's not good for the trees. 

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

18z GFS Kuchera

Snow depth change:

 

Wonder what they are using? Was near certain the one I use is set at 10-1? Maybe not? 

[frostfern]

27 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I am torn, we have a shot at a top 15 winter for total snowfall but the snowcover has been abysmal.  Some impressive storms but absolutely no staying power this winter.  Probably a B/B- since we will probably end up with 90+ this season after the last snow flake falls sometime later in March/April.

Kind of the classic theoretical La Niña winter now in February.  Very active polar jet with lots of storm opportunities, but also lots of northwest cutters.  January was kind of counter to this though with that unending Pacific hose -> boring weather east of Rockies pattern.

[WestMichigan]

RAP looks more like the NAM than the GFS.

[Malacka11]

The GEFS looks even better than 12z..

[ILSNOW]

2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

The GEFS looks even better than 12z..

yes the mean  remains NW of the op run 

[frostfern]

Time for Me and Alek to get the old snow magnet out.  Same line with this orientation.

[Chicago WX]

10 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

RAP looks more like the NAM than the GFS.

RAP is always amped way northwest at this range. Same with the HRRR usually. Wouldn’t put any trust in it until like 12 hours out. Just my opinion of course.

[Stebo]

3 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

With all due respect, describing it that way makes it seem like there's a predetermined outcome. If your take is that the snow swath will end up south of what the 12z Euro op is showing, that's fine. There's no such thing as a model moving toward a consensus. Plus, the GEFS mean is solidly north of the GFS. And the amount of spread in the solutions means there isn't a consensus anyway.

 

When I say consensus I mean more models having that solution, they could very well be all wrong too. I am not saying that as a predetermined outcome... Plus I have made it pretty apparent in previous posts that I don't know what is going to happen but I am leaning more towards the southern solution set.

[sbnwx85]

12 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

RAP looks more like the NAM than the GFS.

[wegoweather]

20" Big Dog plume for ORD

  

[Baum]

[Stebo]

Of course as soon as I say I like the southern solutions the GFS/GEFS move north, because why the hell not.

[RCNYILWX]

When I say consensus I mean more models having that solution, they could very well be all wrong too. I am not saying that as a predetermined outcome... Plus I have made it pretty apparent in previous posts that I don't know what is going to happen but I am leaning more towards the southern solution set.

Honestly I had a feeling that was the case, but the reason I replied was for the benefit of anyone on here trying to learn from red taggers. All good.

As for my take, I prefer the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS, and the NAM also happens to be in that camp. The Euro is usually pretty good this close in and it's a red flag to me that the GEFS mean is again north of the operational and even slightly farther north than 12z. I'm speculating that the GFS may be struggling with convective parameterization. Definitely can't rule out the more southern camp though.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[Stebo]

Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Honestly I had a feeling that was the case, but the reason I replied was for the benefit of anyone on here trying to learn from red taggers. All good.

As for my take, I prefer the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS, and the NAM also happens to be in that camp. The Euro is usually pretty good this close in and it's a red flag to me that the GEFS mean is again north of the operational and even slightly farther north than 12z. I'm speculating that the GFS may be struggling with convective parameterization. Definitely can't rule out the more southern camp though.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

My issue with the ECMWF/EPS/NAM is their tendency to overamplify, I mean I would be shocked if this thing bottomed out at like 975, impossible no, unlikely yes in my opinion. So that strength change will dictate a lot of changes downstream. Not to mention that the ECMWF/EPS had moved south and east for like 5 runs in a row. Its solution is shaky as well.

[A-L-E-K]

Ready 2 b buried

[Stebo]

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Ready 2 b buried

I thought it was here comes the rain again, or was it miss south stank, I forget.

[beavis1729]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

Ready 2 b buried

Since this is a marginal set-up to begin with, it would help if Lake Michigan temps were actually near normal or slightly below. 

Typically, lake water temps are at their annual minimum in early March.

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, beavis1729 said:

Since this is a marginal set-up to begin with, it would help if Lake Michigan temps were actually near normal or slightly below. 

Typically, lake water temps are at their annual minimum in early March.

I would be concerned about boundary layer issues for Chicago, the brunt of the snow there would be coming during the day in marginal temps to begin with. If rates can overcome then it should be alright, otherwise there will be issues.