March 3-4 Potential Winter Storm

[sbnwx85]

14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

people should have never gotten invested several days out from a thread the needle potential in a not so great pattern in the first place.

This is all I have until baseball season.

[Chicago916]

Um what is the EURO smoking... I thought it used to be king?

[sbnwx85]

What do we think? Cut these totals on the 10:1 map in half? 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Euro slowly trending SE

[Malacka11]

1 minute ago, sbnwx85 said:

What do we think? Cut these totals on the 10:1 map in half? 

I'd still be happy with that tbh

[beavis1729]

35 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

people should have never gotten invested several days out from a thread the needle potential in a not so great pattern in the first place.

Correct...as much as I hate to admit this reality. 

And, even if a certain location hits the jackpot, the snow will melt and/or lose its character within a couple days anyway.  There's just no cold air anywhere.  This has been the most pathetic winter for so many areas of the country south of 45N...it's just laughable.  And I don't want to hear about how snowfall amounts technically aren't that much below normal for some areas; I'm talking the overall feel, temps, SDDs, tenor, etc. And ice storms don't matter, unless it's on top of snow on the ground (which wasn't the case).

And I would still be relatively disappointed north of 45N; just too many thaws.  If I lived in MSP, I'd go with B+...maybe A- at best due to the warmth. 

[roardog]

1 minute ago, beavis1729 said:

Correct...as much as I hate to admit this reality. 

And, even if a certain location hits the jackpot, the snow will melt within a few days anyway.  There's just no cold air anywhere.  This has been the most pathetic winter for so many areas of the country...it's just laughable.  And I don't want to hear about how snowfall amounts aren;t that much below normal for some areas; I'm talking the overall feel, temps, SDDs, tenor, etc.

It’s March now so yes snow retention in Chicago will suck until late next year. 

[beavis1729]

1 minute ago, roardog said:

It’s March now so yes snow retention in Chicago will suck until late next year. 

I guess...but it has sucked the entire winter.

[Stevo6899]

5 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Correct...as much as I hate to admit this reality. 

And, even if a certain location hits the jackpot, the snow will melt and/or lose its character within a couple days anyway.  There's just no cold air anywhere.  This has been the most pathetic winter for so many areas of the country south of 45N...it's just laughable.  And I don't want to hear about how snowfall amounts technically aren't that much below normal for some areas; I'm talking the overall feel, temps, SDDs, tenor, etc. And ice storms don't matter, unless it's on top of snow on the ground (which wasn't the case).

And I would still be relatively disappointed north of 45N; just too many thaws.  If I lived in MSP, I'd go with B+...maybe A- at best due to the warmth. 

Josh will find a way to turn this all against you.

[Stebo]

Euro is still moving southeast to the concensus of the GFS/RDPS/ICON/UKMET. The only stinker is the GDPS which is too warm for appreciable snow until it's east of here. The NAM is way too NW and doesn't even agree with the SREF mean which is much closer to the GFS group. It is still close though for Detroit to get skunked if it shifts a hair north.

[Stebo]

And this is why I like March snows. They melt within a few days

9 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Correct...as much as I hate to admit this reality. 

And, even if a certain location hits the jackpot, the snow will melt and/or lose its character within a couple days anyway.  There's just no cold air anywhere.  This has been the most pathetic winter for so many areas of the country south of 45N...it's just laughable.  And I don't want to hear about how snowfall amounts technically aren't that much below normal for some areas; I'm talking the overall feel, temps, SDDs, tenor, etc. And ice storms don't matter, unless it's on top of snow on the ground (which wasn't the case).

And I would still be relatively disappointed north of 45N; just too many thaws.  If I lived in MSP, I'd go with B+...maybe A- at best due to the warmth. 

 

[beavis1729]

4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Josh will find a way to turn this all against you.

Ha ha - all good, not personal or anything...I just detest our climo and our low standards for winter.

When we have a 980 low in the location where it's at, we should be hoping for/expecting something similar to GHD 1, or Jan 1999...or at minimum a widespread 6-12" storm with no worries about a tiny jackpot area, or temps being marginal, etc.  This is what I mean about everyone's expectations being so low.  It drives me crazy.  We should all be furious about this storm/setup.

[beavis1729]

11 minutes ago, Stebo said:

And this is why I like March snows. They melt within a few days

 

Normally, I hear you.  But when DJF disappoints (which it often does), there's a need to make up for it in Nov/March.

There's always a reason to lower the bar - "the lake is too warm before Dec 15th", "average temps and/or sun angle are increasing quickly after Feb 15th", bad pattern, Index ABCDEFG isn't timed perfectly, on and on and on and on.  How refreshing it would be if we actually had a sacred part of winter with no worries about the pattern - it's just winter because of the calendar.  We don't have this for literally any day.  I'd like it for all of DJF, much less one fooking sacred day.  So, I'm batting 0 for 90 - not good odds.

Heck, it was 60 degrees in early Jan 2008 - at the coldest time of the year.  That's not supposed to happen. It seems like every DJF has several days over 40F, even in good/decent months...which just isn't right.

Feb 2015 was great.  Not saying every Feb needs to be like that - but Feb 2015 should be closer to "expected" than Feb 2023, that's for sure.

We need to turn around the PNA and AMO to have any hope for better times ahead. 

Back to your regularly scheduled programming...

