Chicago Storm Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: I thought it was here comes the rain again, or was it miss south stank, I forget. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 My issue with the ECMWF/EPS/NAM is their tendency to overamplify, I mean I would be shocked if this thing bottomed out at like 975, impossible no, unlikely yes in my opinion. So that strength change will dictate a lot of changes downstream. Not to mention that the ECMWF/EPS had moved south and east for like 5 runs in a row. Its solution is shaky as well.It's less than 2 days out though. The Euro was too amped 4-5 days out from the pre Christmas storm but at this range it was fine. A solid majority of the EPS members support the op. Also, different setup, but it absolutely knocked the ice storm forecast out of the park. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: It's less than 2 days out though. The Euro was too amped 4-5 days out from the pre Christmas storm but at this range it was fine. A solid majority of the EPS members support the op. Also, different setup, but it absolutely knocked the ice storm forecast out of the park. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk See out this way the GFS was the best for the ice storm, and has been the better model as of late, it locked in 4 days in advance and didnt move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Stebo said: See out this way the GFS was the best for the ice storm, and has been the better model as of late, it locked in 4 days in advance and didnt move. Gotta agree with this. Recall the crazy amounts of snow the euro held into up around msp as well? Great thing about these forums and recent events is it doesn't take long to see how the models etc performed which I am about to do as I know I have forgotten things even recent. One thing I do know is the offices here etc had the heaviest ice too far north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Well it's model madness for my area. 12k nam misses me barely to nw with snow. 3km nam hits me but gradient very close. Gfs a miss well east. Hrrr not only misses with snow but also rain, lol. Euro is pound town. So at this point I have no clue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 hours ago, Malacka11 said: That's one of the hawtest model images I've seen in recent years. Wow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 Gotta agree with this. Recall the crazy amounts of snow the euro held into up around msp as well? Great thing about these forums and recent events is it doesn't take long to see how the models etc performed which I am about to do as I know I have forgotten things even recent. One thing I do know is the offices here etc had the heaviest ice too far north. I can confidently say that part of the problem with the ice storm forecast out there was the new ptype methodology we were forced into this winter. We had imo a much better system in place for several years up until last year. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I can confidently say that part of the problem with the ice storm forecast out there was the new ptype methodology we were forced into this winter. We had imo a much better system in place for several years up until last year. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Wow. Sorry to hear that. Hopefully they revisit it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 ILX totally discounting almost any snow potential across the area and barely touched on the south trend in some model guidance. Though the far nw solutions can't be denied and are definitely within realm of possibilities I would have touched more on snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Euro goes south and east 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 8 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Euro goes south and east The once mighty Euro is about as worthless as any of the other models now. Feel bad for mets who have to make professional forecasts using these incompetent tools. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 10 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Euro goes south 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: First call: 2 inches of cement. Call suddenly in huge danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 15 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Euro goes south and east This is a clown show. I guess MBY being on the line of various model solutions, I've noticed the shifts more, but come on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Well the GFS and EURO are now together, high res is anything but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Easy toss move it a county or two back NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 11 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The once mighty Euro is about as worthless as any of the other models now. Feel bad for mets who have to make professional forecasts using these incompetent tools. That’s why it’s a skilled profession and not called model watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Can someone show upstate ny 18z euro snow map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Nope that's it may settle a bit further SE. Cutters affecting this area hit southside-IKK to DTW. Have been for several yrs now. Keeps Michsnowfreak padding those stats in SEMI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Well the GFS and EURO are now together, high res is anything but One of these things is not like the other. Insanity this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Ready 2 b buried update: back to miss south stank. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 This is gonna be a 00z suite to remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: update: back to miss south stank. Would love to see EPS if you can share 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: eurythmics.mp3 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: update: back to miss south stank. Preview of update after tonight's 0z NAM above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Would love to see EPS if you can share i can do so when they hit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: i can do so when they hit. My guess they shift SE with the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 On 2/27/2023 at 5:53 PM, Frog Town said: It'll be back to it's Sunday solutions by 12Z Wednesday. Got lots of laughs when posted but now it's not so funny. When you've seen this happen so many times over the Winter, it doesn't take a MET degree to catch on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 13 minutes ago, Stebo said: My guess they shift SE with the op. They are and by a bit at that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 27 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Would love to see EPS if you can share 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 2, 2023 Share Posted March 2, 2023 Bit flatter of a track too, and definitely south and east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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