Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[Torch Tiger]

GGEM is a good hit. Looks like 12z ICON but significantly slower

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Out west to the plains it's trending stronger. 

I think the problem is damage is done on that front, sending the 540 thickness where many are "out of the game". Confluence is there but with background warmth.

 

There has been a trend all season for the most part of favored areas with even a marginal air mass that has produced.

[powderfreak]

Nice shift on GFS.

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1 footish is the ceiling here IMO...its not a HECS. I don't like the attenuation and primary struggles. Not complaining...just how I see it.

This one kind of has 2/5/14 vibes....primary slamming into CLE but then hitting a wall of confluence in Quebec. But at this stage, 75 miles in either direction could produce large sensible wx differences than that 2014 event.

[jbenedet]

Just now, dryslot said:

There has been a trend all season for the most part of favored areas with even a marginal air mass that has produced.

Yea you're def in a good spot, as which has been true on the season. The rest of us...

[mahk_webstah]

wow thats a bigger shift north than I would've expected.  I'm barely hangin on to my double diggies.  Need that to drop south a bit.  Honestly it would suck if SNE gets screwed again.  But this is only 1 model and it is the northern outlier...so far.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Nice shift on GFS.

 

lol. Not saying that will happen verbatim but that is like the seasonal gradient right there, to a Tee

[tunafish]

just keep me in the pink and i'll be happy.

wait what?

[dryslot]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Yea you're def in a good spot, as which has been true on the season. The rest of us...

Its not been kind to many south of the CNH for the most part this season, At least some look to cash this week, Nothing any of us can control it, I'm kind of just looking at this from a distance now, Need to get thru tomorrow and Thursday's, The Thursday one will have some weight of where Saturday goes too.

[SnoSki14]

It's not done trending north. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

just keep me in the pink and i'll be happy.

wait what?

I really could go some where with this..........

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice shift on GFS.

 

Not for where people live  

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's not done trending north. 

is this a reasoned response or just an emotional one?  if so, reasoning please, this is the NE forum.

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie looks like it held serve from 00z...continues not to be quite as juicy as other models but it likes the idea of a low end warning event for most of SNE/CNE.

[ORH_wxman]

Looking a bit closer at better maps, Ukie trended a bit north, but the result didn't really seem to change much.

[powderfreak]

11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

lol. Not saying that will happen verbatim but that is like the seasonal gradient right there, to a Tee

Even up here not a fan of a H7 low over Watertown, NY… though it translates eastward.

 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

is this a reasoned response or just an emotional one?  if so, reasoning please, this is the NE forum.

Each model run is trending more and more amped and big jumps were made by the southernmost models. 

MJO phase 7 supports an enhanced WAR which supports a phased, powerful system that confluence can't stop. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Each model run is trending more and more amped and big jumps were made by the southernmost models. 

MJO phase 7 supports an enhanced WAR which supports a phased, powerful system that confluence can't stop. 

 

well in new hampshire we did well from north of Manchester without any blocking and I believe phase 7.  I don't see why this would go further north than the GFS shows (which reflects the seasonal gradient basically), but what do I know.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

 

well in new hampshire we did well from north of Manchester without any blocking and I believe phase 7.  I don't see why this would go further north than the GFS shows (which reflects the seasonal gradient basically), but what do I know.

Sure the further north the better but this isn't encouraging.

[dryslot]

Most i think would rather see this one start out further south because the seasonal trend as we get close in is for these to bump north.

[WinterWolf]

Long way to go here…long way. Trailing short wave now too…??? Lots of possibilities in all directions. At least we’re tracking. 

[weathafella]

Yeah JD-this isn’t spring yet-most promising snow progs of the season this time in March.

[Typhoon Tip]

47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Sure the further north the better but this isn't encouraging.

Think of that as jostling around inside a region bounded by a confluence/domain wall you can almost make out there nearing the top right corner of this slide show.  It's not going to get more N, with that there.  What you're seeing in this comparison is jostling within that allowed region.. But it is pressing the NW-N edge of the available space inside that bounded area. 

IF some how for some reason the confluence orientation goes away, than the guidance will have no compunctions about driving this thing straight across James Bay from S to N... But that's would be unlikely, because it would require completely changing the manifold of the local hemispheric circulation mode.

 

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

wrong thread 

[CoastalWx]

Euro gonna be warmer.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro gonna be warmer.

Yep, north trend continues. 

[CoastalWx]

Might be a good burst of snow initially.

[Spanks45]

Good burst of frozen around here, but 980s into Ohio probably won't cut it for long for us in CT.

[dryslot]

Crushed, This run is snow start to Finnish up here.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Looks like it starts to hit a wall in Southern Missouri, keep pushing that south, could help trap the cold air around here

With the primary that strong plowing over CLE, there is no way we keep this all snow. We’ll have to stack it on the front end and hope ip/zr tops it. 
 

Still looks like warning snows before the flip so not too bad verbatim.