March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm

[Jonger]

7 strikes recorded within 30 miles.

[SolidIcewx]

Love how the radar says mixing when I only have fat wet flakes and when it was snow I had some rain lol

[SolidIcewx]

[Stevo6899]

5 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Love how the radar says mixing when I only have fat wet flakes and when it was snow I had some rain lol

It's mostly all fatties now, easily 3 inches an hour. Looks like the band may pivot for awhile. Lightning every few mins now. Definitly a once in 20yr or more storm.

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Gotta say, I am jealous, even if there may not be big dog snow totals.

Hold that jealousy. Eating a cold dinner by candlelight here in Canton. Starting to get chilly. Entire complex went dark an hour ago. Rumbles continue. Drive home about 5:30 was a crawl.

 

[SolidIcewx]

Just now, RogueWaves said:

Hold that jealousy. Eating a cold dinner by candlelight here in Canton. Starting to get chilly. Entire complex went dark an hour ago. Rumbles continue. Drive home about 5:30 was a crawl.

 

I’m sorry to hear that… knew there was going to be issues tonight 

[frostfern]

Outer weenie band just produced a nice rumble of thunder here.  The flakes are the biggest I've seen since the November lake effect storm ( which also had a thunder clap ).

[SolidIcewx]

5 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

It's mostly all fatties now, easily 3 inches an hour. Looks like the band may pivot for awhile.

Flakes seem to be getting smaller and more frequent vis going back down

[mollydog]

Hold that jealousy. Eating a cold dinner by candlelight here in Canton. Starting to get chilly. Entire complex went dark an hour ago. Rumbles continue. Drive home about 5:30 was a crawl.
 

Oh no! Hope they get it back sooner than ours with the ice storm! 6 days!

On another note it is pouring snow with lightning and Thunder. Best snow in years!


.

[nwohweather]

A weather station by me is reporting a 78 mph gust

[SolidIcewx]

4 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

A weather station by me is reporting a 78 mph gust

Thought you guys were the buckeye state not the hurricane state?

[frostfern]

15 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Love how the radar says mixing when I only have fat wet flakes and when it was snow I had some rain lol

There was some sleet on the outer edge when it started here.  I think the sharp back edge is going to move back SE soon, but it's fun at the moment with big flakes and a rumble of thunder.

[IWXwx]

26 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

After heavy rain all day, it has become snow. Sigh.


.

Yep. Same here. At least we got it to flip and could see a couple of inches of cement.

[frostfern]

I don't think I will get more than 2-3" here.  There's sleet mixing in again and the weenie band is shifting SE.

[AWMT30]

I would say about 5" here so far in Canton... 

[michsnowfreak]

Wild storm. Blizzard conditions, then it poured sleet and rain for over an hour, multiple lightning strikes and rumbles of thunder and now back to snow. Over an hour straight of nonstop pinging is frustrating but can't say it wasn't expected here. Was at 3.7" Before it switched to heavy sleet and rain. Snow is so heavy its crazy. Shoveling will be a cardio workout.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Snow is drying up on radar rapidly from the west and south as the low moves away, if only it was a couple hours slower

[sbnwx85]

3" on the pavement and cars

[frostfern]

Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Snow is drying up on radar rapidly from the west and south as the low moves away, if only it was a couple hours slower

It's pretty much over here.    The first hour was grains and pingers that didn't accumulate to anything, then 90 minutes of fatties that accumulated to a little over 2".  Now it's just spitting little grains again.

[LansingWeather]

11 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Snow is drying up on radar rapidly from the west and south as the low moves away, if only it was a couple hours slower

It is really incredible to watch the precip dry up every frame, very fast. Michigan climo is just hard sometimes. I wish this area had the potential of the NE, but no big moisture source around.

 

Definitely looked like an awesome storm to be in though, nice timing as well. A lot of times the heaviest snow is in the wee hours of the morning and is hard to witness.

[Stevo6899]

Yea temps 5 degrees colder, this could've been the 20 inch big daddy. Still looks like 6-10 is attainable. Considering how shitty this winter has been, this will be the third event in about 40 days, 2 of which the area was bullseye for the deformation pivots which is rare around here. Never thought id be at the point in giving the winter a b- but my grade is less on snowcover/temps, and based more on 6+ events and more extreme weather.

[michsnowfreak]

Lost some Balsam limbs. These poor trees lol. 3rd winter storm since Jan 25 that they've taken a beating.

