Harry Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 7 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: Meanwhile the Ukie doesn't even have any precipitation in Chicago and points North Well we now have our new southern outlier. Will be interesting to see the latest MJO forecast in a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 19 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Last 3 runs of the GEFS 24-hour 10:1 snowfall mean. Edit: Added 00z GEFS members. Pretty large spread this close to the event. I like where a majority of them sit. Still nail biting though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Harry said: Well we now have our new southern outlier. Will be interesting to see the latest MJO forecast in a little bit. Where's the rain/snow line or is it all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Harry said: I like where a majority of them sit. Still nail biting though. I like it better when the amped solutions are nailing me, not Green Bay. Much better than having to wish for a weaker system to avoid rain / mixed-garbage. The snow magnets are out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: Last 3 runs of the GEFS 24-hour 10:1 snowfall mean. Edit: Added 00z GEFS members. Pretty large spread this close to the event. Ensemble #13 is pretty ridiculous with the 3+ feet of snow in downtown Chicago within only 18 hours. Imagine getting feet of concrete snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 The 00z Euro bumped back northwest some from the 18z run. It remains a very tough forecast. Impacts will be higher end in the heart of the band within the CWA, barring a UKMET or GEM like outcome. Lapse rates in the DGZ are progged to exceed 7C/km and there's quite a bit of -epv above strong fgen. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 00z Euro bumped back northwest some from the 18z run. It remains a very tough forecast. Impacts will be higher end in the heart of the band within the CWA, barring a UKMET or GEM like outcome. Lapse rates in the DGZ are progged to exceed 7C/km and there's quite a bit of -epv above strong fgen. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Oh kind soul, could you slide that EPS data when the time arises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Oh kind soul, could you slide that EPS data when the time arises 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Wow. Jokingly, it really doesn't get much more bullseyeish than that for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 12km nam just doesn't want to join the se party. It's very stubborn. 3km nam is playing nicer. 06z hrrr was a dream run and love what EPS is showing. I honestly still don't know what to expect. Hopefully models will be in better agreement tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 12km nam just doesn't want to join the se party. It's very stubborn. 06z hrrr was a dream run and love what EPS is showing. I honestly still don't know what to expect. Hopefully models will be in better agreement tomorrow. 12km NAM definitely shifted SE with the low track and snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Same with the 3km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I guess I didn't notice cuz it still scalped me on snowfall. Ha. 12km that is. Now that I look at sfc low track you're right. It definitely is more se. Just not as noticeable in snowfall in my area. Going to be tricky as it will be a tight zone of intense dynamic cooling. Hard to sniff out till you get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 I see LOT 1st to bite bullet on WSW. Strong work. Curious if DVN or ILX will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 What will be to a lot of folks' shock, DTX went with a WSW for their entire CWA... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: I see LOT 1st to bite bullet on WSW. Strong work. Curious if DVN or ILX will follow. A little odd of there being nothing for the border & NW counties. Even if Chicago were a “bullseye”, there seems to be enough snow potential for at least a winter weather advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 7 minutes ago, Sciascia said: A little odd of there being nothing for the border & NW counties. Even if Chicago were a “bullseye”, there seems to be enough snow potential for at least a winter weather advisory. That's probably a time contingent issue. They will issue those today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 51 minutes ago, Sciascia said: A little odd of there being nothing for the border & NW counties. Even if Chicago were a “bullseye”, there seems to be enough snow potential for at least a winter weather advisory. LOT can update this graphic and slide it SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 overnight update: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 DTX rolling out watch’s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 GRR hoisted watches also and thinking 6”+. Grids have about 7” on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Wow DTX did a great job with their overnight discussion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 On 2/26/2023 at 6:04 AM, A-L-E-K said: Miss south stank 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: there it is. running late today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 6 hours ago, Harry said: I like where a majority of them sit. Still nail biting though. The one thing I like about this storm is the potential for few good hours of 2"/hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, Lightning said: The one thing I like about this storm is the potential for few good hours of 2"/hour rates. from Northern Ind. office: WHERE SNOW FALLS FRIDAY, RATES COULD REACH 3" PER HOUR. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 20% chance for a further north solution is still a chance I’m willing to ride given how the model swings have been. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 13 minutes ago, Sciascia said: 20% chance for a further north solution is still a chance I’m willing to ride given how the model swings have been. Would assume this is LOT's faith in the NAM products 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Euro caves 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 On 3/1/2023 at 3:41 AM, A-L-E-K said: Remember when the euro was good tough times is it just all the agw fucking up the algos, what's going on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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