March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm

[SchaumburgStormer]

A really nice sunset: storm total 

[Malacka11]

  On 3/4/2023 at 7:00 AM, SchaumburgStormer said:

A really nice sunset: storm total 

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It's okay we'll bag the next one. Lol.

[Torchageddon]

I measured in different spots 8-10 cm or 4". Drifting was present of course. It was light-mod snow the heavy stuff didn't get here. This all occurred in 3 hours. I don't have a snowboard 

[A-L-E-K]

These busters are getting old

Totals were terrible 

[michsnowfreak]

  On 3/4/2023 at 6:13 AM, Stebo said:

4.3" here at home, idk if any compacted, I'll assume so but that is what was down when I got home. Getting kinda windy too.

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Not sure if you got any rain/sleet, but it absolutely compacted here after pouring rain/sleet. 3.5 wet snow + rain/sleet + 2.0 wet snow = depth 4.2 of absolute concrete. 

DTW finished with 6.2", liquid total 1.11". Morning depth 5". With 6.2" at DTW, they have leap frogged me on season total, sitting at 27.4". My 5.5" puts me at 27.1". Love this lol:

WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  THUNDERSTORM                                                        
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          
  HEAVY SNOW                                                          
  SNOW                                                                
  LIGHT SNOW                                                          
  FOG                                                                 
  FOG W/VISIBILITY <= 1/4 MILE                                        
  HAZE                                                                
  BLOWING SNOW        

[michsnowfreak]

  On 3/4/2023 at 1:56 PM, A-L-E-K said:

These busters are getting old

Totals were terrible 

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Ratios were an issue (as feared) more than qpf for the immediate south burbs. It was like when you pour water in sand to make a sand castle. 
 

[cyclone77]

Nice cutoff there on the northwest side.  Looks like Peoria just barely missed out.

 

[Jonger]

[A-L-E-K]

Get it jon

[Chambana]

Some of the most insane sustained winds I’ve seen around these parts in quite sometime. CMI recorded a 70mph wind gust, with multiple trees uprooted, power outages, tree damage. 
 

while the snow didn’t really stick, the conditions were just legit for quite awhile. Such a dynamic system. 

[AWMT30]

Gotta give it up to the GFS here locally... Although we did not get the numbers it was showing and its's slight bump north there overall it held steady on the storm while the other models had it south for a time. 

[Cary67]

I would of thought the CMC and possibly the Ukie did the best from longer range with this system.

 

[cyclone77]

Kind of an interesting image here.  If you look closely you can see sort of a U-shaped boundary between heavier snowpack and lower snowpack.  I remember seeing a feature move south on radar yesterday, almost looked like an outflow boundary moving south against the northward moving precip at the time.  It was the transition from rain to snow, where sort of a cold pool had made it down and had changed the precip over to all snow at the surface.  Looks like it made it down to about where those arrows are.  

 

[SolidIcewx]

  On 3/4/2023 at 3:16 PM, AWMT30 said:

Gotta give it up to the GFS here locally... Although we did not get the numbers it was showing and its's slight bump north there overall it held steady on the storm while the other models had it south for a time. 

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For the sake of power outages I was kinda happy when it changed over for a bit I think it helped the metro. The trees were weighed down more then the ice storm

[RCNYILWX]

  On 3/4/2023 at 3:27 PM, Cary67 said:

I would of thought the CMC and possibly the Ukie did the best from longer range with this system.
 

The CMC was not good, right for the wrong reasons in the Chicago metro. It was too weak and too far south with the surface low, and didn't capture the dynamic cooling that occurred to support the accums of 2-5" of paste in the southeast 1/3 of the CWA. It only gets credit for having the farther south precip swath.

GFS operational did fairly well and then once the ECMWF adjusted, it did pretty well, not a great performance overall though because it was too far north until pretty late in the game. We only have the UKMET via Pivotal Wx, but it did perform pretty well at a longer lead time.

NAMs performed the worst of the models we commonly utilize. HRRR and other CAMs did well with capturing the high winds in Central IL and IN.

This event was also a good case for the algorithm snow maps to be banned. Forecast positive snow depth change was the best option for snow amounts.

[Powerball]

The  snowfall map that were showing 12-20" were great for laughs though

[Snowstorms]

About 11" here. Nice paste job. One of the heaviest snows I've ever shovelled. The thunder snow last night was epic though. 