[Baum]

53 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

people should have never gotten invested several days out from a thread the needle potential in a not so great pattern in the first place.

can't resist. Post 12Z model update:

[Stevo6899]

8 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Ha ha - all good, not personal or anything...I just detest our climo and our low standards for winter.

When we have a 980 low in the location where it's at, we should be hoping for/expecting something similar to GHD 1, or Jan 1999...or at minimum a widespread 6-12" storm with no worries about a tiny jackpot area, or temps being marginal, etc.  This is what I mean about everyone's expectations being so low.  It drives me crazy.  We should all be furious about this storm/setup.

Hey I'm behind and agree with everything you've said lol. It's just unfuriating when people justify it with "its our normal climo" bs.

[RCNYILWX]

Euro is still moving southeast to the concensus of the GFS/RDPS/ICON/UKMET. The only stinker is the GDPS which is too warm for appreciable snow until it's east of here. The NAM is way too NW and doesn't even agree with the SREF mean which is much closer to the GFS group. It is still close though for Detroit to get skunked if it shifts a hair north.

With all due respect, describing it that way makes it seem like there's a predetermined outcome. If your take is that the snow swath will end up south of what the 12z Euro op is showing, that's fine. There's no such thing as a model moving toward a consensus. Plus, the GEFS mean is solidly north of the GFS. And the amount of spread in the solutions means there isn't a consensus anyway.

[Chicago916]

3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

With all due respect, describing it that way makes it seem like there's a predetermined outcome. If your take is that the snow swath will end up south of what the 12z Euro op is showing, that's fine. There's no such thing as a model moving toward a consensus. Plus, the GEFS mean is solidly north of the GFS. And the amount of spread in the solutions means there isn't a consensus anyway.

 

Is there a particular model of choice that is best at depicting dynamic cooling?

[Baum]

17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

With all due respect, describing it that way makes it seem like there's a predetermined outcome. If your take is that the snow swath will end up south of what the 12z Euro op is showing, that's fine. There's no such thing as a model moving toward a consensus. Plus, the GEFS mean is solidly north of the GFS. And the amount of spread in the solutions means there isn't a consensus anyway.

 

not to take away from your post but I believe the   GFS consensus from a day ago is now where the Euro consensus is today.

[ILSNOW]

12Z EPS

[Malacka11]

Honestly I like where I sit. 

[SolidIcewx]

1 hour ago, Chicago916 said:

Um what is the EURO smoking... I thought it used to be king?

Euro best friends with Snoop Dogg

[DaveNay]

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

This literally made me lol.  Deep low in southern Indiana with cold rain to the north.

 

This one's guaranteed to happen. I'm driving the entire length of I65 from Gary to Louisville Friday morning and this will be 4.5 hours of misery.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Josh will find a way to turn this all against you.

Beavis can beavis all he wants. Most long-term posters here have long made it known what their preferences with weather are. Not sure why you brought me up, as my ideal Winter is relatively close to beavis's, I just hold actual expectations in check. I don't know any winter lover in the region who is not disappointed with how the Winter turned out. Sometimes it happens. Your ideal Winter is at the far other end of the spectrum from beavis lol.

[michsnowfreak]

Seems like we say this every storm, but the lack of consensus getting closer to the event is ridiculous. How are the pros supposed to forecast this for John Q public who has no weather knowledge but will bash away if the forecast is wrong?

 

[sbnwx85]

First call: 2 inches of cement. 

[tuanis]

12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Seems like we say this every storm, but the lack of consensus getting closer to the event is ridiculous. How are the pros supposed to forecast this for John Q public who has no weather knowledge but will bash away if the forecast is wrong?

If anything, the models often seem to diverge or flip-flop as the event nears. I don't remember that always being the case, but maybe we're remembering things wrong? Is it the pattern? The marginal temps so often this season? The ENSO situation? Model updates? We're less than 48 hours from what could be a pretty high-impact event and it's anyone's guess what will happen. I get low-confidence forecasting, but this is practically NO confidence forecasting.

[michaelmantis]

31 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

12Z EPS

Nice hit for our area if it verifies. I'll take 1/2 of this and then hopefully put away the snowblower for the year. 

[beavis1729]

20 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Seems like we say this every storm, but the lack of consensus getting closer to the event is ridiculous. How are the pros supposed to forecast this for John Q public who has no weather knowledge but will bash away if the forecast is wrong?

 

Good point; I think the answer is probabilistic forecasts. And if John Q Public doesn’t have the skill set to understand probabilities and why that approach is needed in certain situations, then it’s on them. 

[sbnwx85]

IWX discussion largely discounting the GFS and thinking ratios will be 6:1 or 7:1.

[michaelmantis]

4 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Good point; I think the answer is probabilistic forecasts. And if John Q Public doesn’t have the skill set to understand probabilities and why that approach is needed in certain situations, then it’s on them. 

I am the "weather guy" for my family and the one who gets all the texts about "what is the real forecast". 

I saw a local Chicago met toss up a bar chart of 4 models ranging from 1.2 inches to 10 inches. I can't see how that is helpful for the general public. 

I told my family to be aware Friday morning there may be some significant snow during the day or there could be a cold messy mix. 

It almost seems like a "impact scale" should be the way this is publicly communicated. 1 inch of snow during rush hour is more impactful than 3 inches of snow overnight on a weekend. 

Regardless, the NWS will never win. They are in the bad position of being seen as too conservative, too agressive, late to the game, etc all at the same time!