Cary67 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 GFS track looks like every cutter solution that's near Chicago the last 2-3 yrs. Southside or IKK over to DTW. Waiting for the Euro to fold. NAM NW but still out of its range. Least likely Ricky solution will probably win out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 6z Euro The shift southeast began with the 00z, and continues with the 06z. Full whiff by 00z for northern IL most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 playing catchup on the shrivel job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 This literally made me lol. Deep low in southern Indiana with cold rain to the north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 northern stream just doa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 17 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 6z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: This literally made me lol. Deep low in southern Indiana with cold rain to the north. RGEM a trash model, but this depiction is believable. Airmass is garbage. Look at most models, areas to the west that miss out are sitting in the mid 40's on Friday. It's all dynamic cooling for those that see any snow. And even then, temps are like 32-34. It's probably going to be a much more narrow snow band than being shown. Of course for who...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 24 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 6z Euro Yes please and thank you. But I'm sure by tomorrow it will be a miss se. Lol. Funny how days ago this was a miss se, then trended to a miss nw, now probably trending back to what it originally showed. Oh meteorology. How I love/hate you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The shift southeast began with the 00z, and continues with the 06z. Full whiff by 00z for northern IL most likely. Yep and feel like if cold air was in place it would be suppressed SE. At some point wonder how the he** NW LOT ever received snows from a cutter solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 for the naysayers: https://wgntv.com/weather/weather-blog/the-major-st-valentines-day-snowstorm-of-1990/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 looking like another nowcasting event for Friday. I wonder if the GFS will pull out another win here in SE Michigan/ SW Ontario? Bright note> Lake Erie is 100% ice free this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 days out and every map you guys post looks wildly different. From a novice observer it seems the models get worse every year. *Feels* like storms used to be nailed down much sooner even just 5 years ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 hours ago, Chicago WX said: RGEM a trash model, but this depiction is believable. Airmass is garbage. Look at most models, areas to the west that miss out are sitting in the mid 40's on Friday. It's all dynamic cooling for those that see any snow. And even then, temps are like 32-34. It's probably going to be a much more narrow snow band than being shown. Of course for who...who knows. It's not really that trash. It's done well at times, within 72 hours. Has a nice 12+ stripe accross metro detroit, similar to gfs. Is the euro gonna score a coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 29 minutes ago, King James said: 2 days out and every map you guys post looks wildly different. From a novice observer it seems the models get worse every year. *Feels* like storms used to be nailed down much sooner even just 5 years ago One thing to consider is that the biases of each model used to be known very well by many. In the past 10 or so years the models get updated more frequently and the biases are just not as well known. Just as you begin to learn a model biases nowadays it seems to get updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jendoc Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 2 hours ago, Baum said: for the naysayers: https://wgntv.com/weather/weather-blog/the-major-st-valentines-day-snowstorm-of-1990/ I remember that storm. I was in high school. A friend and I took a walk in it. So much snow, but it was beautiful. It would be nice to see one good storm before winter says farewell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 GFS more or less the same as 6z, RGEM a bit NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 The Euro is going to have to budge eventually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 GFS likes the area in MI that got hit the hardest with ice last week for the most snow this time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 NAM has 10” for KMCI. GFS has them smoking cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 GEFS with a solid bump back NW. I would be very fine with a big thump and a night off of work. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 It is obvious that the excitement of this storm is greatly diminishing in this thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Lightning said: It is obvious that the excitement of this storm is greatly diminishing in this thread. 28 posts in the last 8 hrs. isn't killing it, but not bad for a Wednesday morning 48 hrs. out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, Lightning said: It is obvious that the excitement of this storm is greatly diminishing in this thread. People are scared is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 28 minutes ago, Lightning said: It is obvious that the excitement of this storm is greatly diminishing in this thread. Part of it is that the big dog potential, as expected, has gone the way of the Dodo. Still has the potential to be a decent event though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Just now, Powerball said: Part of it is that the big dog potential, as expected, has gone the way of the Dodo. Still has the potential to be a decent event though. I'd imagine that like always, whoever ends up in any dominant banding or manages to get snow from start to finish could do pretty damn well but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, Baum said: People are scared is all. people should have never gotten invested several days out from a thread the needle potential in a not so great pattern in the first place. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: people should have never gotten invested several days out from a thread the needle potential in a not so great pattern in the first place. Also the fun of the storm goes away when it melts practically the next day or two. Bring on Spring! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: people should have never gotten invested several days out from a thread the needle potential in a not so great pattern in the first place. That's all this climo can offer 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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