[SolidIcewx]

  On 3/4/2023 at 2:01 PM, michsnowfreak said:

Ratios were an issue (as feared) more than qpf for the immediate south burbs. It was like when you pour water in sand to make a sand castle. 
 

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I think this winter will be known for the destructive nature of the winter storms we have gotten

[Lightning]

Ended up with 12".  It was a great storm.  We just spent the past 5 hours outside playing, shoveling and did a 4 mile snow walk.  Now it is time to rest.

[dmc76]

West and NW burbs of Detroit 8-11" 

[Lightning]

  On 3/4/2023 at 4:33 PM, SolidIcewx said:

For the sake of power outages I was kinda happy when it changed over for a bit I think it helped the metro. The trees were weighed down more then the ice storm

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My neighbors car canopy collapsed last night.  We were surprised as it was relatively new. 

[sbnwx85]

Ended up with 3” on pavement. Around 5”-6” on grass. Not the big dog I was hoping for but it was fun to track and walking around in the death band was a blast. I’ll take what I can get.

[mollydog]

Finished with 10” in Auburn Hills. Lost power and internet. We also lost two trees. Not going to lie, kind of done with this winter. Beautiful but destructive is how I would describe it.


.

[OHweather]

  On 3/4/2023 at 4:40 PM, RCNYILWX said:

The CMC was not good, right for the wrong reasons in the Chicago metro. It was too weak and too far south with the surface low, and didn't capture the dynamic cooling that occurred to support the accums of 2-5" of paste in the southeast 1/3 of the CWA. It only gets credit for having the farther south precip swath.

GFS operational did fairly well and then once the ECMWF adjusted, it did pretty well, not a great performance overall though because it was too far north until pretty late in the game. We only have the UKMET via Pivotal Wx, but it did perform pretty well at a longer lead time.

NAMs performed the worst of the models we commonly utilize. HRRR and other CAMs did well with capturing the high winds in Central IL and IN.

This event was also a good case for the algorithm snow maps to be banned. Forecast positive snow depth change was the best option for snow amounts.

 

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Was looking at the HRRR positive depth change, it did pretty well yesterday morning with the max swath (and maybe was just a tad too low on some on the fringes in eastern IL?). I thought the rates/QPF could support12”+ lollis where the band would pivot between N IN/SE MI/S ON (figured when rates were really heavy ratios would come up enough to allow for that kind of accumulation) but it seems like about 11” of concrete was the most anyone could muster. 
 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Got 10 inches of pure sludgey concrete. Credit to the NWS offices, the six to ten call panned out well

[Jonger]

Models getting quite impressive these days.

 

[Stevo6899]

  On 3/4/2023 at 5:01 PM, dmc76 said:

West and NW burbs of Detroit 8-11" 

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In a fairly short period of time too. 5-midnight. Often it takes 12+ hours to get 6-12. Another thing is the clearing after a snowstorm. We can go weeks without seeing the sun, but its amazing how often there's clear skies the next morning after a storm.

[SolidIcewx]

  On 3/4/2023 at 7:56 PM, Stevo6899 said:

In a fairly short period of time too. 5-midnight. Often it takes 12+ hours to get 6-12. Another thing is the clearing after a snowstorm. We can go weeks without seeing the sun, but its amazing how often there's clear skies the next morning after a storm.

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I know right I seen the moon and starts by about 2am last night

[RogueWaves]

  On 3/4/2023 at 7:56 PM, Stevo6899 said:

In a fairly short period of time too. 5-midnight. Often it takes 12+ hours to get 6-12. Another thing is the clearing after a snowstorm. We can go weeks without seeing the sun, but its amazing how often there's clear skies the next morning after a storm.

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Almost a given we get a nice sunny day after a S stream SW hits and departs. Awesome storm, fun to see cars stuck on snowy roads in the metro. Thanks to snow actually accumulating on the pavement this time, plow banks and piles are legit. Only minor negative is I'm still one of these stats:

[michsnowfreak]

  On 3/4/2023 at 4:58 PM, Lightning said:

Ended up with 12".  It was a great storm.  We just spent the past 5 hours outside playing, shoveling and did a 4 mile snow walk.  Now it is time to rest.

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