 

 

[NYC10023]

Still ripping here in Port Huron. Lightning about 20 min ago and the seeing the glow of transformers blowing up in the distance. The lake sounds super angry. Hoping to keep electricity but this wind/snow is relentless 

[RogueWaves]

Still in the dark. DTE site did not have good news. They have yet to assess the cause and planned recovery time. Peeked outside and saw a blue green flash. Transformer? Idk, but phone batt is not going to last too long.

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea temps 5 degrees colder, this could've been the 20 inch big daddy. Still looks like 6-10 is attainable. Considering how shitty this winter has been, this will be the third event in about 40 days, 2 of which the area was bullseye for the deformation pivots which is rare around here. Never thought id be at the point in giving the winter a b- but my grade is less on snowcover/temps, and based more on 6+ events and more extreme weather.

This is our 3rd potent Winter storm since January 25th. And to be honest, while snow fell short, the Arctic blizzard conditions were something to see December 22nd as well. I was  recently telling a wx friend from ny about the winter of 2001-02 and how as warm as it was there were a couple real good winter storms. It seems that the real mild Winters heighten our chance for some potent storms. That said, I'll still always take a cold/snowcover winter first.

[Stebo]

Pretty solid storm, sucked that we had about an hour of mixing and lousy rates around it. Otherwise it has been good and the back side after the rain has been going to pound town. I also had thundersnow here at the airport and my friend got video of it up in Novi, solid positive strike

 

 

[Lightning]

11 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Yea temps 5 degrees colder, this could've been the 20 inch big daddy. Still looks like 6-10 is attainable. Considering how shitty this winter has been, this will be the third event in about 40 days, 2 of which the area was bullseye for the deformation pivots which is rare around here. Never thought id be at the point in giving the winter a b- but my grade is less on snowcover/temps, and based more on 6+ events and more extreme weather.

I have been at 31F imby most of the event. It did help as snow basically accumulated immediately.  I agree with a B/B - grade.  The only issue I had was the constant major meltdowns which made skiing horrible around here.

[MikeGold]

Epic thundersnow around 7 pm. 3 or 4 strokes extremely bright/loud; best thundersnow I've seen in many years. Hard to more pleased with how this storm turned out locally. Power is blinking right now....so maybe too much of a good thing?

[Stevo6899]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

This is our 3rd potent Winter storm since January 25th. And to be honest, while snow fell short, the Arctic blizzard conditions were something to see December 22nd as well. I was  recently telling a wx friend from ny about the winter of 2001-02 and how as warm as it was there were a couple real good winter storms. It seems that the real mild Winters heighten our chance for some potent storms. That said, I'll still always take a cold/snowcover winter first.

Yea thats a good point. I think had i been here for that dec 22 event, id have more appreciation for it. Warmer temps, means more moisture. Like I've heard many times, you gotta smell the rain to get the big snows. Also it's been discussed but the lack of clippers has been weird but also we don't seem to cash in that well with better ratio snows and our bigger events happen with temps near 30.

[Powerball]

On 2/26/2023 at 12:30 PM, Powerball said:

The models are really trolling y'all hard with these weenie runs that will inevitably not even come close to fruition...

 

On 2/26/2023 at 12:49 PM, Powerball said:

Call it what you want.

But the current output would be a once in a 50-year event (and that's being generous, I mean how often do we see a widespred 12"+ blizzard along the STL-IND-DTW corridor?) And that's not accounting for the usual shenanigans the models have been pulling with over-amping these storms in the medium range.

That said, it will probably end up being a decent run-of-the-mill storm (6-10" with some blowing/drifitng) for parts of the subforum when all said and done. And given the winter you all have had, it could be far worse.

 

On 3/2/2023 at 12:51 PM, Powerball said:

12" isn't happening for DTW or anywhere. Even if mixing/dry slot issues don't occur, the models aren't overdoing QPF and there's TSSN, the poor ratios will see to that.

6-10" is a good bet though in the heaviest and most persistent banding. Which, given you're looking at convective snowfall rates, is not bad at all.

 

On 3/2/2023 at 1:56 PM, Powerball said:

Not all 977mb lows are created equal, so that means nothing in isolation.

See, for example, the Christmas eve storm which was nearly as strong but produced very underwhelmimg snowfall amounts for most.

Temp profiles, storm track and location/residence/intensity of better lift/instability/moisture are the more relevant factors.

That said, I'll eat crow if 12"+ amounts happen (not including any LES). I'd love for you all to get a big dog.