March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm

[Snowstorms]

10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

2020-21 was not a very mild Winter here at all. Even in the mild Winters the past decade we've had some good cold storms. There's just been a lot of bad luck this year. Hell, even we all had an extremely cold snow fall in December this year. But sorry, it's absolutely ridiculous to say DTW will become the new CMH. Even if our Winters magically warmed 4 degrees, We are surrounded by the Great Lakes which Columbus is not. I mean climate change is real but the way one mild Winter with subpar snow jades people is really over the top.
Dtw temp departures last 10 winters
2022-23: +5.0
2021-22: -0.4
2020-21: +0.3
2019-20: +4.2
2018-19: +0.5
2017-18: -1.1
2016-17: +4.5
2015-16: +5.1
2014-15: -5.1
2013-14: -7.5

I see a lot of (+)'s in there haha. But realistically I ain't just considering it on a trimonthly basis but also on a monthly scale. 2020-21 for the trimonth (DJF) was +0.3C but that doesn't paint the whole picture because Dec and Jan were warm. 2017-18 was cold, yes, but we torched like crazy in February. Ironically we did so in both Feb 2017 and 2016 too. Record warmth I might add. And now Feb 2023 is in there too. 

But also going back to this storm. Detroit could be in the jackpot zone. GFS has a rather robust FGEN band cutting through the area. Could potentially be the first 12"er in a while, no?

[Stebo]

Hi I would like to lock in the Euro and HRRR. I would die if that happened. At this point I have significant confidence that the NAMs are the toss here with everything else is pretty much nailing SEMI. Only areas I am worried about are downriver and Monroe that they could mix a bit. But Josh lives downriver and we know the snow gods wouldn't let that happen, so expect a small nudge SE .

[Powerball]

12" isn't happening for DTW or anywhere. Even if mixing/dry slot issues don't occur, the models aren't overdoing QPF and there's TSSN, the poor ratios will see to that.

6-10" is a good bet though in the heaviest and most persistent banding. Which, given you're looking at convective snowfall rates, is not bad at all.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

12" isn't happening for DTW or anywhere. Even if mixing/dry slot issues don't occur, the models aren't overdoing QPF and there's TSSN, the poor ratios will see to that.

6-10" is a good bet though in the heaviest and most persistent banding. Which, given you're looking at convective snowfall rates, is not bad at all.

I'd be uncomfortable saying anything higher than 6 in DTW as of now but if a bit of a south adjustment happens 8-10 is possible

[Stebo]

5 minutes ago, Powerball said:

12" isn't happening for DTW or anywhere. Even if mixing/dry slot issues don't occur, the models aren't overdoing QPF and there's TSSN, the poor ratios will see to that.

6-10" is a good bet though in the heaviest and most persistent banding. Which, given you're looking at convective snowfall rates, is not bad at all.

You are underestimating the power of the FGEN bands and if they persist over an area I absolutely could see someone get and exceed 12. There is a reason that one of the more notoriously drier models, the HRRR, is going absolutely bananas.

[ILSNOW]

12z EPS

[sbnwx85]

 

1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

12z EPS

@Baumcan we lock this in? My point and click is at 5"-9". The mets at my TV station (aka work) were still going with a broad 2"-4" across the area this morning. I wonder if they'll bump it up this afternoon. 

[DaveNay]

I'm leaving from DKB at 0700 tomorrow and driving down I65 to Louisville. I'll have the dashcam running the whole way and can upload any tasty bits. Too bad I'm not set up for live streaming.

[michsnowfreak]

22 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I see a lot of (+)'s in there haha. But realistically I ain't just considering it on a trimonthly basis but also on a monthly scale. 2020-21 for the trimonth (DJF) was +0.3C but that doesn't paint the whole picture because Dec and Jan were warm. 2017-18 was cold, yes, but we torched like crazy in February. Ironically we did so in both Feb 2017 and 2016 too. Record warmth I might add. And now Feb 2023 is in there too. 

But also going back to this storm. Detroit could be in the jackpot zone. GFS has a rather robust FGEN band cutting through the area. Could potentially be the first 12"er in a while, no?

I don't think anyone sees a foot but could be good rates somewhere. 

[Chicago916]

9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

12z EPS

With a mean like that, there must be some crazy, impossible totals on some of the ensemble members through NE IL.

[ILSNOW]

1 minute ago, Chicago916 said:

With a mean like that, there must be some crazy, impossible totals on some of the ensemble members through NE IL.

Maybe RC or Chicago Storm can share if the have it.

[Malacka11]

5 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

With a mean like that, there must be some crazy, impossible totals on some of the ensemble members through NE IL.

"Impossible"

[TheRegionRat]

2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Maybe RC or Chicago Storm can share if the have it.

RC wrote the LOT update around 11AM CST.  Quoting here:

We`ll see if the
ECMWF suite rolling out around the top of the hour can help bring
some clarity.

 

 

 

[DaveNay]

4 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

"Impossible"

[Chicago Storm]

Maybe RC or Chicago Storm can share if the have it.

.

[ILSNOW]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

.

thanks

[dmc76]

Winter are trash south of the 41st 

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, dmc76 said:

Winter are trash south of the 41st 

Unless you're in TX and OK apparently, as of late...

[SolidIcewx]

And I’ll be using this again. I look forward to huge rates if that plays out. Hope Chicago area gets some wealth too

[Harry]

30 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

 

@Baumcan we lock this in? My point and click is at 5"-9". The mets at my TV station (aka work) were still going with a broad 2"-4" across the area this morning. I wonder if they'll bump it up this afternoon. 

 

Lock it! 

[nwohweather]

35 minutes ago, Stebo said:

You are underestimating the power of the FGEN bands and if they persist over an area I absolutely could see someone get and exceed 12. There is a reason that one of the more notoriously drier models, the HRRR, is going absolutely bananas.

Or just underestimating the power of this storm itself. 977 MB at Hour 36 is pretty bonkers for this part of the country

[dmc76]

Hrrrr about to dump a load on Metro Detroit 

[tuanis]

18z HRRR quite a bit further north with the low and precip shield vs. 12z, taking it over Indy instead of the Ohio River. Good news for the south burbs. With a track and deep low like that, you'd expect a broader area of precip in the cold sector, but it's 2023.

[Chicago Storm]

ya’ll are overusing the “lock of the week” meme.


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[Powerball]

3 minutes ago, tuanis said:

18z HRRR quite a bit further north with the low and precip shield vs. 12z, taking it over Indy instead of the Ohio River. Good news for the south burbs. With a track and deep low like that, you'd expect a broader area of precip in the cold sector, but it's 2023.

The 18z HRRR is also stronger with the low, a bit warmer overall, and it backed off a bit with the snowfall amounts.

[sbnwx85]

4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ya’ll are overusing the “lock of the week” meme.


.

18z HRRR

[MidwestChaser]

4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ya’ll are overusing the “lock of the week” meme.


.

[Baum]

8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ya’ll are overusing the “lock of the week” meme.


.

No worries. I have another one ready in the event of the inevitable.

[Baum]

1 minute ago, MidwestChaser said:

stole my programming. But love the new avatar. As they say, "shock me" or is it "snowblind"?

[tuanis]

9 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The 18z HRRR is also stronger with the low, a bit warmer overall, and it backed off a bit with the snowfall amounts.

It's a solid 90 mile shift west with the main axis, at least in Indiana. Still puts out some impressive totals.