michsnowfreak Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: You toss that, it isn't going to sleet. Not with these temp profiles. It will either be rain or snow or both. Are you leaning snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 59 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Temps and dew points are solid above the colder guidance. Looking problematic for any accums in our IL counties and even NW IN will probably underperform unless it absolutely rips this afternoon following changeover. Strengthening east northeast flow may help bring in slightly lower dew points and help there, but especially IWX CWA. Up here in the metro, there's forecast to be strong lift in the DGZ, though strong subsidence and some drying in the lower levels northwest of the f-gen banding, per forecast soundings. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Just pouring rain here and temps are torching. Just can’t see any mode to make it snow here. Unfortunately, I see the HRRR is increasing rainfall totals for here. Going to make a bad flooding situation even worse. Bad times. But thanks to you and OHweather for giving us your thoughts. It’s much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Paducah KY ASOS reporting a pressure of 977 milibars at 11 AM CST. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Are you leaning snow? Yes, it will be coming down so hard that rain will struggle to mix in until it's later on at the end and it would be more so drizzle. You being right on the river has the greatest chance of seeing mix but I don't think it will be that much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Precipitation just began here. Started as a rain/sleet/snow mix. Transitioning to rain/snow mix quickly. I hope it’s a good sign it’s starting off as partially frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 18 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: If I’m miserable everyone better be miserable. The snow weenie mantra. This would make everyone miserable… Maybe it was on to something. Still keeping most of the precip as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 36 minutes ago, Powerball said: Not sure what to think of the HRRR. It keeps showing a swath of heavy accumulating sleet, which the profiles aren't really supportive of that. I stopped short of making the leap, but my suspicion is that the HRRR's algos are confusing rimed snowflakes and/or aggregates (with the convective elements) for sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 All models are aligned for 12"+ for Toronto and surrounding areas. HRRR has peak snowfall rates of 2-4" per hour. With strong easterlies off the lake, we could definitely see blizzard like conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Seeing some very high wind gusts just north of the peaking SLP. 66MPH at DEC and 63MPH at SET. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 34 in Toledo with a dew pt of 31ish... Rain/snow mix but temp is coming down to the dew point. We are right on the line of who knows what.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toro99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Don't ever remember seeing a plume spread like this (GRR) at the start of the event: 0" - 17.5", with everything in-between 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Getting some cat paws mixing in here. Winds have definitely picked up from the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Getting some very high wind gusts just north of the peak SLP. 66MPH at DEC and 63MPH at SET. An argument could be made for a swath of High Wind Warnings from central IL across central/northern IN into NW Ohio for the next several hours. Hi-res models have been insistent on a broad corridor of 50-60 MPH gusts just N/NE of the low track this afternoon and early evening and the wind will have an easterly component, which with a wet ground which may make it easier to topple trees. Kind of an interesting set-up because it's all driven by the tightening pressure gradient and unusually strong isallobaric flow (blowing towards the rapid pressure falls from the SW) as opposed to mixing down stronger flow aloft...now that we're starting to see some 40-50+ knot measured gusts I think it gives credence to the idea. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Picking up here in eastern IKK, winds are picking up and some lazy flakes getting mixed in. Miserable outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 You know it's going to be a crazy storm when our morning mets at the tv station are staying past noon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Perhaps I spoke too soon, despite temp being 38.3 I have snow mixing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just upgraded to a high wind warning here for gusts to 60. Had a 54mph gust last hour according to airport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 It seems a couple MI ASOS sites near the IN border are reporting all snow, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 All snow here now. Big wet flakes. Wind gusts getting much more frequent. What a day to work outside. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
therock Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 I can confirm here in DEC it is crazy windy. Winds are screaming out of the NE. 38 and raining hard; my home weather station logged the lowest pressure of 2023 at 29.11" Hg (985mb). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Flurries just starting here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 First flakes at my job site in riverview edit: now it’s sleet lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: First flakes at my job site in riverview edit: now it’s sleet lol lol indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 switched from rain to snow in Warsaw, Indiana in just the past few minutes. Snowing nice. Live Webcam Village at Winona Lake, Indiana, USA (webcamtaxi.com) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Starting to stick to the grass. Coming down pretty good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 According to my Apple Watch the pressure has dropped 3.3mb in the past 45 mins or so 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: According to my Apple Watch the pressure has dropped 3.3mb in the past 45 mins or so rather sophisticated watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Really impressive with unrelenting big flakes and 37F temperature. It’s trying really hard to stick to grassy areas. Even if this turns into several inches I dont see the roads becoming much of an issue with the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIllinoisSnow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just got thundersnow here in GC First time i’ve experienced it, snow is ripping now 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 35 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: All snow here now. Big wet flakes. Wind gusts getting much more frequent. What a day to work outside. Good luck. Finally changing over to snow here in the west end of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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