Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Seems like we say this every storm, but the lack of consensus getting closer to the event is ridiculous. How are the pros supposed to forecast this for John Q public who has no weather knowledge but will bash away if the forecast is wrong? It's ridiculous. I just flew in this morning to empty my house i just sold. i'm loving this weather. Sun feels great. I'm supposed to fly out Friday and need to make a decision today if I'm gonna stay until sunday for this storm lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: IWX discussion largely discounting the GFS and thinking ratios will be 6:1 or 7:1. Considering how they discounted the GFS last week and we got completely nuked by the ice, would be funny if the GFS verifies AGAIN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 And this is why I like March snows. They melt within a few days the best kind of snow there is.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Nam is coming in pretty strong this run compared to last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: What do we think? Cut these totals on the 10:1 map in half? As much as I personally dislike the snow depth change maps, as they can be often times too low, this will be one of the times that they are closer to reality…maybe with a mix of kuchera in there a bit too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Nam is coming in pretty strong this run compared to last. eurythmics.mp3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, A-L-E-K said: eurythmics.mp3 Rather that than the lame shit the 48 hour HRRR is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 yeah, shame about the airmass tho because this is hotness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 is this good!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 area of 3 hr qpf over 1" over cary#s that run brutal rainer for hoosier 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: yeah, shame about the airmass tho because this is hotness Maybe this is just one of those where some how it overcomes the shitty warm antecedent air mass and we get pounded just cause? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 18z NAM snow depth and Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 So the NAM ends up being 6mb stronger and still SE. That's a third solution to the situation ig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 needs 2 happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: needs 2 happen looks like the NAM from the old days when we would always get 1 huge run before it came back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 The context of that NAM run with the gorgeous weather today is hilarious. Is the Chicago climate now one of Texas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 hours ago, Stebo said: And this is why I like March snows. They melt within a few days Not big on snow cover eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 17 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: That’s f*cking brutal 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 hours ago, Lightning said: It is obvious that the excitement of this storm is greatly diminishing in this thread. This thread is alive and well now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 I mean if you look at it this way, the NAM and Euro are in pretty good agreement… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, NEILwxbo said: I mean if you look at it this way, the NAM and Euro are in pretty good agreement… And the GEFS isn't far off... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 40 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: is this good!!!!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 hours ago, beavis1729 said: If I lived in MSP, I'd go with B+...maybe A- at best due to the warmth. C’mon man this is a joke right? We haven’t had wall to wall cold, but you aren’t gonna have 70”+ of snowfall around these parts with polar air suppression all winter long. 100% snow cover in DJF, much of it double digit depth. Multiple 12”+ storms, and had some days that stayed below zero. It’s been a weird ice fishing season with deep snowpack that insulated the lakes early and kept ice from getting as thick as years past, but there’s still plenty of ice houses out there. This is an A+ winter, I work outside so I can do without the punishing cold we usually get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 15 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: That’s f*cking brutal Dude was catching up on this thread, saw that map, and was going to try and tag you to say “brutal.” Like ALEK says, it’s going to be a beautiful spring around here with the trees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, michaelmantis said: I am the "weather guy" for my family and the one who gets all the texts about "what is the real forecast". I saw a local Chicago met toss up a bar chart of 4 models ranging from 1.2 inches to 10 inches. I can't see how that is helpful for the general public. I told my family to be aware Friday morning there may be some significant snow during the day or there could be a cold messy mix. It almost seems like a "impact scale" should be the way this is publicly communicated. 1 inch of snow during rush hour is more impactful than 3 inches of snow overnight on a weekend. Regardless, the NWS will never win. They are in the bad position of being seen as too conservative, too agressive, late to the game, etc all at the same time! Beautifully said. Same here. I'm the weather guy that everyone asks. And yes, the NWS can never win. What's even worse, even IF they get it right, you have people from the outskirts of the main forecast area who got either less or more than the heart of the area slapping on the criticism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: C’mon man this is a joke right? We haven’t had wall to wall cold, but you aren’t gonna have 70”+ of snowfall around these parts with polar air suppression all winter long. 100% snow cover in DJF, much of it double digit depth. Multiple 12”+ storms, and had some days that stayed below zero. It’s been a weird ice fishing season with deep snowpack that insulated the lakes early and kept ice from getting as thick as years past, but there’s still plenty of ice houses out there. This is an A+ winter, I work outside so I can do without the punishing cold we usually get. As I said above, let beavis be beavis. As a reminder he didn't give 2013-14 an A if I recall. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said: It's ridiculous. I just flew in this morning to empty my house i just sold. i'm loving this weather. Sun feels great. I'm supposed to fly out Friday and need to make a decision today if I'm gonna stay until sunday for this storm lol. Jan 25 was the only well modeled event I can recall locally this winter here. Some are still without power in Monroe County a week after their "Winter weather advisory" ice storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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